With greater use of renewable electricity, liquid biofuels, biogases and renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, renewable energy consumption in transport is expected to rise 50% by 2030. The largest share of this growth (45%) will come from renewable electricity used for electric vehicles, especially in China and Europe.

Road biofuels contribute the second-largest share (35%), with significant growth in Brazil, Indonesia, India and Malaysia, supported by tightening mandates and rising fuel demand. Aviation and maritime fuel use makes up 10% of growth, primarily owing to mandates in Europe, and the remaining 10% comes from biomethane, renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, with activity concentrated in the United States and Europe.

Globally, EVs are expected to account for more than 15% of the vehicle stock by 2030, with renewable electricity meeting more than half of electricity demand in key markets. In China, EVs represent more than one-third of cars on the road by 2030 as vehicle costs decline and charging infrastructure continues to be enhanced. At the same time, renewable electricity is expected to make up over half of China’s total power generation.

The forecast for the use of low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in transport remains similar to last year. However, we have revised down the e-fuel forecast because there have been no final investment decisions (FIDs) for e-kerosene projects in the European Union to meet 2030 ReFuelEU aviation targets.

Renewable energy demand for road transport is projected to rise more than 2 EJ, reaching 8% of total road subsector energy use by 2030. Renewable electricity consumption for electric vehicles accounts for more than half of this growth, concentrated mainly in China and Europe as renewable electricity generation increases and electric vehicle fleets expand.

Liquid biofuels make up most of the remainder, with biofuel demand growth concentrated in Brazil (40%), Indonesia (20%), India (15%), Europe (10%) and Canada (7%), where biofuel support policies become more stringent over the forecast period. Total biofuel demand in 2030 has been revised 10% upwards from our last forecast, largely reflecting increased transport fuel demand in the United States, Brazil, Indonesia and India.

Sustainable aviation fuel consumption is expected to expand from 1 billion litres (0.04 EJ) in 2024 to 9 billion litres (0.31 EJ) in 2030, meeting 2% of total aviation fuel demand in the main case. Mandates in the European Union and United Kingdom, incentives in the United States and blending targets in Japan drive most of this growth. The forecast remains unchanged from last year, however, since few new policies have been implemented since our previous (October 2024) edition of this report. E-kerosene is forecast to account for only 5% of total SAF production in 2030, since only Europe mandates its use.

Maritime biodiesel demand is projected to double to 1.6 billion litres (0.05 EJ) by 2030, making up near 1% of total maritime fuel demand. The primary region for growth continues to be Europe, where fuel suppliers are required to meet GHG intensity reduction targets of 2% by 2025 and 6% by 2030 and are subject to carbon pricing under the EU ETS. Elsewhere, expansion remains limited due to the absence of mandates and incentives.

In the United States, lower EV sales and recent changes to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards that reduce overall fleet efficiency have prompted us to increase our transport fuel demand forecast from last year. Gasoline and diesel demand in Brazil and Indonesia are also expected to climb more quickly than was previously projected, raising ethanol and biodiesel demand at fixed blending rates. As a result, we have revised projected demand growth for liquid biofuels upwards by 50% through 2030. Policy changes – including increased biodiesel blending mandates in Indonesia, and Spain’s proposed transport GHG intensity target – contribute to higher demand.

The United States remains the largest biofuel producer and consumer to 2030, followed by Brazil, Europe, Indonesia and India. In this year’s forecast, US biofuel demand is slightly (3%) above the 2024 level in 2030, while last’s year’s forecast anticipated a 5% decline. In contrast, biofuel demand jumps 30% (0.35 EJ) in Brazil, 30% (0.27 EJ) in Europe, 50% (0.23 EJ) in Indonesia and 80% (0.12 EJ) in India. All regions are strengthening their mandates and GHG intensity regulations during the forecast period. In the rest of the world, growth is led by Canada (+0.06 EJ) and Thailand (+0.05 EJ).

On average, net-transport-fuel-importing countries globally relied on imports for over 55% of their oil demand in 2024, compared with 60% in the scenario in which no biofuels were consumed. For certain countries, the impacts of using biofuels are more significant: for instance, Brazil realises a 24‑percentage-point decrease in import dependence. In Indonesia, India, Brazil and Malaysia (some of the world’s fastest-growing transport fuel demand markets), rising biofuel mandates curb import growth. In these four countries, oil import dependence is projected to increase just 6% from 2024 to 2030, even though fuel demand rises 18% during this period.

The impacts of biofuels on transport fuel import dependence vary by country as well as by fuel type. For gasoline, Brazil experiences the most significant impact, achieving a 45-percentage-point decrease in import dependence (nearly eliminating the need for gasoline imports) through a combination of mandates, fiscal support, GHG intensity reduction targets and the use of flex-fuel vehicles that can operate on higher ethanol blends.

Meanwhile, Indonesia reduces its diesel import dependence by near 30 percentage points through two primary policy mechanisms designed to decrease diesel imports and boost biodiesel consumption: a biodiesel mandate that enforced minimum blending of 40% in 2025, and a subsidy covering the price difference between biodiesel and conventional diesel, ensuring that biodiesel remains economically competitive.

