In this part of the report, we focus on the outlook for electric mobility in road transport over the period to 2030. A scenario-based approach is used to explore the prospects for electric mobility, based on recent market trends, policy drivers and technology developments.

The purpose of scenario projections is to assess a plausible future for global electric vehicle (EV) markets and the potential implications. The scenario projections are not intended as predictions about the future. Rather, they aim to provide insights to inform decision-making by governments, companies and other stakeholders about the future of EVs.

In particular, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) reflects the current policy landscape, taking into account existing policies and measures, as well as those that are under development. It includes current EV-related policies and announcements, regulations and investments, as well as market trends based on the expected impacts of technology developments, announced deployments and plans from industry stakeholders. The STEPS aims to hold up a mirror to the plans of policy makers and illustrate their consequences.

The projections for EV markets in this year’s Global EV Outlook (GEVO-25) are limited to 2030 in the STEPS. As the IEA highlighted in its 2024 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives, energy, industrial and trade policies are increasingly interwoven and there are challenges and trade-offs between these key areas of public policy. The way these interactions play out for electric mobility over the longer term will therefore be assessed holistically in the context of the scenarios of the entire global energy system that the IEA will develop later in the year using its Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC-M). Key uncertainties for EV markets for the medium-term – such as those related to the evolution of trade and industrial policy, downside risks to the economic outlook and the impact of different levels of oil prices – are, however, presented in this chapter of the report.

The projections in the STEPS in GEVO-2025 consider historical market data and stated policies up until the end of February 2025. These scenario projections incorporate GDP assumptions from the International Monetary Fund and population assumptions from the United Nations, as described in the 2024 GEC‑M documentation.

EV deployment is projected by road transport mode and by region. For further details on EV projections and impacts, refer to the IEA’s online Global EV Data Explorer, which is updated with each edition of the Global EV Outlook.

By 2030, the fleet of EVs across all modes except 2/3Ws reaches 250 million in the STEPS – four times as many EVs as there were at the end of 2024. More than 90% are electric cars, which is similar to the share in 2024. In this scenario, the stock of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) increases at an average rate of about 25% per year, which is about half the annual growth observed from 2018-2024.

In 2024, the stock of electric 2/3Ws was higher than that of all other EVs combined. By 2030, however, the stock of electric cars overtakes that of electric 2/3Ws, despite the latter more than doubling to reach around 170 million in 2030 in the STEPS. As a result, EVs represent about 15% of all vehicles on the road (including 2/3Ws) in 2030 in this scenario. The share of global EV stock in China decreases from over 70% in 2024 to around 55% in 2030 in the STEPS as adoption in other markets grows. 

In 2024, the EV sales share was higher for light-duty vehicles (cars and vans) than 2/3Ws, in a change to the trend prior to 2023. In 2030, the EV sales share for both light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and 2/3Ws reaches around 40% in the STEPS. In terms of stock shares, 2/3Ws remain the most electrified vehicle segment in 2030 in the STEPS, with around one in six 2/3Ws being electric compared to one in seven LDVs.

Despite electric buses and electric LDVs having about the same stock share in 2024, the sales share of electric buses grows more slowly, reaching less than 20% globally in 2030 in the STEPS. As a result, slightly more than 10% of the global bus stock is electric in 2030 in the STEPS.

Trucks remain the slowest mode to electrify but make some progress thanks to HDV emissions standards and improving economics. In 2030, electric truck sales reach around 13% globally in the STEPS, though only 3% of the truck stock is electric at that point.

The recent surge in trade policies and tariffs may affect the price and resulting sales of EVs – especially electric cars – in several markets over the coming years. In particular, in March 2025 the United States announced an additional 25% tariff applicable to all automobiles, including electric cars, and to certain components. In 2024, 40% of electric cars sold in the United States (over 600 000) were imported, with over 10% of them coming from Europe and slightly less than 10% each coming from Mexico, Japan and Korea. Conventional car sales are more exposed, with over half of all conventional cars sold in the United States in 2024 having been imported. Conventional car imports generally come from the same countries as EVs, although there is a much higher reliance on Mexico and lower reliance on Europe. As a result, the impact of tariffs on the sales share of electric cars in the United States may be relatively small compared to the impact of potential changes in demand-side policies (such as fuel economy standards and tax incentives), some of which are already considered as part of the STEPS outlook.

