In 2025, global emissions from electricity generation remained flat, after increasing 1.5% and 1.4% in in the previous two years, respectively. Even with strong gains in electricity demand, growth in power sector emissions is showing marked signs of slowing down as fossil-fired generation is constrained by the rapid deployment of renewables and rising nuclear power generation. As this trend continues, we forecast global emissions from power generation to plateau over our 2026-2030 outlook period due to significant increases in clean energy sources, despite electricity demand growth of an average 3.6% annually – a sharp acceleration from the 2.8% pace of the past decade. Economic shocks and deviations from normal weather conditions, such as intense heat waves, cold spells or low water availability for hydropower generation, can cause an increase in emissions in individual years. However, the transformative trend of low-emissions energy sources limiting fossil-fired output is expected to remain resilient.

In 2025, reduced emissions from electricity generation in India and China were largely offset by increases in the United States, other Asia Pacific (excluding India and China), Eurasia and the Middle East. India saw a decline of 3.3% y-o-y as coal-fired generation contracted amid moderate demand growth and strong renewables expansion. China saw a slight decrease of around 1%. In the European Union, emissions from electricity generation fell by 2.2%. By contrast, US emissions increased by 4.3% due to higher coal-fired generation.

Between 2026 and 2030, China’s CO₂ emissions from electricity generation are forecast to fall on average by 0.2% per year as low-emissions energy sources constrain coal-fired output, and despite continued robust electricity demand growth. Following the decline in 2025, India is forecast to see emissions rise by an annual average of 2.4%, as demand posts steady growth through 2030, with coal remaining the dominant source of supply in the power sector. The United States is expected to resume its declining trend in emissions, at an average annual rate of 1.4%. In the European Union, emissions are projected to drop substantially, by an average 11% per year over the forecast period.

Global CO2-intensity from electricity generation contracted by an estimated 3% in 2025, after a 2.6% reduction in in 2024. An increasing share of renewables and robust output in nuclear energy generation are driving this trend. We forecast CO2 intensity to fall even faster over our forecast period, at an annual average rate of 3.7%, down from 435 g CO2/kWh in 2025 to 360 g CO2/kWh in 2030.

Many regions are expected to register substantial declines in CO2 intensity in the 2026-2030 outlook. The European Union is forecast to post the sharpest fall in emissions intensity from electricity generation, with an annual reduction of around 13%, dropping from 170 g CO₂/kWh to 90 g CO₂/kWh over the period. Similarly, China is forecast to record an average decline rate of 4.8% per year, though from significantly higher levels of 530 g CO₂/kWh in 2025 to 415 g CO₂/kWh in 2030, with the CO2 intensity approaching the global average. The United States is projected to see a 3.2% average annual reduction. CO2 intensity in India is expected to fall by 3.4% annually, from 695 g CO2/kWh to 585 g CO2/kWh. However, Southeast Asia sees a muted average decline of 0.7% over the forecast period, from 640 g CO2/kWh to 615 g CO2/kWh. Hence, over the forecast period, India’s emission intensity is set to fall below that of Southeast Asia, with the latter becoming the highest emission intensity region.