As highlighted in our annual Electricity 2025 report, low-emissions energy sources are reaching new milestones globally in our forecast period. Renewables are poised to surpass coal-fired generation, depending on weather trends and economic developments, either as early as 2025 or in 2026. As a result, coal’s share in total generation is set to drop below 33% for the first time in the last 100 years.

Solar PV and wind energy are key drivers of this trend, with their combined share in global electricity generation expected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 and to above 19% in 2026 – up from 4% a decade earlier. Wind and solar PV generation together are projected to provide almost an additional 1 000 TWh in 2026, roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Japan.

Global hydropower generation, the largest source of renewable electricity supply globally with a 14% share, is forecast to remain relatively flat in 2025 amid droughts in the first half in various regions, after a significant recovery in 2024 following the strong reductions due to droughts the year before. We project a rebound of more than 2% in 2026, assuming normal hydrological conditions.

Nuclear power generation is set to hit a new record in 2025, and will continue to rise in 2026. This is fuelled by restarts in Japan, commissioning of new reactors in China, India, Korea and other countries, along with robust output in the United States and France. We forecast global nuclear generation to grow on average close to 2% over the period 2025-2026.

Global gas-fired generation is expected to increase by 1.3% in 2025 and reach a new high, following growth of 1.9% in 2024. The gains in 2025 are driven by continued oil-to-gas switch in the Middle East and sustained growth in gas-fired generation in Asia. While higher gas prices supported an increased gas-to-coal switch in the United States in 2025, constrained wind generation in Europe amid low wind speeds boosted gas-fired generation. In 2026, we forecast global gas-fired generation to rise by 1.3%, similar to its rate in 2025.

By contrast, following growth of 1.3% in 2024, global coal-fired generation is forecast to decline very slightly by around 0.5% in 2025. Declines in China and Europe are partly offset by increases in other regions, most notably, in the United States, India and other Asian countries. Following this modest contraction, we expect global coal-fired output to decline by around 1.3% in 2026 due to continued growth of low-emissions generation and higher coal-to-gas switching in various regions.

In China, record-high growth in generation from low-emission sources and a moderate increase in demand led to coal-fired power falling by an estimated 2.6% y-o-y in H1 2025, reversing trends of the previous two years. Drought conditions in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, where most of China’s hydro capacity is located, led hydropower output to drop by 2.9% y-o-y in H1 2025, with a particularly sharp 14% y‑o‑y decline in May. For the first time in the past decade – excluding 2020 – both coal and hydropower generation decreased in the first half of the year.

The record-level capacity additions in 2024 and continuous expansion from January to June this year, led to growth in solar PV generation of around 45%. The additional PV generation in China fully covered the moderate growth in H1 2025 demand. China’s installed capacity of solar PV surpassed 1 TW of alternating current (AC) power capacity in May 2025, with over 92 GW additions only that month, and the aggregate of wind and solar PV capacity now exceeds thermal capacity in the country. The strong growth in solar PV installations in H1 2025 was primarily due to policy deadlines. Wind power generation increased by 11% in H1 2025, while nuclear energy also grew by 11%. The share of low-emission sources in the mix exceeded 40% for the period, significantly above the 35% average during H1 in the last five years.

Hydropower generation in China is forecast to increase by 1% for the full year 2025, supported by heavy rains in June that helped refill reservoirs in the southwest. Solar PV and wind generation are also expected to rise significantly during this period, with projected growth of 45% and 17%, respectively. These developments are expected to reduce reliance on coal, with coal-fired generation forecast to decline again in H2 2025 year-on-year, resulting in an annual decrease of 1.9%. Nuclear generation is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, the upward trend in renewables is set to continue. Solar PV and wind generation are forecast to grow by 27% and 19%, respectively. Coal-fired generation is expected to remain broadly stable, while nuclear generation is projected to grow by 3%. Gas-fired generation in China will remain robust and is forecast to rise by an average 3.6% over the period 2025-2026.

In India, the combined output from solar PV and wind was 20% higher in H1 2025 y-o-y, which reached an almost 14% share in the mix, up from 11% in H1 2024. Solar PV generation grew by 25% and wind by slightly less than 30%. A significant improvement in hydro conditions since mid-2024 resulted in hydropower generation increasing 16% y-o-y between January and June. Additional capacity, including the 700 MW Unit 7 at the Rajasthan nuclear power station that connected with the Northern grid in March, contributed to the 14% rise in nuclear generation for the same period. A twin unit, RAPP-8, is expected to start operations in FY 2025/26 as part of plans to reach a nuclear capacity of 100 GW by 2047 announced under the Nuclear Energy Mission by the Government of India.