The impact of tariffs might be more pronounced for EV batteries, their components and raw materials, all of which are highly traded across the world because supply is significantly more concentrated than demand. China produces the cheapest EV batteries, and was responsible for nearly 80% of global EV battery cell production in 2024. China’s share of production was even higher for battery components, for which the country represented almost 85% of global cathode active material and over 90% of the anode active material production. A global shift towards higher tariffs could put upward pressure on battery prices, counteracting some of the significant battery price declines that have occurred since 2015. For example, a 25% tariff would override the 20% average battery price declines from the past year. However, countries across the world are simultaneously developing and improving the competitiveness of their local battery manufacturing industries, which is expected to contribute to narrowing regional cost gaps.

Emerging trade tensions also have implications for the economic outlook, which may create additional uncertainty for the EV outlook. In April 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released revised GDP projections, which show 2.8% growth globally in 2025 and 3% growth in 2026, as compared to 3.3% in both years in their January 2025 projections. The revisions to GDP growth were most pronounced in North America, with projected 2025 growth for the United States falling from 2.7% previously to 1.8% in the April 2025 update. The IMF now projects in its central scenario that in the United States and China, two of the largest EV markets in the world, GDP growth in 2025 will be one percentage point lower than in 2024. By 2027, the IMF expects global GDP growth to return back to levels previously projected, though for advanced economies as a whole, annual GDP growth projections remain lower through 2029 compared to the IMF’s October 2024 publication.

Lower GDP growth could add pressure on already-strained government budgets, which, in turn, could lead to governments downscaling or terminating incentive schemes for EVs ahead of schedule. While direct subsidies are already quite small in most major markets, indirect subsidies, such as those related to company cars, could be affected. Similarly, budgets allocated to the deployment of charging infrastructure at different administrative levels (from national to local levels of government) could be reduced. While all these factors could slow down the uptake of EVs, policy responses can also be developed in a way that supports EV sales, as was done in European countries in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lower economic growth and the corresponding effects on the purchasing power of consumers could slow down sales of new vehicles across all powertrain types, thereby potentially counterbalancing the impact on EV sales shares. Evidence shows that an economic slowdown can affect car sales. For example, pronounced and abrupt economic crises have led to double digit declines in car sales in the past, for example in the United States between 2007 and 2009 (GDP -2.5%, car sales -37%), and in Italy between 2011 and 2013 (GDP -5%, car sales -25%). More modest and gradual economic slowdowns can also have an effect, such as the slowdown in China between 2017 and 2019 (+6.2 % compared to a ten-year average of over +8%) that led to the first decline in car sales recorded in decades, of -12% over 2 years.

The extent to which car markets – and, as part of that, electric car sales – might be affected by a sluggish economic outlook is still uncertain. The Chinese market will be key to watch: it is the largest single car market in the world, and it drives the outlook for global electric car sales in the medium term, accounting for more than half of global electric car sales through 2030 in the STEPS. In China, electric cars are already price competitive with conventional cars and so there is little reason to believe that electric car sales would be more affected by an economic slowdown than conventional cars. Further, China’s extension of its vehicle trade-in policy may also contribute to keeping overall car sales strong. Even if car sales volumes in China are lower than is projected in the STEPS, electric car sales shares are likely to remain relatively robust.

Finally, changes in energy prices can also affect the adoption of EVs. Weak demand prospects have led to a drop in global oil prices from an average of around USD 80 per barrel in 2024 to below USD 60 per barrel at one point in April 2025. Lower oil prices, if sustained, could translate into lower retail prices for gasoline and diesel, thus reducing the economic incentive to purchase EVs, all else being equal. The impact of such a drop is likely to vary across regions: it will be more moderate in regions with high fuel taxation (such as the European Union), and more pronounced in regions with lower fuel taxation, such as the United States and China. Nonetheless, oil prices would need to be extremely low to completely offset the savings offered by the lower running costs of EVs.

Taking oil prices around USD 40 per barrel as an illustrative example, there are significant savings to be made in all major markets from running a battery electric car if it is charged at home. In China, even at such a low oil price, battery electric cars remain cheaper to run when charged at public fast chargers due to a combination of low electricity prices and high charging infrastructure utilisation rates. In the United States, the vast majority of electric car owners have access to home charging, but public fast charging can be expensive compared to gasoline. In the European Union, most EV owners also have access to home chargers, though to a lesser extent. Low oil prices could therefore undermine the economic case for EVs for drivers without access to home charging depending on the speed and thus cost of public charging.  

