Annual heat consumption expanded by 6% globally over 2018-2024. Renewable energy, excluding traditional uses of biomass, met only half of this increase, with its share in global heat consumption rising to 14% in 2024.1 Nearly 80% of global growth in renewable heat use was in the form of bioenergy (especially in industry) and renewable electricity (mainly in buildings).

Industry sector renewable heat use grew the most in China over the last six years, driven by the expansion of industries such as metals, chemicals, textiles, food and beverages that increasingly use biomass residue and electricity for process heat, supported by strong policy incentives and falling renewable electricity prices. The next-largest increases came from India, led by the expansion of the sugar and ethanol industries, where biomass residue play a central role and a rising use of electricity for process heat. In the European Union, growth was mainly due to greater electrification of industrial use and the expanding role of geothermal energy thanks to strong policy measures (e.g. grants and drilling-risk insurance), infrastructure support and emerging strategies such as clean-heat targets and carbon pricing.

In the buildings sector, three-quarters of renewable heat developments in the past six years took place in China, the European Union and the United States.2 Heat pump deployment has played a major role in all these markets, translating into rising consumption of both electricity and ambient heat for space and water heating. Large additional contributions also came from electric heating equipment and solar thermal and geothermal developments in China.

Renewable heat consumption is expected to accelerate slightly over the outlook period, rising more than 42% (+12 EJ) globally during 2025-2030 – twice the increase of the previous six-year period. Nonetheless, this growth represents just 70% of the projected global increase in total heat demand, leading to rising fossil fuel consumption for heat and associated CO₂ emissions (+4%/+0.6 Gt CO₂ in annual emissions). Over 2025-2030, cumulative heat-related CO₂ emissions are anticipated to total 100 Gt CO₂ – more than one-fifth of the carbon budget remaining for a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.3

Industrial heat demand is projected to expand 14% (+16 EJ) globally during 2025-2030, with China and India together accounting for more than half of the growth. Over this period, renewable heat developments are expected to represent 44% of additional heat demand, despite nearly 50% growth in consumption. The share of renewable energy sources in global industrial heat consumption is therefore anticipated to continue rising only slowly, from 12% in 2024 to 16% in 2030.

Renewable electricity makes by far the largest contribution to projected renewable heat developments in industry, representing nearly 80% of the growth in annual consumption over the forecast period. This trend results from rising shares of renewables in electricity generation and, even more significantly, the tripling of electricity consumption for process heat.

This growing reliance on electricity for process heat (from 4% of global industrial heat consumption in 2024 to 12% in 2030) comes mostly from non-energy-intensive industries, with industrial heat pumps increasingly meeting temperature needs of up to 200°C, and from scrap metal recycling and aluminium industries, which use electric arc furnaces. China leads this trend, enlarging its use of renewable electricity for process heat nearly sixfold over the outlook period, representing more than half of global growth while the European Union, the United States, India and Japan together account for one-third of it.

Remaining industry sector growth in renewable heat use comes essentially from rising bioenergy consumption (+1.7 EJ/+14%), which remains by far the largest renewable energy source globally, meeting around 11% of global industrial heat demand over the outlook period. Nearly 60% of this projected growth takes place in India. However, global bioenergy developments essentially reflect expanding industrial activity rather than fuel switching. 

Global heat consumption in the buildings sector is expected to remain flat during 2025-2030, as increases in China, sub-Saharan Africa, the Caspian region and most of Southeast Asia (resulting from population growth, changes in living standards and greater service sector activity) offset declines in the United States, India, Japan and Indonesia (owing to energy efficiency improvements).4 Modern uses of renewable energy sources for space and water heating, as well as for cooking, are projected to expand nearly 40% in the meantime, raising the share of renewables in the buildings sector heat consumption from 16% in 2024 to 21% in 2030, and displacing 5.2 EJ of fossil fuel consumption by 2030.

Renewable electricity remains the fastest-growing renewable heat source in buildings during the outlook period, its use expanding by two-thirds globally (+2.3 EJ) and contributing 44% of the sectoral increase in renewable heat consumption. China, India, the European Union and the United States lead this trend, making up over 70% of global growth in renewable electricity use for heat in buildings. In contrast with the industry sector, three-quarters of this growth results from a rising share of renewables in power generation, while the rest comes from the deployment of new electric heaters, boilers and heat pumps.

Global heat pump sales declined slightly in 2024 by 1% . The EU market experienced the steepest drop by 21% , while in the United States heat pump purchases exceeded those of gas furnaces. The Chinese market – the world’s largest heat pump market – remained stable, however, due to the global economic slowdown.

Furthermore, heat pumps participate in renewable heat uptake not only by using electricity but by harnessing ambient heat, which represents one-quarter of global growth in renewable heat consumption in buildings during 2025-2030 – the second-largest increase (+1.3 EJ) after renewable electricity. This expanding ambient heat contribution comes primarily from China, followed by the European Union and the United States, owing to strong policy support (investment grants, fiscal incentives and loans, including at the state level).

Bioenergy will no longer remain the largest renewable heat source in buildings globally by 2030, as it will be overcome by renewable electricity. Bioenergy will account for 20% (0.9 EJ) of modern renewable heat developments in the sector over the outlook period. Modern bioenergy use in buildings expands most notably in sub-Saharan Africa, China and India, where improved biomass cookstoves and heating stoves are replacing traditional uses of biomass.

Solar thermal heat consumption in buildings is projected to increase by 25% (+0.4 EJ) during 2025-2030. Despite domestic market contraction since 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdowns, China continues to dominate global solar thermal developments, being responsible for over 40% of consumption growth during the outlook period. Meanwhile, the direct use of geothermal heat is set to more than double (+0.18 EJ) in renewable heat consumption in buildings worldwide, with China expected to remain the main driver.