Global emissions from electricity generation rose by 1.2% in 2024, following an increase of 1.6% in 2023. Last year was even hotter than in 2023 – making it the warmest year on record – with the heat waves boosting electricity demand for cooling. Nonetheless, growth in power sector emissions showed signs of slowing down as rapid deployment of renewables constrained increases in fossil-fired generation. As this trend continues, we expect 2025 emissions to plateau and remain relatively unchanged. In 2026, we forecast a slight decline of less than 1%, as the increase in low-emissions generation depresses fossil-fired output. Deviations from normal weather conditions, such as intense heat waves, cold spells or below-average hydropower output, can lead to an increase in emissions in individual years. Moreover, developments in China, where more than half of the world’s coal-fired generation takes place, can significantly influence global trends.

Multiple regions in the world are expected to record falling emissions from electricity generation out to 2026. The largest decrease in terms of absolute emissions is expected in China. This corresponds to a modest average annual decline rate of less than 1% for China in 2025-2026. This is highly sensitive to fluctuations in electricity demand, which can result from deviations from the latest economic projections as well as variations in weather conditions in individual years. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of renewable energy in China, accompanied by rising nuclear generation, will limit fossil-fired power generation and continue to support the trend towards flattening emissions from electricity generation.

The European Union follows China with substantial declines in emissions from power generation over the 2025-2026 period. US power sector emissions are expected to decline only slightly over the same period. By contrast, emissions in India and Southeast Asia will continue to rise as coal-fired generation grows at a significant pace.

As the share of low-emissions sources increases, the carbon intensity of global electricity generation is forecast to decline at an average annual rate of 3.7%, falling from 445 g CO₂/kWh in 2024 to 415 g CO₂/kWh by 2026. The European Union is expected to lead this trend, with the steepest average annual reduction of around 10%, dropping from 175 g CO₂/kWh to 140 g CO₂/kWh over the same period. China is also forecast to see a significant decline of more than 5% per year, from 565 g CO₂/kWh in 2024 to 505 g CO₂/kWh in 2026. India’s emissions intensity is expected to fall by 3.8% annually, while the United States is projected to see a 2.2% average annual reduction over the same period.