Global electricity generation will reach multiple new milestones in our 2026-2030 forecast period. This is particularly the case for low-emissions generation sources – renewables and nuclear – which will continue expanding and setting new records. Renewable energy is now outpacing coal, with nuclear generation simultaneously reaching historic highs. Constrained by growth in low-emissions sources, coal-fired generation globally is forecast to record slight declines, where demand growth through 2030 will be met by renewables, natural gas and nuclear. While trends for individual fuels vary by region, a common theme is the strong expansion of solar PV in many power systems. This chapter provides an overview of global supply developments in 2025 and a summary of our forecasts through 2030 for the major economies. A detailed coverage of other individual regions and countries can be found in the Regional Focus section of the report.

Renewable electricity generation is expected to rise each year by roughly 1 050 TWh. Of this, more than 600 TWh on average is set to come from solar PV alone annually to 2030, thanks to rapid uptake in many regions of the world amid strong cost declines. In 2025, growth in global electricity generation from solar PV saw the largest year-on-year increase, at 620 TWh, compared to 450 TWh in 2024. Solar PV generation is expected to overtake wind and nuclear by 2026 and hydropower by 2029.

Low-emissions energy sources – renewables, led by solar, and nuclear – will see their share in global electricity generation rise to 50% through 2030, up from 42% in 2025. Strong growth in renewables and a steady rise in both nuclear and gas output in many regions will displace global coal-fired generation in our forecast. Coal use in the power sector is expected to shift to a declining trajectory, with its share of the electricity mix falling to 27% by 2030, from 34% in 2025. 

Low‑emissions sources maintained strong growth momentum in 2025, with renewables rising by 9%. This was slightly lower than the 9.6% increase in 2024, as weather conditions dampened growth in wind and hydropower generation. Nonetheless, 2025 growth was still well above the 6.4% average observed over the past decade. Coal-fired generation remained relatively flat in 2025, following a 1.4% increase in 2024. Declines in China and India were offset by gains in the United States, Eurasia and other Asian markets. Natural gas-fired output grew by around 0.5% y-o-y, a moderation from the 2.2% in 2024, amid gas-to-coal switching in various regions due to higher gas-prices compared to 2024. Nuclear generation was up 1.2% y-o-y, supported by restarts in Japan, higher output in France, and newly commissioned reactors in China and other countries. By contrast, oil-fired generation declined by around 2%, largely due to oil-to-gas switching in the Middle East.

In the 2026-2030 forecast, coal-fired output contracts by 0.9% on average annually. Despite the declining trend, coal will remain the largest single source of electricity through 2030. The plateauing trend of coal-fired generation in China, where more than half of world’s coal-fired output takes place, is a major catalyst in this trend. By contrast, global gas-fired output is set to grow at an accelerated rate of 2.6% in 2026-2030. This is supported by strong growth in gas-fired generation in the United States amid robust electricity demand and in the Middle East with rapidly expanding oil-to-gas switching, especially in Saudi Arabia.

Renewables are forecast to maintain robust growth out to 2030, at an average 8.4%. The share of variable renewable energy (VRE) is set to sharply increase over the forecast, with solar PV and wind combined rising from 17% of total generation in 2025 to 27% by 2030. Solar PV sees the strongest growth among all generation sources, adding on average more than 600 TWh annually, and almost doubling its share to 15%, up from around 8% in 2025. Wind generation is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of around 10%.

Nuclear generation is set to increase by an average of 2.8% over our forecast period, more than double the 1.3% growth rate in 2021‑2025. The gains are led by new reactors being commissioned in China, India, Korea and other countries, restarts in Japan, and robust output in France from the planned advancement of the maintenance works. Nuclear electricity output is expected to remain relatively stable in both the United States and the European Union over the forecast period, while it increases strongly in China, where almost 30 GW of new nuclear capacity is expected to come online over the five-year 2026-2030 outlook.

Nuclear generation in China is expected to increase by nearly 6% per year on average through 2030, while output in the United States and the European Union remains broadly stable. Consequently, China’s share of global nuclear generation is projected to rise from 17% in 2025 to 20% in 2030, whereas the United States’ share declines from 29% to 25% and the European Union’s share falls from 23% to 20%. Despite these falling shares, increasing nuclear generation is a major focus in the United States, with new small modular reactor (SMRs) capacity slated to come online just outside our 2026-2030 forecast period. There is also strong interest in many countries of the European Union, with policies in place for lifetime extensions and expansion of nuclear capacities.

Globally, SMRs are receiving particularly high levels of attention, both from the public sector and also from private industry, such as from large technology companies, as the modular designs and smaller scale of SMRs make them more attractive for financing and deployment by the private sector. Nevertheless, as highlighted in the IEA’s report The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, the success of the technology depends on a combination of government commitment and supportive policies, timely regulatory design reviews, continued innovation from technology developers, and financing from both public and private sectors.

In many parts of the world, electricity generation from ever-cheaper solar PV is showing the largest growth among supply sources. Over our forecast period, the share of solar PV in the total electricity generation mix will surpass 10% in many major economies, and even reach 20% in some of these countries. In terms of absolute and relative growth in solar PV, China leads the way among major economies. The solar PV share surpassed the 10% threshold in China in 2025 and is set to exceed the 20% mark in 2030. After a year-on-year increase of 360 TWh in 2025, solar PV generation is forecast to rise by 320‑360 TWh every year out to 2030, meeting around 60% of the average annual demand growth.