In the second half of 2024, China achieved the milestone of an electric car sales share of more than 50%, partly thanks to the cost competitiveness of EVs. For the past few years, over half of the electric cars sold in China have been cheaper than ICE cars of the same size, and as battery prices continue to fall, this trend is likely to continue.

Based on stated policies, the share of electric cars and vans in China is expected to reach around 80% of total sales in 2030, backed by continuing policy support and progress on affordability. China has already exceeded the official government target of reaching a sales share of 45% of new energy vehicles (NEV) among new cars by 2027, underscoring the strong market dynamics behind the shift to electromobility. Trade-in grants that were due to expire at the end of 2024 have been extended to 2025, and the NEV exemption from vehicle purchase tax has also been extended until the end of 2027, further supporting uptake of EVs in the short term. In addition, government plans to enhance charging infrastructure over the period to 2030 aim to keep pace with EV uptake by promoting the construction of charging stations in residential areas, as well as in parking spaces in enterprises, industrial parks and government buildings.

Policy action to restrict ICE 2/3Ws in several cities over the past decade has driven high adoption rates of electric 2/3Ws, with more than 30% of 2/3Ws now electric. In the STEPS, the share of electric 2/3Ws on the road reaches nearly 50% by 2030, driven by the continued momentum of electromobility in China and a further decline in battery costs.

This growing trend also extends to buses, especially in cities, where nearly all new buses are now electric. However, the electric market share of coaches for intercity transport was below 10% in 2024. By 2030 in the STEPS, the sales share of electric buses reaches almost 75% across all bus segments, up from less than two-thirds today.

China currently accounts for more than 80% of electric medium- and heavy-duty truck sales worldwide, and the sales share in the country increased to more than 4% in 2024, from 2% in 2023. In some months, the sales share of battery-electric heavy trucks reached a new high of almost 15%, as seen in late June. Truck manufacturers are making efforts to reduce costs, such as by adopting the less costly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry. In addition, policy support for HDV charging infrastructure and the increasing availability of battery-swap-capable vehicles could further accelerate electrification in this segment. Although the upfront cost is higher today compared to diesel powertrains, the annual savings from significantly lower fuel costs mean that electric medium- and heavy-freight trucks become a cost-competitive option in many applications in the short-term (see Truck total cost of ownership in Section 4). By 2030, the sales share of electric trucks exceeds 30% in the STEPS.

Given China's strong position in the shift towards electromobility, the sales share of EVs across all vehicle types (excluding 2/3Ws) reaches close to 80% by 2030 in the STEPS, well on track with what is needed for its target of reaching climate neutrality in 2060 and supporting efforts to reduce air pollution.

Electric car sales stagnated in Europe in 2024, due to a mix of factors including reduced availability of purchase subsidies and a lack of affordable mass-market EV models in OEMs line-ups, as well as sluggish car markets in general. Nonetheless, the policy environment in Europe is one of the strongest in terms of support for EVs, which could encourage strong growth in electric LDV sales over the remainder of this decade. OEMs are beginning to introduce more competitively priced models to comply with the new phase of EU CO₂ standards, which entered into force in 2025.

The 2025-2029 EU fleet-wide CO₂ targets that were originally proposed represent a 15% emissions reduction compared to a 2021 baseline. The stringency of the standard is further bolstered by two changes in the way CO₂ emissions are calculated starting from 2025. First, the utility factor (the share of distance driven in electric mode only) of new PHEV models, which is used to calculate their official CO₂ emission values, decreases, meaning PHEV sales are now less effective in helping OEMs reach target compliance. Second, the revised calculation of CO₂ emission targets will be more favourable to smaller, lighter OEM fleets, potentially increasing the challenge for manufacturers of heavier models.

