Context and scenario design

  • All sources of energy increased in 2024 to meet the world’s rising energy needs.  Electricity use expanded rapidly across a range of sectors. Deployment of renewable power generation again broke records in 2024, meeting more than 70% of the increase in electricity demand. Consumption of each of the fossil fuels rose. Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reached another all-time high. 

  • The energy sector faces many uncertainties. The global economy is projected to grow at an average rate of 3% in the 2024-2030 period, but changes in the global policy environment and trade outlook could lead to different outcomes. In parallel, a drift towards greater fragmentation and increased geopolitical rivalry could have major implications for energy-related trade flows. These uncertainties underscore the value of supply diversification and resilient supply chains, notably for critical minerals.   

  • Energy policies continue to evolve. The United States enhanced its backing for domestic fossil fuels and nuclear energy, while cutting support for wind, solar and electric vehicles. Many other countries also launched new policy initiatives in the last year, including a boost in policies designed to enhance energy security. Meanwhile, major gaps persist in the world’s provision of energy: 730 million people still lack access to electricity and nearly 2 billion are without access to clean cooking. 

  • These new starting conditions are reflected in a fully revised and updated set of scenarios in this World Energy Outlook (WEO). All take as their starting point the same GDP and population assumptions. None of the scenarios are forecasts.  

  • The Current Policies Scenario (CPS) considers a snapshot of policies and regulations that are already in place and offers a generally cautious perspective on the speed at which new energy technologies can be deployed in the energy system. 

  • The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) considers the application of a broader range of policies, including those that have been formally tabled but not yet adopted as well as other official strategy documents that indicate the direction of travel. Barriers to the introduction of new technologies are lower than in the CPS, but this scenario does not assume that aspirational targets are met. 

  • Further scenarios have normative elements and work towards defined outcomes. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario maps out an updated global pathway for the energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. An additional scenario, the Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS), is introduced in this WEO, setting out a data-driven roadmap to achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking.  

Global energy demand and emissions continue to grow

Global demand has grown by nearly 60% since 2000, with all the increase coming in emerging market and developing economies. All major energy sources grew over the period.

China India Other EMDE European Union Other advanced economies United States International bunkers 2000 2024 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions have increased by more than 50% since 2000. Emissions 654 EJ 416 Traditional use of biomass Other Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Renewables By region By fuel China 25 38 Gt CO 2 2024 2000 Bunkers India European Union Other EMDE Other advanced economies United States China India Other EMDE European Union Other advanced economies United States International bunkers 2000 2024 654 EJ 416 Traditional use of biomass Other Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Renewables By region By fuel 25 2000 Bunkers India Other EMDE United States Global energy-related CO 2 emissions have increased by more than 50% since 2000. Emissions China 38 Gt CO 2 2024 European Union Other advanced economies

Energy technology deployment accelerates

Installation of low-emissions power capacity has accelerated since 2010.
EV sales have gathered pace since 2020.

Wind Solar PV 2010 100% 50% 2024 China Advanced economies Other EMDE Other low-emissions Plug-in hybrid Battery electric Share of new car sales Share of power generation capacity additions Wind Solar PV 2010 100% 50% 2024 China Advanced economies Other EMDE China Advanced economies Other EMDE Other
low-emissions Plug-in hybrid Battery electric Share of new car sales Share of power generation capacity additions