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Global Energy and Climate Model Current Policies Scenario (CPS)
…continued policy support, slow the uptake of these new technologies.The CPS sees higher levels of total energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than our other scenarios. This should not be taken as a sign that more energy needs are met in the CPS than in the other scenarios. Slightly higher prices curtail energy service demands in some cases, for example, reducing the distances projected to be travelled by car, while the slowdown in efficiency measures means that more energy is used in the CPS to deliver the same level of energy service compared to other scenarios, for example…
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Electricity 2026 Emissions
…emissions are projected to drop substantially, by an average 11% per year over the forecast period. Global CO2 intensity decline accelerates as low-carbon generation rapidly expands Global CO2-intensity from electricity generation contracted by an estimated 3% in 2025, after a 2.6% reduction in in 2024. An increasing share of renewables and robust output in nuclear energy generation are driving this trend. We forecast CO2 intensity to fall even faster over our forecast period, at an annual average rate of 3.7%, down from 435 g CO2/kWh in 2025 to 360 g CO2/kWh in 2030.Many regions are expected…
- Executive summary
- Demand
- Supply
- Grids
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Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 Executive summary
…to demand in many regions, as they did in 2024. Rising demand from industry, appliances, growing air conditioning use, the expansion of data centres, and ongoing electrification will remain major drivers of strong global electricity demand growth through 2026. As a result, electricity demand is expected to rise more than twice as fast as total energy demand in 2025 and to continue this trend in 2026. Electricity demand in China and India is expected to rise at a more moderate pace in 2025 than the rapid growth seen in 2024. After a 7% surge in 2024, electricity consumption in China…
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COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge 2025: Update Key Findings
New Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) show limited reflection of the pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030 agreed at COP28 Between COP28 and the end of COP30, only about two-thirds of NDCs have been updated (128) and fewer than half of these (53) explicitly reference the global tripling goal. Even fewer (32) contain quantifiable renewable capacity ambitions for 2030. NDCs continue to under-represent current government ambitions for installed renewable capacity by 2030 The NDC 3.0 round does not fully capture countries’ 2030 renewable capacity ambitions in all submitted NDCs. Including 2030 ambitions from previous NDC cycles, total…
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Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 Demand: Global electricity use to grow strongly in 2025 and 2026
…fast as total energy demand over the forecast period. Overall, global electricity consumption will reach a new high of over 29 000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026.Following strong surges in electricity demand in 2024 driven by intense heatwaves and strong economic activity in the industrial and services sectors, the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) and India are expected to see more moderate growth rates in 2025. By contrast, US electricity demand is set to increase at a faster rate than in 2024, boosted by power consumption from expanding data centres. After a modest rebound in 2024 following two…
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Global Energy Review 2025 Electricity
…Electricity demand growth surged in 2024 Global electricity demand increased by 4.3% in 2024, a step change from the 2.5% growth seen in 2023. The average pace of electricity demand growth from 2010 to 2023 was 2.7%, double the rate of total energy demand growth over the same period. Electrification picked up across sectors, raising electricity demand in most major economies in 2024. China accounted for the largest share of electricity consumption growth, but increases were seen globallyAlmost all regions saw an acceleration in the rate of electricity consumption growth in 2024 compared with the annual average…
- Key findings
- Global trends
- Oil
- Natural gas
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Global Hydrogen Review 2025 Trade and infrastructure
Highlights Trade is a major driver of project announcements. Nearly 45% of low-emissions hydrogen from announced production projects is intended for export, exceeding 16 Mtpa H₂-eq by 2030 if all materialise. Yet export-oriented projects are less likely to reach the investment stage, with only 5% having done so. These projects tend to be large scale, lacking off-takers. More than half are in emerging and developing economies, where affordable capital and export infrastructure may be limited.Some governments are supporting the large-scale offtake of low-emissions hydrogen by providing funds for long-term premiums through competitive auctions. However…
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Ukraine’s Energy Security A pre-winter assessment
…and passive defences.Energy security is central to Ukraine’s overall security. Ensuring that Ukrainian citizens retain access to heat and power is of the utmost importance, especially during the cold winter months. While Ukraine has made strong strides in rebuilding and strengthening the resilience of its energy system this past spring and summer, the situation remains fragile, and the risk of huge disruptions and widespread destabilisation remains – particularly if Russia further intensifies targeted attacks or temperatures in the months ahead are colder than expected.This analysis builds on the IEA’s September 2024 report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and…
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility
…its Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC-M). Key uncertainties for EV markets for the medium-term – such as those related to the evolution of trade and industrial policy, downside risks to the economic outlook and the impact of different levels of oil prices – are, however, presented in this chapter of the report.The projections in the STEPS in GEVO-2025 consider historical market data and stated policies up until the end of February 2025. These scenario projections incorporate GDP assumptions from the International Monetary Fund and population assumptions from the United Nations, as described in the 2024 GEC‑M documentation…
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Breakthrough Agenda Report 2025 Road transport
State of the transition Emissions Road sector emissions were just over 6 Gt CO₂ in 2024, 8% higher than in 2015. Growth averaged only 0.2% annually from 2019 to 2024, down from 1.7% per year between 2015 and 2019.Over 60% of road emissions are from passenger cars or vans, followed by trucks (about one-third), and buses and 2/3 wheelers just 7%.Since 2015, emissions in emerging economies (excluding China) have risen sharply, at over 18%, compared to 2.5% in the rest of the world. Cost Closing the purchase price gap between electric and conventional…
- Executive summary
- Power
- Hydrogen
- Road transport
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+ 4 pages
