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Sheltering From Oil Shocks Summary
The conflict in the Middle East has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, due to the near halt in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Some 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of oil products typically traversed the Strait each day, equivalent to around 20% of global oil consumption. These flows have slowed to a trickle. The loss of supply is having significant impacts in global markets, pushing up prices for crude oil above $100/barrel, and leading to much higher prices for some refined products – notably diesel…
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What Next for the Global Car Industry Executive summary
…as the energy sector the most, and explains the focus of this report. ICE sales will not fade quickly – car manufacturers must navigate transitions that move at different speeds Even as ICE car sales are set to continue declining in China and advanced economies in aggregate over the coming years, they are likely to rise in other regions. Different regional technology mixes pose challenges for the global industry. Today, Japanese carmakers supply two-thirds of cars sold in Southeast Asia and over half of those sold in the Middle East and India; European carmakers have a nearly 50% market share…
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Global Hydrogen Review 2026 Key questions about hydrogen
…in the Middle East affected supplies of fertilisers and chemicals made from hydrogen? The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted not only oil and gas flows, but also global supply chains for hydrogen‑based products, particularly fertilisers and chemicals such as ammonia, urea and methanol. These products account for a large share of hydrogen demand, with ammonia and methanol alone representing roughly half of global consumption.The Middle East plays a critical role in global markets for hydrogen-based products, and a large share of its production is dedicated to exports, making the region a major player in global trade…
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World Energy Outlook 2025 Implications of CPS and STEPS
Between continuity and change By 2035, energy demand in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) is around 35 exajoules (EJ) higher than in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), a difference roughly equivalent to the current annual energy demand of the Middle East. All the extra energy required in the CPS compared to the STEPS comes from oil, natural gas and coal. In the absence of renewed geopolitical disruptions, markets for oil and natural gas appear well supplied in the coming years. But production from existing oil fields declines at a rate of 8% per year, if no investment is made, so it…
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Oil 2025 Executive summary
Turbulent times in oil markets Heightened geopolitical risks, unresolved trade tensions, and policy shifts have added myriad uncertainties to the oil market outlook. Since the start of the year, major economic forecasters have cut their outlooks for world GDP growth in 2025 by roughly half a percentage point to around 2.8% and see a below-trend pace of about 3% annually for the remainder of the decade, with knock-on implications for oil demand. With conflicts in the Middle East region at risk of intensifying and trade negotiations ongoing, uncertainties surrounding our forecasts are substantial. At the same time…
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Sheltering From Oil Shocks Road transport fuels
…to work from home, where possible, and close public buildings on certain days.Policy examples: In response to the 2026 crisis in the Middle East, several countries have announced measures to encourage working from home. For example, the Philippines and Pakistan have mandated 4-day workweeks for government workers, while Sri Lanka has closed public offices on Wednesdays, and Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam are all actively promoting remote work. Many European governments also encouraged working from home in response to the energy crisis in 2022-23, including through the joint IEA-EU Playing my Part Campaign. For example…
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Global EV Outlook 2026 Executive summary
…at least 10% of new car sales. Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global electric car sales in 2025, while European and North American automakers were each responsible for about 15% of global sales. The ongoing energy crisis resulting from the conflict in the Middle East has brought reliance on oil imports into sharp focus in many countries. The road transport sector represents close to half of oil demand today, and policy responses to the long tail of the current crisis stand to shape the global car market for years to come. The oil crisis of the 1970s prompted the…
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Renewables 2025 Renewable electricity
…the Middle East, ASEAN countries, Latin America and Eurasia – in addition to Europe and India. Offshore wind capacity expansion is expected to reach 140 GW over the forecast period, more than doubling the growth of the previous five-year period. The annual offshore wind market expands from 9.2 GW in 2024 to over 37 GW by 2030, with China accounting for almost 50% of this increase. In Europe, the annual market is expected to approach 14.6 GW by 2030. Policy changes in the United States, macroeconomic pressures and supply chain challenges have raised costs and undermined project bankability in several European markets…
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Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 Regional snapshots
…unlock untapped reserves. Australia, a major player in global critical mineral supply chains, continues to expand its mining activities, alongside efforts to move up the value chain, supported by robust environmental, social and governance standards and government financing support. Africa seeks to leverage its resources to maximise economic benefits through local processing, enhance bilateral co-operation and advocate transparency in critical mineral supply chains. The Middle East sees mineral commodities as a strategic pillar in economic diversification and are deploying longer-term capital across the value chain. The regional snapshot section is a new addition this year, offering a concise…
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The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates Executive summary
…the shale revolution, overall oil and gas output still relies heavily on a small number of supergiant fields, largely in the Middle East, Eurasia and North America, which together accounted for almost half of global oil and gas production in 2024.Detailed analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields from around the world reveals that the global average annual observed post‑peak decline rate is 5.6% for conventional oil and 6.8% for conventional natural gas. This varies widely by field type: supergiant oil fields decline by an average of 2.7% annually, while the average…