Multiple extensions by the Ministry of Power of the directive mandated imported coal-based power plants to operate at full capacity. Amid strong rise in output of low-emissions sources and more moderate demand growth, coal-fired generation decreased by 3% in the first six months of the year – the first decline in the first half of the year since 2020. Gas-fired generation dropped by around 30% in H1 2025, falling back to 2023 levels.

We expect coal-fired generation to rise again in H2 2025, reaching around 0.5% growth for full year, followed by a 1.6% increase in 2026. Gas-fired generation is forecast to decline by 3% in 2025 before rebounding by 7% in 2026. The above-mentioned capacity additions for nuclear power are expected to drive generation from this source higher, up by 15% this year and 19% in 2026. Output from renewable energy sources is set to continue growing in H2 2025, with solar PV rising by 40% y-o-y in 2025 and 28% in 2026, while wind is projected to post more moderate growth of around 10% both in 2025 and 2026. Hydropower output is forecast to continue rising as well in H2 2025, resulting in an increase of 7% y-o‑y this year before reaching a growth of 10% in 2026.

In the first half of 2025, gas-fired generation in the United States declined by more than 4% y-o-y, whereas coal-fired generation rose sharply by more than 15%. This shift was primarily driven by higher natural gas prices compared to 2024. Nuclear output was moderately weaker, recording around 1.5% y-o-y decline. Renewable generation grew by approximately 11% in H1 2025, supported by an around 30% increase in solar PV output and a 5% increase in wind generation. Hydropower output was up slightly by 1.3% y-o-y as hydrological conditions improved.

For full-year 2025, gas-fired generation is forecast to decline by 3.6% before rebounding to 1.6% growth in 2026, with its share in the power mix remaining above 40%. Coal-fired generation is projected to rise by 8% in 2025 and then decline by about 6.5% in 2026. Nuclear generation is anticipated to remain broadly stable in 2025, followed by a growth of 2% in 2026. Renewables are projected to continue expanding at around 10% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026. Solar PV is expected to lead this expansion, with growth of 26% in 2025 and 18% in 2026, making it the largest contributor to new power generation. Wind generation is forecast to increase by around 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.

In the first half of 2025, gas-fired generation in the European Union is estimated to have increased by almost 20% y-o-y. Coal-fired generation also rose by around 3% in H1 2025, in contrast to the declines observed during the same period in both 2023 and 2024. The rise in fossil-fired generation was driven by weak renewables output, which necessitated a greater reliance on dispatchable thermal output. Hydropower generation declined by a sharp 15% y-o-y during H1 2025 due to a lack of rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the region. Wind power output also fell by almost 10% due to poor wind speeds. By contrast, solar PV generation continued to expand, increasing by more than 20% compared with the same period in 2024. Nuclear output rose by just over 1%, supported by improved plant availability, particularly in France, which accounts for over half of the nuclear power generation in the European Union.

In the forecast period, coal-fired generation is projected to decline by around 3% in 2025, as a rise in the first half of the year is expected to be more than offset by a decline in the second half, driven by an assumed recovery in renewable generation. This is expected to be followed by a more pronounced contraction of more than 20% in 2026 under normal weather assumptions, and as a result, the share of coal-fired generation is set to fall below 10% for the first time. Gas-fired generation, on the other hand, is expected to rise by around 4% in 2025, before decreasing by around 10% in 2026.

Renewable power generation is forecast to rise by a muted 2% in 2025 amid lower wind and hydro output in H1, then by a further 12% in 2026 under normal weather conditions. Solar PV is expected to lead the growth, with output increasing by around 22% in 2025 and 16% in 2026. Wind generation is expected to record a decline of around 3% in 2025 for the full year amid lower wind speeds in H1, before rising sharply by 17% in 2026. Together, wind and solar PV are projected to surpass fossil-fired power generation in 2025, assuming normal weather conditions in the second half of the year. As a result, the share of low-emissions sources in the power mix is projected to exceed 75% in 2026, up from 71% in 2024.

In a complex sequence of events, on 28 April Spain and Portugal experienced a blackout, which affected tens of millions of people and businesses across these countries. According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), the system parameters of the Spanish and Portuguese electricity systems collapsed at 12:33:24 CEST. Restoration of the transmission grid was completed on 29 April at just after midnight in Portugal and then around four hours later in Spain. A small area in France close to the Spanish border was also affected for a limited duration. Official assessments conducted by national authorities as well as the expert panel convened by the ENTSO-E, with participation from regulators, including the EU Agency for Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), will be vital in providing data-driven insights to fully understand the event. The blackout underscores the critical importance of electricity security, as emphasised in a recent IEA commentary.