• By 2035, energy demand in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) is around 35 exajoules (EJ) higher than in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), a difference roughly equivalent to the current annual energy demand of the Middle East. All the extra energy required in the CPS compared to the STEPS comes from oil, natural gas and coal.  

• In the absence of renewed geopolitical disruptions, markets for oil and natural gas appear well supplied in the coming years. But production from existing oil fields declines at a rate of 8% per year, if no investment is made, so it does not take long for supply to tighten – especially with higher oil demand in the CPS. Around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of new supply from yet-to-be approved projects come through in the STEPS by 2035 to ensure a balance between supply and demand, and around 25 mb/d in the CPS. 

• Emerging market and developing economies in Asia, including China, are the destination for nearly 60% of the oil and gas exported globally in 2035 in both scenarios, up from 45% today. The total fossil fuel import bill for these countries rises by 40% in the CPS over the next ten years, reaching USD 1.2 trillion by 2035. Although total energy investment is marginally lower in the CPS than in the STEPS, energy prices and overall energy bills are generally higher. 

• Supplies of key critical minerals are catching up with demand growth to 2035 if anticipated projects come through on time, with the important exception of copper. But the high level of market concentration means that there is a risk of significant shortfalls if supply from the largest producing countries is disrupted for any reason.  

• By 2035, electricity is responsible for around 25% of total final consumption in both scenarios, compared with 21% today. By then, around half of global economic output depends directly on electricity, and peaks in demand are rising, exacerbated by periods of extreme heat that push up cooling use. Both scenarios show a more complex electricity system in which the increasing use of electricity underlines the vital and growing importance of electricity security.  

• A new IEA dataset shows that extreme weather events caused operational disruptions to critical energy infrastructure and power outages to 210 million households in 2023. Extreme temperatures driving up peak demand could lead to a loss of two-thirds of planning reserve margins in the worst affected regions, underlining the need for increased climate resilience planning and implementation.  

• High levels of emissions point towards a temperature rise above pre-industrial levels of 2.9 °C in the CPS and 2.5 °C in the STEPS by 2100, well above the levels targeted in the Paris Agreement.  

Energy security cannot be measured with a single indicator: multiple risks and opportunities coexist across both the STEPS and CPS.

Electricity accounts for an increasing share of household bills across both scenarios.

Among other risks, extreme temperatures impact electricity demand and supply.