• Hydrogen production today is associated with emissions1 of almost 1 300 Mt CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) and there has been no progress in reducing them – in contrast, emissions have edged up in recent years.

• However, the increase in global production (which neared 100 Mt in 2024) has kept the global average emissions intensity of hydrogen production almost constant over the past 5 years.

• Renewable and low-carbon hydrogen remains more expensive than hydrogen from unabated fossil fuels.

• The cost gap has increased recently due to slower-than-expected deployment, inflation and the fall in fossil fuel prices.

• Electrolyser capital cost 2 is expected to decrease through scale-up, innovation and improved manufacturing, but cost declines will depend on the pace of deployment

• Renewable and low-carbon hydrogen reached 0.8 Mt in 2024, making up less than 1% of global production.

• Based on projects with a final investment decision (FID), renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production can reach over 4 Mt by 2030, but they represent only 9% of all announced projects (up from 6% last year).

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

• Uncertainty around regulations relating to emission levels considered acceptable by countries when determining eligibility for support schemes has been delaying investment decisions on both supply and demand, as private sector investors may be at risk of non-compliance.

• Consistency with ISO standards can facilitate mutual recognition of certificates, which is critical to minimise market fragmentation and ensure that trade is not limited to bilateral agreements.

• Referring to the emissions intensity of hydrogen in regulations can support a technology-neutral approach.

Quantitative indicators for success

• Number of countries with rules on emissions thresholds for hydrogen production using methodologies consistent with ISO standards.

• Share of global hydrogen production located in countries with rules on emissions thresholds for hydrogen production using methodologies consistent with ISO standards.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

• The IEA Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) “Task” for the Certification of Hydrogen and Derivatives is developing a technical mutual recognition framework for certification schemes.

• The International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPHE) and the IEA Hydrogen TCP co-ordinated the development of a Hydrogen Certification 101 paper, which benefited from contributions of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the Hydrogen Council and the International Power-to-X Hub. The paper aims to create a common language on certification, which could help to enable mutual recognition of certificates.

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

• Policy support is fundamental to stimulate demand for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen, which could, in turn, unlock investment on the supply side and ultimately result in infrastructure development.

• Stimulating demand can enable scale-up of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production, which can lead to production cost reductions through economies of scale and learning-by-doing.

• Demand-pull policies can stimulate technology innovation and advance demonstration projects, particularly in new high-value end-use applications such as steel, shipping and aviation.

Quantitative indicators for success

• Number of countries with implemented demand-pull policies (including carbon contracts for difference, fuel standards, grants for demand creation, loan and loan guarantees on the demand side, mandates and quotas, public procurement instruments and tax incentives for the demand side) in existing hydrogen applications (refining, ammonia production and methanol production).

• Share of global hydrogen demand covered by the above-mentioned implemented policies for the adoption of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

• The outcome of talks on the proposed International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Net-Zero Framework, if approved by IMO member states in October 2026 following an adjournment of discussions in 2025, could provide maritime operators with greater future visibility on the need to adopt low-emissions fuels (including renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and derivatives). This can stimulate long-term offtake agreements for fuels that are normally purchased on the spot market.

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

• Project developers are struggling to secure creditworthy offtake agreements that can help to de-risk projects.

• A significant number of offtake agreements have been announced in the past 5 years, but the majority remain preliminary, without any binding conditions for suppliers and offtakers, and without long-term commitment.

• Securing firm, long-term offtake agreements is the principal method of de-risking investment on the supply side.

Quantitative indicators for success

• Cumulative firm offtake agreements for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

• Several buyers’ platforms for derivatives produced using hydrogen (including e-fuels) are helping to pool demand for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and providing an opportunity to negotiate advanced offtake agreements. Examples include the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance, the Zero Emissions Maritime Buyers Alliance and the Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform.

Why is it important to achieve the success statement to reach the sectoral breakthrough goal?

• Progress on the production and use of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) has been limited, despite their strong potential for cost-competitive production, and opportunities to benefit from economic development and reduced dependency on imported fossil fuels.

• Projects under development in EMDEs face significant financial barriers, particularly due to the comparatively high cost of capital, which is preventing investment decisions.

• Scale-up of concessional finance must be accompanied by continued support for technical assistance to address other barriers, such as unclear or incomplete regulatory frameworks and lack of infrastructure readiness, and to address over-reliance on export markets rather than domestic opportunities to create in-country wealth.

Quantitative indicator for success

• Kilotonnes per year of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production capacity facilitated by concessional finance reaching final investment decision (FID) in EMDEs.

Qualitative examples of collaboration

• At COP 29, development finance institutions pledged to support the World Bank’s 10 GW Lighthouse Initiative, with the objective of helping developing country projects of 100 MW – 1 GW to reach FIDs by 2030. There are now 15 participating development finance institutions.

• The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)’s Accelerate-to-Demonstrate (A2D) Facility supported Namibia’s first project for fertiliser production using renewable hydrogen to begin construction.

• The World Bank’s Climate Investment Fund and Green Climate Fund have provided concessional finance for projects in Brazil and Paraguay.