Global power demand is expected to rise much faster over the forecast 2025‑2026 period than it did during the past decade. While slower than the 4.4% surge in 2024, growth forecasts of 3.3% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026 remain among the highest rates observed in the past decade and well above the 2015-2023 average of 2.6%. Despite a slowdown in economic activity, which has weighed on global electricity use so far in 2025, heatwaves continue to add to demand in many regions, as they did in 2024. Rising demand from industry, appliances, growing air conditioning use, the expansion of data centres, and ongoing electrification will remain major drivers of strong global electricity demand growth through 2026. As a result, electricity demand is expected to rise more than twice as fast as total energy demand in 2025 and to continue this trend in 2026.

Electricity demand in China and India is expected to rise at a more moderate pace in 2025 than the rapid growth seen in 2024. After a 7% surge in 2024, electricity consumption in China is projected to increase by 5% in 2025, reflecting slower demand growth in the industrial sector. Nonetheless, China alone will account for 50% of global electricity demand growth, as it did in 2024. Similarly, after 6% growth in 2024, electricity demand in India is forecast to rise by 4% this year. However, stronger growth is forecast for both China (+5.7%) and India (+6.6%) in 2026, as activity in the industry and services sectors picks up. Together, these two economies will account for 60% of global demand growth through 2026.

The United States is seeing above-trend electricity demand growth in 2025, similar to 2024, whereas the European Union is still recovering at a modest pace following earlier steep declines. After rising by 2.1% in 2024, US electricity demand is boosted further by the rapid expansion of data centres in both 2025 and 2026, reaching 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively, more than double the average growth rate over the past decade. In the European Union, electricity consumption is forecast to increase by 1.1% in 2025, before accelerating to 1.5% in 2026, similar to the growth of 1.6% in 2024. While the demand contraction in the EU industrial sector came to a halt in 2024 following consecutive declines in 2022 and 2023, a significant recovery has still not been observed as of the first half of 2025. 

In the first half of 2025, while coal-fired generation declined year-on-year in China and India, it increased in the United States and the European Union. The declines in China and India were due to more moderate demand growth compared with the same period in 2024 and strong expansion in output from renewables. By contrast, in the United States, both renewable generation and coal-fired output rose strongly, with the latter boosted by gas-to-coal switching due to higher natural gas prices compared with 2024. In the European Union, even though solar PV output broke new records, lower wind and hydropower generation resulted in increased gas- and coal-fired generation year‑on‑year. For full-year 2025, EU coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline compared with the previous year, while India is expected to see an increase, contrary to the trend observed in these regions in the first half of the year. Low-emissions sources are expected to record strong growth over our forecast period in many regions, raising their share in the global electricity generation mix.

Wind and solar PV are expected to cover over 90% of the increase in global electricity demand in 2025. After exceeding the 4 000 TWh mark in 2024, wind and solar PV generation combined is set to surpass 5 000 TWh in 2025 and 6 000 TWh in 2026.

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources is forecast to overtake coal-fired generation in our outlook. Depending on weather trends and economic developments, coal-fired output is expected to be surpassed by renewable generation as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest. Following this milestone, coal’s share in total generation will drop below 33% for the first time in a century. Solar PV and wind energy are central to this shift, with their combined share of global electricity generation forecast to grow from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025, reaching almost 20% by 2026 – a near-fivefold increase from just 4% a decade ago.

Global coal-fired generation is forecast to move into slightly negative territory in 2025 following growth of 1.3% in 2024. Contractions in China and Europe are only partially offset by increases elsewhere, notably in the United States, India and other Asian countries. Following this modest decline, global coal-fired generation is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2026 amid continued renewables growth and higher coal-to-gas switching in multiple regions.

Global gas-fired generation is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2025, and reach a new high, following growth of 1.9% in 2024. The gains in 2025 are driven by continued oil-to-gas switching in the Middle East and sustained growth in gas-fired generation in Asia. While higher natural gas prices supported increased gas-to-coal switching in the United States in the first half of 2025, lower wind and hydropower output in Europe bolstered gas-fired generation there. For 2026, we forecast growth in global power generation from natural gas of around 1.3%.

Global nuclear power generation is on track to reach a new record high in 2025 and will continue its upward trajectory in 2026. This is driven by plant restarts in Japan, robust output in the United States and France, and the commissioning of new reactors in China, India, Korea and several other countries. Global nuclear generation is expected to rise by an average of 2% over the 2025-2026 period, approaching 3 000 TWh in 2026. 

Global carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau this year, with a slight decline forecast in 2026 as low-emissions sources displace fossil-fired supply. Emissions from electricity generation already showed signs of slowing in 2024 when they rose by 1.2%, following growth of 1.6% in 2023. This was despite even hotter temperatures in 2024 than in 2023, which boosted electricity demand for cooling. The rapid deployment of renewables is limiting increases in power generation from fossil fuels, but abnormal weather conditions – such as intense heat waves, cold spells or below-average rainfall (affecting hydropower output) – can lead to fluctuations in emissions levels from one year to the next. Developments in China, where more than half of the world’s coal-fired power generation takes place, can significantly influence global trends.

Average wholesale electricity prices rose in the first half of 2025 year-on-year in a number of markets. Wholesale electricity prices in the European Union and the United States rose by about 30-40% amid higher gas prices. While average prices remained below the 2023 annual levels, they were still higher than in 2019. By contrast, wholesale prices in countries such as India and Australia declined by around 5-15% in 2025 compared with the previous year. At the same time, many markets continued to observe an increase in the occurrence of negative electricity prices. The share of hours with negative prices on the wholesale market reached 8-9% in the first half of the year in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Spain – up from 4-5% in 2024. The rise in occurrences of negative prices highlights the urgent need for greater flexibility in supply and demand. Appropriate regulatory frameworks and market designs to facilitate solutions like storage and demand response will be essential.

Significant variations in electricity prices for energy-intensive industries continue across regions. Following steady declines in 2023 and 2024 from their 2022 peak, electricity prices for energy-intensive industries in the European Union are forecast to increase in 2025 after a rise in wholesale prices. Average electricity prices for these industries in the European Union remain roughly twice the levels in the United States and 50% above those in China. In contrast, back in 2019, EU prices were only around 50% higher than in the United States and 20% higher than in China. Higher electricity costs are expected to continue to put competitive pressure on EU energy-intensive industries.

Recent blackouts around the world highlight the critical importance of electricity security for modern economies and societies. On 25 February 2025, a transmission system failure in Chile left 99% of the country’s 20 million residents without power for 17 hours. Just weeks later, on 28 April, a complex series of events triggered a blackout in Spain and Portugal that lasted over 10 hours, affecting tens of millions of people and businesses. As power systems expand and become more complex with electrification spreading into different parts of the economy, ensuring a secure and reliable electricity supply has never been more vital. Robust grid infrastructure and secure supply chains, combined with diverse flexibility resources and technical stability solutions, are key pillars of electricity security. As power systems evolve, it will be essential for stakeholders to adapt operational frameworks by updating grid codes, reserve requirements and regulatory structures.