As a response to concerns that compliance would be difficult for some European manufacturers, the European Commission recently published an Industrial Action Plan for the European automotive sectorIndustrial Action Plan for the European automotive sector, which announced a proposal to offer flexibilities in meeting the 2025 CO₂ standards for cars and vans. This allows OEMs to reach target compliance by averaging their emissions over the period 2025-27, rather than needing to reach the target by the end of 2025. Despite giving more leeway to carmakers to fall in line with their CO₂ targets, the Action Plan has reaffirmed the overall impetus towards the 2030 and 2035 targets. It was also announced that the review of the 2035 targets would be sped up, with full technology neutrality as a core principle, though the outcome and thus impact on EV shares remains to be seen.

The European Union is also exploring measures to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission vehicles in corporate fleets, which currently account for around 60% of new car sales. Policies to support EV uptake in EU member states include national-level measures such as tax credits for EV company cars in countries including Belgium, or France’s "social leasing” schemes for low-income households, which will be rerun in 2025. When considered alongside the zero emission vehicle mandate in the United Kingdom, stated policies drive the sales share of electric cars and vans in Europe to nearly 60% by 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than 20% today.

For buses and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, the EU HDV CO₂ standards serve as the key lever for further electrification. Policy momentum is particularly strong for electric buses in the European Union, and their share in total bus sales reaches around two-thirds by 2030 in the STEPS. For medium- and heavy-freight trucks, policies already in place towards meeting the EU CO₂ standards result in around one-third of new registrations in the European Union being electric by 2030 in the STEPS. The European Commission’s proposal to exempt zero-emission trucks from road tolls could further support this trend. Toll charges for a long-haul diesel truck can amount to EUR 25 000 annually. Across Europe as a whole, the share of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in this scenario is around 25% in 2030, reflecting the varying levels of policy support across different countries.

In Europe, EV sales across all vehicle types (excluding 2/3Ws) are projected to exceed 55% by 2030 in the STEPS, with lighter vehicles such as passenger cars and light commercial vehicles making up the majority of sales.

On 20 January 2025, Executive Order 14154 declared that it was US policy to, among other things, eliminate subsidies and other policy measures influencing markets in favour of EVs. Following this, a bill was introduced to the US Senate that proposes to repeal the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit for both electric cars and commercial vehicles. In addition, the US Secretary of Transportation has directed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to review existing fuel economy standards for LDVs. The fuel economy standards that were finalised in 2024 require the fuel economy of passenger cars to improve around 2% per year for model years 2027-2031.

While emissions from vehicles are typically regulated at the federal level under the Clean Air Act, in December 2024, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted California’s request for a waiver from federal pre-emption (by which federal law supersedes conflicting state law) for their Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC-II) regulation. The ACC-II regulation requires an increasing number of electric and fuel cell electric new car sales, from 35% in 2026 to 100% in 2035 and beyond. In 2024, California represented almost 30% of US electric car sales, but only around 10% of total US car sales. In addition to California, 11 other states and Washington DC have adopted the ACC-II regulation under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act. All together, the states that have adopted the ACC-II regulation represent about 30% of all US LDV sales. However, Executive Order 14154 also directed US policy to terminate, “where appropriate, state emissions waivers that function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles.” Based on stated policy intentions, electric LDV sales in the United States increase from about 10% today to about 20% in 2030 in the STEPS. To put this in context, in the STEPS of GEVO-24, US electric car sales reached more than 50% in 2030, on the back of policies in support of EVs.

The availability and stringency of fuel economy and emissions standards also has significant implications for HDV electrification prospects in the United States. In April 2023, the US EPA granted a waiver of pre-emption for California’s Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation, which requires that manufacturers produce and sell increasing quantities of medium- and heavy-duty near-zero and zero-emission vehicles. Ten states have since adopted the ACT regulation. On the other hand, California withdrew its request for a waiver of pre-emption for the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation, which would have required certain fleet owners to purchase increasing shares of near-zero and zero-emission trucks. Some elements of the ACF Regulation would not have been affected by the waiver and so state and local government fleets will still be required to comply with the regulation. At the federal level, in March 2024, the US EPA released final emissions standards for HDVs, which require CO₂ emissions reductions (per ton-mile) of about 25-60% for model year 2032 trucks compared to model year 2027, depending on truck type.

Given uncertainty in the longevity of the existing emissions standards and state waivers, the sales share of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the United States reaches around 8% in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than half a percent in 2024. This compares to 20% electric truck sales projected in 2030 in the STEPS of GEVO-24.

