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World Energy Outlook 2025 Stated Policies Scenario
…new fuels generally struggle to gain market share and remain heavily dependent on policy support to compete. Energy-sector CO2 emissions peak near term at just over 38 gigatonne (Gt), falling to 35 Gt by the mid-2030s and below 30 Gt by 2050 – a level last seen in 2005 – driven mainly by reduced coal use in China’s power sector. Emissions from end-use sectors flatten but do not decline significantly. Europe sees one of the largest percentage drops. By 2100, the global temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 °C. Peaks and valleys of the Stated Policies Scenario Where the energy...
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World Energy Investment 2025 Executive summary
…USD 1.1 trillion going to oil, natural gas and coal. Open questions about the economic and trade outlook means that some investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach to new project approvals, but we have yet to see significant implications for spending on existing projects. Rapid growth in spending on energy transitions over the past five years was kicked off by post-pandemic recovery packages and then sustained by a variety of economic, technology, industrial and energy security considerations, not only by climate policies. Some 70% of the increased spending came from net fossil fuel importers. This was led by…
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Breakthrough Agenda Report 2025 Building
State of the transition Emissions Sectorial CO2 emissions trends have been fairly stable since 2018.Efficiency gains in buildings are improving energy use, but rising ownership of appliances and extreme weather increasingly offset these benefits.Emissions intensity of steel and cement is largely the same as 2020, while global construction activity has slowed in recent years. Cost Investment in building energy efficiency has risen over the past decade, but growth is now stalling, while spending on electrification grows steadily.High-efficiency building envelopes often entail higher upfront costs, constraining uptake in markets without dedicated financial support mechanisms.Strengthening the business…
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- Power
- Hydrogen
- Road transport
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Household Energy Affordability Executive summary
…Japan were on a downward trend in 2025, but they remain around 10-30% above pre-crisis levels in real terms. North America, by contrast, saw residential natural gas prices rise by around 5% in 2025, though they remain well below prices in Europe and other importing regions.The prices paid by households for energy vary widely from country-to-country, reflecting not just the cost of supply but also various additional levies, taxes and subsidies. For gasoline, taxes can account for as much as 70% of the final price charged to consumers, as is the case in some countries…
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Energy and AI AI and climate change
The emergence of AI has both raised concerns that AI-fuelled data centre growth might fuel climate change and also raised expectations that AI applications in the energy sector could help reduce emissions by unlocking new optimisations and efficiencies. As over 100 countries – and the European Union – have targets to reach net zero emissions between 2030 and 2070, it is pertinent to explore what AI’s impact on emissions could potentially be. Global fuel combustion CO2 emissions are estimated to reach 35 000 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024. Data centres account for around 180 Mt of indirect CO2 emissions today from the consumption…
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Luxembourg 2026 Executive summary
…remain low. The buildings sector accounted for over 20% of national energy-related GHG emissions, while space heating in the residential sector alone accounted for 13% of emissions in 2024. Heat pump deployment is growing but from a small base, supported by subsidies, tax incentives and advisory services. To complement these financial incentives, Luxembourg would benefit from a more strategic approach to space heating, using municipal heat mapping and heat planning to identify where district heating is viable and where electrification through heat pumps is the most cost-effective.As the largest contributor to both energy demand and emissions, the…
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Ramping up Heat Pumps in Moldova: A Roadmap Regulating the sector
…to which Moldova prioritises heat pumps in building retrofits. Appliance standards and restrictions Standards for space heating appliances define the types of equipment that can be sold, setting minimum performance and environmental criteria. These standards have been in place in many European countries since the 1990s. By limiting inefficient systems, they play a crucial role in advancing Europe’s energy transition.Several countries have gone further by introducing stringent requirements for heating systems. Since 2022, new buildings in France can no longer be fitted with oil or gas heating systems, while Germany mandates that at least 65% of energy used...
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Global Energy and Climate Model Techno-economic inputs
The Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model) uses macro drivers, techno-economic inputs and policies as input data to design and calculate the scenarios. The values for the different data categories and scenarios used in the GEC Model 2025 can be downloaded here.In particular more details regarding power generation technology costs for the Current Policies Scenario, the Stated Policies Scenario and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario can be downloaded in excel format, including detailed projections at the 2050 horizon regarding overnight capital costs, annual O&M costs, efficiencies and other contributors to electricity costs at regional…
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World Energy Outlook 2022 Outlook for electricity
…210 GW in 2030 and rise to 275 GW in 2050. Recent events, market conditions and policies are shifting views on natural gas and limiting its role, while underlining the potential for nuclear power to cut emissions and strengthen electricity security.Electricity systems faced a number of challenges to affordability and security over the last year. We estimate that market conditions and the energy crisis are raising the global average cost of electricity supply by almost 30% in 2022. The European Union is facing particular pressures following a tripling of wholesale electricity prices in the first-half of 2022 rel...
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Ramping up Heat Pumps in Moldova: A Roadmap A pathway for heat pumps
Heat pumps can strengthen Moldova’s energy security, independence, air pollution and emissions, and even improve energy affordability. Given the regional turmoil – notably in the energy sector – over the past three years and into early 2025, there is a compelling case for reducing natural gas consumption by deploying heat pumps. While Moldova is only beginning to realise its heat pump potential, this presents a significant opportunity to design the system effectively – by stimulating demand, expanding supply, financing the transition and establishing clear regulations. A comprehensive approach will help to ensure a steady and orderly deployment. The following table recommends specific…