The importance of the growth in EV sales for the car industry

Highlights

  • In 2024, more than one-fifth of all cars sold globally were electric. Policies remain key to growth in many regions, although falling prices make affordability an increasingly important driver. In China, two-thirds of battery electric cars sold in 2024 were cheaper than internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalents. In other major markets like Europe and North America, electric cars remain more expensive on average. But prices have been falling in many emerging economies on the back of affordable Chinese imports; in Southeast Asia, this helped push the share of electric car sales to 9% in 2024, almost double the share in 2023.

Battery electric car price premium over conventional cars versus share of Chinese imports in domestic electric car sales in selected emerging markets, 2023-2024

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  • For the same output power, an electric drive is about 60% cheaper, nearly 3 times lighter and generally requires less space than a comparable ICE powertrain. The costs of storage are vastly different: while the fuel tank of an ICE car costs around USD 200, a battery costs around USD 6 500 on average. The value of materials used in a battery electric car is up to 60% higher than in an ICE car, due to the critical mineral content. Demand for refined battery minerals, the supply of which tends to be concentrated in China, is set to keep growing, especially for lithium, for which electric cars already account for over 50% of global demand.

Battery electric and internal combustion engine car critical mineral demand

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Differences in powertrain structure and cost between internal combustion engine and battery electric cars

Fuel tank USD 100-200 Transmission USD 1.500-2.000 Engine USD 4.500-5.500 Exhaust system USD 300-500 Power → 150kW INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE CAR Power electronics USD 1.300-1.600 Battery USD 6.000-9.000 Electric motor USD 900-1.100 Power → 150kW Battery → 65kWh BATTERY ELECTRIC CAR
  • Around a decade ago, several major automakers already had electrification strategies, but approaches differed. Chinese automakers and Tesla were particularly successful at quickly reaching economies of scale for electric cars. Before 2020, only 6 battery electric models had reached the production threshold of 50 000 units per year – 3 were Chinese models, 2 were Tesla models, and 1 was the Nissan Leaf.

  • While incumbent original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) initially focused on nickel-based batteries because of their superior energy density, Chinese manufacturers succeeded in advancing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries, which rely less on critical minerals and are therefore cheaper. By 2024, all OEMs either sold or planned to sell cars with LFP batteries, though China maintains a near-monopoly on the technology.

  • The automotive industry spent around 5% of its revenues on R&D in 2015-2023. Although Chinese OEMs on average invested significantly less, spending only 2% of revenues on R&D in 2016, investment has risen in recent years and accounted for 5% of their revenues in 2024.

Overview of key policies supporting the electric car industry in major markets, 2000-2024

Demand-side policies Charging infrastructure support Financial incentives for vehicle purchase Fuel economy or CO₂ standards Supply-side policies Industrial policy: EV manufacturing Industrial policy: Battery manufacturing and critical mineral supply EV sales share 50% 0% 15% 48% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Inclusion of NEVs in national industrial plans (10th Five-Year Plan) Introduction of national fuel economy standards Automobile Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan (demonstration projects in medium/large cities) Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2015 and 2020 EV production targets) Introduction of nationwide
NEV subsidies Made in China 2025 Adoption of the white-list battery supplier rule  National Mineral
Resources Plan NEV Industry Development Plan (target: 20% sales by 2025) NEV purchase subsidies no longer available China EV sales share
15% 48% 2000 2008 2016 2024 EV sales share China Demand-side policies Charging infrastructure support Financial incentives for vehicle purchase Fuel economy or CO₂ standards EV sales share 50% 0% Supply-side policies Industrial policy: EV manufacturing Industrial policy: Battery manufacturing and critical mineral supply
Introduction of a bonus-malus system in France  European Green Cars Initiative (roadmap of R&D needs) Raw Materials Initiative Introduction of mandatory CO₂ emissions standards for new cars Introduction of the
critical raw material list Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation Revision of CO₂ standards revision (100% zero-emission cars sales from 2035 onwards) Critical Raw Materials Act (developing resilient supply chains) Net-Zero Industry Act (supporting local EV manufacturing) European Battery Alliance established to develop competitive and sustainable EU battery value chain European Union 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 22% 10% EV sales share
2000 2008 2016 2024 EV sales share 22% 10% European Union
American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program  Introduction of credit multipliers for EVs within the fuel economy standards Executive Order 13990
(50% EV sales target for 2030) Critical Minerals Strategy
and Innovation Hub Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals Energy Independence and Security Act (introduced tax credits for EVs) Inflation Reduction Act introduced domestic content requirements for EVs to qualify for tax credits United States 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 EV sales share 5% 10%
5% 10% 2000 2008 2016 2024 EV sales share United States