Performance-based standards and GHG thresholds now cover 80% of global biofuel demand, with near-universal coverage in advanced economies. In a smaller group of countries, performance-based standards serve as a primary driver of biofuel deployment. These policies – designed to reward GHG intensity reductions – supported 20% of global biofuel demand in 2024 and are projected to underpin nearly one-third by 2030.

The United States, Canada, Germany and Sweden rely on performance-based frameworks as their main policy tool to expand low-carbon fuel use. France, Spain, the Netherlands and Romania plan to implement similar systems by 2030, and the IMO has announced a global fuel standard for international shipping starting in 2028. In contrast, GHG thresholds or performance-based mechanisms cover only half of biofuel demand in emerging economies. Brazil is the only emerging economy with a dedicated performance-based policy in force, through its RenovaBio programme.

Most emerging-economy support for biofuels consists of blending mandates or technology-specific incentives. Nonetheless, producers in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and India increasingly certify their fuels through international schemes such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) initiative or the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) programme to meet export requirements. In Indonesia and Malaysia, certification is common for fuels entering the European market or for use in aviation under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). India has also stated its ambition to become a major exporter of sustainable aviation and maritime fuels, with several SAF projects under development and a national certification framework in progress for maritime fuels.

While the 2030 forecast for biofuels remains positive, several producers – especially of biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) – continued to experience tight to negative margins in 2025. We forecast a 20% drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel use in 2025 (from 2024) in the United States and production down nearly 15%. In the United States and Canada, several plants have been idled or had their output reduced because of policy uncertainty, low credit values and higher feedstock costs.

Output in the United States fell sharply, with drops of 40% for biodiesel and 12% for renewable diesel from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values under the US RFS were down more than 50% from 2023 throughout 2024 and early 2025, while California’s LCFS credits remained depressed. Combined with flat/ rising feedstock prices, this significantly eroded profitability for producers, and uncertainty surrounding tax credits, changes to the RFS and final implementation details for the new 45Z tax credit further dampened producer enthusiasm in early 2025.

New trade developments are also influencing producer decisions. In May 2025, the United Kingdom signed a revised trade agreement with the United States, reducing duties on US ethanol for the first 1.4 billion litres of imports. In August 2025 Vivergo fuels announced that it had ceased production and commenced closing procedures.

In the accelerated case, global biofuel demand reaches 310 billion litres per year (8.5 EJ) by 2030 – an increase of 30% relative to the main case – driven by the full implementation of policies already announced or under development. Almost half of this additional demand would come from the strengthening of existing road transport policies: the greater use of higher-ethanol blends in the United States; full transposition of RED III transport targets across the European Union; and the expansion of blending mandates in Brazil, Indonesia and India.

The other half of this growth would stem from biofuels entering new market segments, for instance through India’s biodiesel blending targets, the implementation of planned SAF mandates in multiple countries, the IMO’s forthcoming global fuel standard, and modest biofuel blending in China.

However, realising this growth will require more than demand signals. Achieving the accelerated trajectory would necessitate an additional 125 million tonnes of feedstock supplies, but vegetable, waste and residue fats, oils and greases are already under particularly high demand for biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel production. To meet sustainability requirements and diversify the feedstock base, feedstock strategies will need to emphasise land-efficient practices such as yield optimisation, intercropping, sequential cropping, and cultivation of marginal or degraded land.

Furthermore, with the support of grants, concessional financing, guaranteed pricing and targeted blending mandates, it will also be essential to scale up the use of emerging technologies that rely on more diverse or abundant feedstocks (cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch renewable diesel and biojet fuels are potential pathways, especially post 2030). Even for mature technologies, financial derisking remains critical to support investments in new geographies and sectors.

On 11 April 2025, the IMO reached a provisional agreement on a global GHG fuel standard for international shipping. We estimate this framework could result in 0.4 EJ of new renewable fuel demand by 2030 in the accelerated case, and 2.5‑3.5 EJ by 2035. In the short term, biodiesel, renewable diesel and bio-LNG are likely to meet most new demand owing to their commercial readiness, availability and ship compatibility. By 2035, however, there is considerable uncertainty around which fuels – and how much – will be used to meet the IMO standard.

Meeting post-2030 targets would require more widespread deployment of low-emissions fuels. For instance, achieving the 2035 base target would necessitate nearly 3 EJ of fuels and energy sources emitting under 19 g CO2‑eq/MJ – nearly half of today’s global renewable fuel use. Fuels with higher GHG intensities can still qualify but must be used in larger volumes. Improved energy efficiency and reduced oil/coal shipping (from quicker global electric vehicle and renewable electricity expansion) could cut fuel demand by nearly 30% (requiring just under 2.5 EJ), making compliance easier. Meeting the direct target in this scenario would require just under 3.5 EJ of low-emissions fuels and energy sources.

Key implementation details and a final vote on implementation are still pending, including treatment of indirect land use change, default carbon intensities, credit trading and banking rules, post-2030 remedial unit pricing, verification protocols, and integration of revised energy efficiency requirements. Fuel blending is also not mandatory; shipowners may instead purchase remedial units. Formal adoption is expected in October 2025, with entry into force in 2028.