Electric bus deployment has historically been supported at the federal level through funding opportunities such as the Clean School Bus Program, but city and state policy also play a role in driving uptake, meaning that electric buses may be relatively insulated from changes to federal policies. For example, the Illinois State Legislature passed law that transit agencies in the state can purchase only zero-emission buses from 2026. The California state government also offers incentives for the purchase of buses and dedicated charging infrastructure, such as the USD 500 million allocated to school buses during the 2023-2024 fiscal year. In the STEPS, EVs represent close to 15% of bus sales in 2030, up from about 3% in 2024.

Across all vehicle types, excluding 2/3Ws, EVs represent one in five vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 in the STEPS, meaning one in thirteen vehicles on the road in 2030 is electric. This is about half the sales share across the rest of the world, where around 40% of vehicle sales (excluding 2/3Ws) are electric in 2030 in the STEPS.

The policy framework in Japan has remained fairly stable over the past year. In 2019, the country published LDV fuel economy targets for 2030, aiming to achieve an improvement of 32% in fuel economy by 2030 compared to 2016. This 11-year lead time has given automakers time to incorporate the fuel economy standards in their company strategies, and the seven largest Japanese automakers now all have electrification targets in place.

In addition, purchase subsidies are available for electric and fuel cell cars to help achieve the country’s net zero and Green Transformation target of 100% electrified (including fuel cell and hybrid) car sales by 2035. In the STEPS, Japan’s electric LDV sales increase from 3% of total LDV sales in 2024 to 20% by 2030. This is in line with the low end of the range described in Japan’s Next-Generation Vehicle Strategy, which aims for a 20-30% sales share of electric LDVs by 2030, with another 30-40% sales being hybrids, and 3% being fuel cell LDVs.

Fuel economy standards for HDVs, including buses and trucks, require a reduction in fuel consumption of more than 13% in 2025 compared to the 2015 baseline. Japan also has purchase subsidies in place for buses and trucks to support EV and FCEV uptake. Electric bus sales reach about 12% in 2030 in the STEPS, up from 2% in 2024. Electric medium and heavy freight truck sales are slow but rise from less than 0.5% today to around 10% by the end of the decade.

Japan is steadily moving towards the electrification of 2/3Ws, with electric 2/3Ws already accounting for 7% of sales in 2024. This is further supported by city-level policies, such as Tokyo’s subsidies for eligible 2/3Ws, which have been introduced with the aim of all new sales being electric by 2035. The share of electric 2/3Ws continues to rise in the STEPS, reaching more than 45% by 2030.

Japan’s EV sales share across all modes (excluding 2/3Ws) was at 3% in 2024 and increases to nearly 20% by 2030 in the STEPS, and just slightly over 20% when including 2/3Ws. As a result, about 1 in 20 vehicles in Japan is electric in 2030 based on stated policies. 

Following years of support under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme, which was introduced in 2015, implementation of the new PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) scheme began on 1 October 2024. The new scheme focuses on electric 2/3Ws, buses, trucks and charging infrastructure, while specifically excluding electric cars, and has a budget envelope of USD 1.3 billion to 31 March 2026.

The 2/3W segment is already the most electrified segment in India, with close to 10% of sales in 2024 being electric. This high electrification rate has been driven by the significant savings on total cost of ownership (TCO) offered by existing electric 2/3W models in India. As early as 2023, we estimated that, with subsidies in place, the TCO of an average electric 2W would be 40% less than its ICE equivalent after 5 years of ownership. The combination of policy support and advantageous economics mean that momentum in electric 2/3W sales is set to continue, and electric models are expected to account for more than one-third of 2/3W sales by 2030 in the STEPS.

Although there are no purchase subsidies for electric cars in India, other mechanisms may support adoption. These include the national vehicle scrapping policy (V-VMP), along with a number of federal and state-level policies, such as a reduction in the rate of the federal Good and Services Tax and in the Regional Transport Office state-level tax, as well as other registration and road tax waivers. In addition, the government’s Production Linked Incentive scheme for Automobile and Auto Components and for manufacturing of Advanced Chemistry Cell Battery Storage aims to attract investments in domestic EV and battery manufacturing. In March 2024, the government approved the Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of Electric Passenger Cars in India to attract investment from global EV manufacturers. This allows EV manufacturers committing to invest in India to import electric cars with import duties reduced from 70% (or 100% if the purchase price exceeds USD 50 000) to 15%. These policies in support of domestic manufacturing are well-poised to help drive EV uptake.

