Global renewable power capacity is expected to double between now and 2030, increasing by 4 600 gigawatts (GW). This is roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s power generation capacity combined to the global energy mix. Solar PV accounts for almost 80% of the global increase, followed by wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal. In more than 80% of countries worldwide, renewable power capacity is set to grow faster between 2025 and 2030 than it did over the previous five-year period. However, challenges including grid integration, supply chain vulnerabilities and financing are also increasing.

The increase in solar PV capacity is set to more than double over the next five years, dominating the global growth of renewables. Low costs, faster permitting and broad social acceptance continue to drive the accelerating adoption of solar PV. Wind power faces supply chain issues, rising costs and permitting delays – but global capacity is still expected to nearly double to over 2 000 GW by 2030 as major economies like China and the European Union address these challenges. Hydropower is set to account for 3% of new renewable power additions to 2030. The faster growth of pumped storage plants between 2025-30 leads to a much greater increase in hydropower compared with the previous five years. In 2030, annual geothermal capacity additions are expected to reach a historic high, triple the 2024 increase, driven by growth in the United States, Indonesia, Japan, Türkiye, Kenya and the Philippines.

The forecast for growth in global renewable power capacity is revised down slightly, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and China. The renewable energy growth forecast for the 2025-2030 period is 5% lower compared with last year’s report, reflecting policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024. The forecast for the United States is revised down by almost 50%. This reflects several policy changes, including the earlier phase out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land. China’s shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is impacting project economics and lowering growth expectations. Nonetheless, China continues to account for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach its recently announced 2035 wind and solar target five years ahead of schedule, extending its track record of early delivery.

The outlook for renewables is more positive in India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies compared with last year’s forecast. India’s renewable expansion is driven by higher auction volumes, new support for rooftop solar projects, and faster hydropower permitting. The country is on track to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years. In the European Union, the growth forecast has been revised upwards slightly as a result of higher-than expected utility-scale solar PV capacity installations, driven by strong corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) activity in Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. This offsets a weaker outlook for offshore wind. The Middle East and North Africa forecast has been revised up by 25%, the biggest regional upgrade, due to rapid solar PV growth in Saudi Arabia. In Southeast Asia, solar PV and wind deployment is accelerating, with more ambitious targets and new auctions.

Global renewable power capacity is expected to reach 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030 but fall short of the COP28 tripling pledge. In the United Arab Emirates in November 2023, nearly 200 countries agreed on the goal of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. This target can still be brought within reach if countries adopt enhanced policies to bridge gaps in both ambition and implementation. The accelerated case in this report sees global renewable capacity reaching 2.8 times its 2022 level by 2030 if countries minimise policy uncertainties, reduce permitting timelines, increase investment in grid infrastructure, expand flexibility to facilitate integration of variable renewables, and de-risk financing.

Major solar PV and wind manufacturers have reported large losses despite surging global installations. The financial sustainability of equipment manufacturers remains a major issue. In China, solar PV prices are down over 60% since 2023 due to supply glut of modules and competition for market share. This has reduced the margins of the largest manufacturers to -10% with cumulative losses reaching almost USD 5 billion since the beginning of 2024. Wind manufacturers outside China continue to struggle financially, reporting cumulative losses of USD 1.2 billion last year.

Despite challenges, renewable developers have either increased or maintained their capacity deployment targets for 2030 since last year. The assessment in this report shows that one-fifth of surveyed large renewables developers increased their deployment goals, while three-quarters kept them at similar levels to last year. Corporate PPAs, utility contracts and merchant plants are also a major driver, accounting for 30% of global renewable capacity expansion to 2030, double the share in last year's forecast. Both developers and buyers are benefitting from lower solar PV costs.

The offshore wind industry faces multiple challenges, with forecast growth over the next five years revised down by more than 25%. Several developers reduced their 2030 deployment targets. Lower expectations are driven by the policy shift in the United States and project cancellations and delays in Europe, Japan and India due to higher costs and supply chain challenges.

Solar PV supply chains and rare earth elements for wind turbines will remain highly concentrated in a single country, highlighting supply chain security risks. Overcapacity, low prices, trade barriers and regulatory shifts have slowed new investment in solar PV supply chains inside China, while manufacturing capacity outside of China is expanding. However, supply chain concentration for key production segments will remain above 90% in 2030, similar to today’s level. In addition, China dominates the mining (60%), and refining (90%) of rare earth elements used in magnets for large onshore and offshore wind turbines. In addition, around 90% of rare earth magnet production is also located in China. Despite diversification efforts, mining and refining is expected to remain highly concentrated through 2030.

Growing shares of wind and solar PV are transforming electricity markets, increasing integration challenges. By 2030, variable renewables will generate almost 30% of global electricity supply, double today’s level. This calls for a rapid increase in power system flexibility and grid investment in an increasing number of countries. Curtailment levels have been rising in many markets including China, Germany, Brazil, Chile, the United Kingdom and Ireland. The number of hours with negative prices has surged across multiple countries, coinciding with peak solar generation. Curtailment and negative prices signal a lack of flexibility in electricity systems and/or a mismatch between supply and demand at certain times. Growing electrification, and demand-side flexibility (e.g. smart EV chargers or heat pumps), storage (short and long term) and dispatchable power plants will be increasingly needed to integrate wind and solar PV securely and cost-effectively. More countries are introducing policies to boost dispatchability and storage, with over 10 of them launching firm-capacity auctions for solar PV and wind over the last five years.

The deployment of renewables has already reduced fuel import needs significantly in many countries, enhancing energy diversification and security. Since 2010, the world added around 2 500 GW of non-hydro renewable power capacity, about 80% of which was installed in countries that rely on fossil fuel imports. Without these renewable additions, cumulative global imports of coal and natural gas in these countries would have been 45% higher in 2023. As a result, countries have reduced coal imports by 700 million tonnes and natural gas imports by 400 billion cubic metres, saving an estimated USD 1.3 trillion since 2010.

Renewables are set to increase their share of energy demand in the transport sector from 4% today to 6% in 2030. The use of renewable electricity to power electric vehicles accounts for nearly half of the growth, concentrated mainly in China and Europe. Liquid biofuels make up most of the remainder, with growth concentrated in Brazil, followed by Europe, Indonesia, India and Canada.

Renewables are forecast to account 18% of global heat demand by 2030, up from 14% today. An expected 42% increase in consumption of heat from renewables over the next five years is driven largely by renewable electricity use in industry and buildings, as well as by rising use of bioenergy.