We expect all of China’s additional electricity demand in 2026-2030 to be met by low-emissions sources, renewables and nuclear energy. The total increase in solar PV generation in China over the next five years will be larger than the combined increase in solar PV generation in the rest of the world. Similarly, with an annual average growth rate of 13%, the increase in wind generation in the same period is forecast to be higher than all the growth in wind generation globally. The VRE share in electricity generation is expected to reach 37% by 2030, up from 22% in 2025 and the share of total renewables is forecast to approach the 50% mark, rising from 37%.

In addition to renewables, nuclear generation is also set to expand strongly, at an annual average rate of 5.9%. As a result, despite forecast 4.9% growth for electricity demand, coal-fired generation in China is expected to stay at a plateau as low-emissions sources constrain coal-fired generation. By contrast, gas-fired generation is set to rise on average by around 5% annually through 2030, supported by expectations of lower LNG prices due to expanding global supply.

In India, around 50% of the additional demand growth through 2030 is forecast to be met by solar PV and 25% by coal, with the remainder supplied by wind, nuclear, hydropower and gas. Solar PV generation is expected to rise by an average annual 24%, with its share in total generation set to reach the 10% mark in 2026 and approach 18% in 2030. Wind generation is also forecast to increase at a strong pace, growing by 8.2% on average annually. As a result, the VRE share in total electricity generation is expected to reach 24% in 2030, rising from 14% in 2025. The total renewables share is set to surpass the one-third mark in 2030, up from 24%. At the same time, nuclear generation is forecast to post strong gains, rising by an average rate of 15% over the forecast period, as new reactors become operational.

Despite a slowdown in growth in 2025 amid weather impacts, electricity demand in India is expected to increase at a strong annual average 6.4% through 2030. As a result, higher coal burn in the power sector is set to continue, rising on average by around 2.5% over the next five years. Coal will maintain its role as the main source of electricity supply, though its share in generation is expected to fall from around 70% in 2025 to 60% by 2030. Gas-fired generation is forecast to rise annually by 9.7% on average, supported by a more favourable LNG price environment.

In the United States, we expect substantial growth in gas-fired output, followed by solar PV expansion and slight increases in wind generation, to meet rising demand over the 2026-2030 period, while coal-fired generation decreases. The United States is the only major economy where despite substantial growth in solar PV, its share in total generation rises at a more modest pace, as other sources such as natural gas are expected to increase at significant rates. Having exceeded 7% in 2025, solar PV’s share in US electricity generation is expected to reach 10% in 2028, increasing to 11% in 2030. By contrast, the share of wind is expected to stay at around 10% in 2030, similar to its share in 2025. The VRE share in the electricity generation mix is forecast to rise from 18% in 2025 to 23% in 2030, with the total renewables share increasing to 29%. During the same period, nuclear generation is expected to remain stable, at slightly higher levels than in 2025.

Strong growth in electricity demand through 2030 contributes to sustained growth in natural-gas fired generation, which is forecast to rise at an annual average rate of 3%. Coal-fired generation looks set to decline by an average 6.3% per year. Nevertheless, the decline rate is highly dependent on the progression of coal power plant retirements. The government has demonstrated a willingness to delay the retirement of coal-fired power plants, and has taken steps to do so, in response to strong growth in electricity consumption, including demand from data centres.

In the European Union, we expect renewables to meet all the demand growth over our forecast period, displacing fossil-fired generation. Solar PV generation already eclipsed the 10% mark in 2024 and will reach 20% by 2030. In 2026-2030, more than 400 GW of net renewable energy capacity is projected to be added, with 70% coming from solar PV alone. Wind power generation is also forecast to post strong gains, up by 10% on average annually. Wind is set to be the largest source of electricity generation in the European Union over the forecast horizon, overtaking nuclear energy, and its share will rise from 17% to 25% by 2030. Similarly, the share of VRE is expected to reach 46% in 2030, up from 30% in 2025. By 2026, EU renewable generation will be higher than the combined non-renewable generation. Correspondingly, the share of renewables in total electricity generation is set to reach 63% in 2030, up from 48% in 2025. Combined with nuclear energy, the share of low-emissions sources is forecast to reach 84% by 2030.

As renewables continue their strong growth and nuclear power generation remains stable, fossil-fired generation will continue to be displaced. Coal-fired generation will decline through 2030, falling on average by 16% annually, while at the same time coal phase out plans in various EU countries continue to take place through 2030. Natural gas-fired supply is also forecast to post declines, at an average rate of close to 6%. Nevertheless, gas-fired generation will continue to play an important role in providing seasonal flexibility as well as ancillary services for system stability.

The common trend of strong solar PV growth is also seen in many other regions over our forecast period, alongside different energy sources. The Middle East is forecast to add about 115 TWh of solar PV, while at the same time gas-fired output rapidly rises to displace oil-fired generation. Central and South America is similarly expected to post about 110 TWh of solar PV generation growth out to 2030, alongside significant increases in wind generation. Southeast Asia is set to see more than 35% of additional demand met by coal and close to 35% by gas, while 15% (65 TWh) is expected to be met by solar PV. In Africa, close to 28% (55 TWh) of the additional supply is expected to come from solar PV, alongside significant growth in gas-fired generation, followed by expanding hydropower, wind and nuclear output.

The strong growth of weather-dependent variable renewable energies and their rising share in many power systems during our forecast period further underscores the importance of system flexibility. Accompanying these technologies with flexible supply, storage and demand response, as well as interconnections where possible, will be crucial for their cost-effective system integration. These aspects are discussed more in detail in the following dedicated Grids and Flexibility chapters of our report.