The Indian Government is currently drafting new CO₂ emissions standards for cars, CAFE III (2027-2032) and CAFE IV (2033-2037), which have proposed WLTP CO₂ emission targets of 91.7 g CO₂/km and 70 g CO₂/km, respectively. This standard will be implemented with a super-credit mechanism, making it easier for OEMs to reach compliance through electric car sales rather than through sales of conventional cars and non-plug-in hybrids. Based on existing policy support (excluding the latest CAFE III and IV proposals which are still at the consultation stage), sales of electric cars increase from 2% in 2024 to almost 15% in 2030 in the STEPS.

In October 2024, the government of India also adopted the PM e-Bus Sewa-PSM Scheme to support the roll-out of 38 000 electric buses across the country, with a budget of INR 34.4 billion (USD 394 million). When considered alongside the support from the PM E-DRIVE scheme, electric bus sales reach 25% in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than 6% in 2024. Electrification of other heavy vehicles, namely freight trucks, is expected to proceed less quickly, due to greater price barriers. Electric truck sales reach around 2% in 2030 in the STEPS, which is similar to India’s 2024 EV sales share for cars.

Across all vehicle modes, excluding 2/3Ws, EVs represent 1 in 8 vehicles sold in India in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than 1 in 50 in 2024. When 2/3Ws are included, stated policies imply that the electrification rate increases to one in three vehicles sold by 2030.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s second-largest car market, has introduced a range of policies to meet its ambitious EV targets. One of the key incentives was the introduction in April 2023 of a VAT discount on EV sales, which is continuing in 2025. In addition, EV manufacturing and trade policies currently provide import duty exemptions for EVs made by manufacturers committing to establish domestic manufacturing facilities by 2026. Under stated policies, the electric car sales share reaches 25% by 2030, up from 9% in 2024. This translates into a stock of almost 1 million electric cars in 2030 in the STEPS, which is still less than half of the government’s target of 2 million. The country has also set the target of 13 million electric motorcycles by 2030. Based on recent market trends, the EV share of 2/3W sales in Indonesia increases from less than 2% in 2024 to 30% in 2030. Despite this strong growth, the total stock of electric 2/3Ws is less than the government target for electric motorcycles.

Several other Southeast Asian countries have recently adopted manufacturing and trade policies to facilitate EV imports while also developing domestic EV manufacturing. In most of these countries, such policy developments are accompanied by measures to support EV uptake. In Malaysia, for example, the largest car market in the region in 2024, electric cars are exempt from import duties, registration and road taxes until the end of 2025, and until 2027 if locally built. Thailand, Southeast Asia’s third-largest car market in 2024, implemented a set of measures called the EV 3.5 Policy to support the roll-out of electric passenger cars, pick-up trucks and motorcycles. This new scheme, adopted in 2024, is designed as the continuation of the previous EV 3.0 Policy, while at the same time giving BEV manufacturers more time to meet their production commitments under the 3.0 version to help avoid oversupply. The Thai government will establish new purchase subsidies and road tax exemptions until 2027 under the new framework, including some incentives also for hybrid vehicles, along with waivers on import duties for OEMs committing to produce EVs domestically. The Philippines, Viet Nam and Singapore have also adopted policies to reduce import duties, exempt EVs from excise taxes, or set up EV mandates to further support the adoption of EVs in the region.

The outlook for EV sales in Southeast Asia is bright, thanks to its emerging role as a manufacturing hub, and the existing set of manufacturing, trade and demand-side policies supporting the electrification of road transport. Under stated policies, electric car sales in Southeast Asia are likely to reach 25% of total car sales by 2030. Other vehicle modes are also expected to make significant strides in electrification, with electric 2/3Ws surpassing a 30% sales share and electric buses nearing 15%. Overall, across all vehicle segments, the EV sales share in Southeast Asia approaches 30% in 2030 in the STEPS. 

Countries in Latin America have been increasing their policy support for EVs, especially since 2020. In particular, Brazil, Colombia and Chile stand out for passing legislation to promote EVs. This is important for the EV outlook in the region as together, these three countries represent almost half of Latin America’s car and bus sales.

