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IEA (2025), COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge 2025: Update, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacity-pledge-2025-update, Licence: CC BY 4.0
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New Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) show limited reflection of the pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030 agreed at COP28
Between COP28 and the end of COP30, only about two-thirds of NDCs have been updated (128) and fewer than half of these (53) explicitly reference the global tripling goal. Even fewer (32) contain quantifiable renewable capacity ambitions for 2030.
Assessment of renewable capacity ambitions in NDCs submitted since January 2024
OpenNDCs continue to under-represent current government ambitions for installed renewable capacity by 2030
The NDC 3.0 round does not fully capture countries’ 2030 renewable capacity ambitions in all submitted NDCs. Including 2030 ambitions from previous NDC cycles, total renewable capacity pledges could exceed 1 600 GW, almost ten times what is captured in the current round of submissions (170 GW).
In contrast, analysis of existing policies, plans and estimates for 189 countries corresponds to renewable capacity reaching 8 355 GW in 2030, five times the level reflected in NDCs. China’s renewable ambition is the highest globally, followed by Europe and the Asia Pacific region, all three together accounting for 80% of the global total. Solar PV is the leading technology in 2030 renewables ambitions. However, despite higher ambitions emerging from national policies, a significant ambition gap with the tripling pledge remains.
2030 renewable capacity ambition in NDCs, national plans and policies and the COP28 tripling pledge
OpenOne hundred-plus countries took policy action over the last year, with half increasing their renewable ambitions
Fifty-one countries, have raised their renewable capacity ambitions for 2030, signalling growing national commitments to higher deployment. Conversely, 21 countries reduced their ambitions due to changing policy priorities or electricity demand projections that were lower than expected, while 29 countries maintained the same level of ambition in the new documents released. Concurrently, 49 countries did not release any new policy documents related to renewable power. This update also expands the country coverage from last year including 39 additional countries, reaching 189 in total.
Countries’ overall renewable capacity ambitions from national policies and plans are 6% higher compared to last year’s analysis
Global renewable capacity ambition has increased by 453 GW since the last IEA assessment. China’s upward ambition is the largest globally, rising by around 600 GW. In contrast, ambitions in the Americas are down by around 322 GW. The Middle East and North Africa saw the second-largest increase—and the highest in percentage terms—rising nearly 50% from last year. Europe and the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) show modest growth of about 3% each. Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2030 ambitions fell slightly, though trends vary across countries. Eurasia’s overall ambition grew by more than 20 GW (16%) compared with last year.