In 2024, Brazil approved the MOVER programme, which incentivises private sector investment in the R&D and manufacturing of sustainable vehicle technologies including EVs. Colombia also has relevant legislation, particularly to encourage the electrification of public buses, including a law that requires cities with mass transportation systems to ensure that electric or zero-emission vehicle sales increase from 10% in 2025 to 100% in 2035. In 2024, the government also created the Fund for the Promotion of Technological Advancement, which among other things will support electric LDV sales by covering the price differential with ICEVs. In 2024, new LDV fuel economy standards came into effect in Chile. These promote zero-emission vehicles by offering credit multipliers. Other countries in Latin America also offer policy support for EVs, mainly in the form of tax incentives.

Electric car sales in Latin America increased from 0.3% in 2020 to around 4% in 2024, and reach around 13% in 2030 in the STEPS. Latin America has also seen success in deploying electric buses, which is expected to continue: in 2030 in the STEPS, electric bus sales reach almost 14%, up from 2% in 2024.

A number of automakers have scaled back their near-term targets for EVs over the past year, citing lower-than-expected consumer demand, and in the context of difficulties in achieving profitability with BEVs for many non-Chinese OEMs. Many, if not all, had previously set those targets with a degree of flexibility dependent on market conditions. The shifting policy landscape in some markets further increases uncertainty in automaker electrification targets out to 2030, though the outlook for electric car sales remains robust.

General Motors (GM) – the best-selling carmaker in the United States – missed its goal of producing and wholesaling 200 000 EVs in North America in 2024 by about 5%. The company expects to produce up to 300 000 EVs in 2025, and is no longer reiterating its previous target of reaching an annual production capacity of 1 million EVs by the end of 2025. Similarly, Tesla – the best-selling electric carmaker in the United States – dropped the goal of selling 20 million cars per year by 2030 from its 2023 annual impact report, despite this target having been included in consecutive previous reports. The uncertainty around whether Tesla will still aim to sell 20 million electric cars worldwide in 2030 has a significant impact on the range of OEM electrification targets in all of the major markets.

In 2021, Ford, GM and Stellantis released a joint statement announcing their aspiration to achieve sales of 40-50% electric or fuel cell electric cars in the United States by 2030, in line with the Biden administration’s target. Given the change of administration in the United States, the future commitment to these targets is unclear. As such, the range of OEM declarations for electric car sales in the United States in 2030 now stretches from 70% electric car sales in 2030 to less than 30%; a year ago the lower end of the range of OEM declarations in the United States was around 50%. In spite of this, even if only the lower end of the OEM target range were to be achieved, the electric car sales share in the United States would almost triple by 2030.

With regards to the European market, Ford has abandoned its goal to shift entirely to electric sales in Europe by 2030, though in 2024 Ford was responsible for less than 5% of car sales in the region. Volvo Cars, also representing less than 5% of car sales in Europe, has also scaled down its 2030 all-electric target, allowing for up to 10% of its sales to be hybrids. Similarly, Renault had previously aimed for 100% of its car sales to be electric in Europe by 2030, but in 2024 its CEO announced that a two-pronged approach of selling both ICE and electric cars will continue for the next decade. Nevertheless, the range of OEM electrification targets for Europe remains the highest of the major EV markets, reaching from over 60% to around 85% of car sales in 2030.

In contrast, as Chinese EV sales remained strong over 2024, BYD surpassed its 2024 sales target, which had already been increased from 3.6 million new energy vehicles (i.e. EVs and FCEVs) to 4 million. In total, BYD represented about 15% of car sales in China; all-electric car brands (including Tesla, Li Auto, NIO and others) together represented one-quarter of car sales in China in 2024. As a result of the growing success of all-electric car brands, the EV sales shares in China in 2030 based on OEM targets has increased, despite there being no new targets for 2030. The range of OEM declarations for 2030 would imply a 55-80% electric car sales share.

While Honda has not scaled back its long-term zero-emission vehicle targets (100% of sales by 2040), it has announced the aim to double hybrid car sales by 2030. Indian OEM Tata has reduced its 2030 BEV sales target from 50% to 30%. At the global level, the range of uncertainty in electric car sales in 2030 projected in automakers’ declarations has grown over the past year, meaning that the increase in global sales as envisaged by their targets now ranges from 35-60%. However, achieving even the lower end of this range would mean that the number of electric car sales in 2030 would be approximately double that of 2024.