Moldova’s new National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) lays out the country’s ambition to improve energy efficiency, reduce fossil fuel demand and decarbonise its economy. Buildings account for more than half of Moldova’s final energy consumption, with three-quarters of that used for space and water heating. Currently, these needs are met chiefly by imported natural gas and domestic biomass – two fuel sources that suffer from availability and sustainability issues. Heat pump technology offers Moldova an effective means of accelerating the transition in building heating. This roadmap discusses the status of Moldova’s heating sector, the potential for heat pump deployment, and key policy recommendations for creating and maintaining a stable heat pump sector.

Heat pumps offer multiple benefits. By implementing the policy recommendations outlined in this roadmap, Moldova can build a heat pump sector that strengthens energy security, improves efficiency, lowers greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, supports economic development and reduces energy poverty – all while advancing toward the goal of European Union membership.

Moldova lacks domestic hydrocarbon resources and imports more than 80% of its primary energy. Securing reliable natural gas and electricity supplies has long been its main energy security challenge. Replacing natural gas-fired heating technologies with heat pumps would improve the country’s energy security. The recent expansion of Moldova’s solar and wind capacity also means that heat pumps can now play a greater role in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and lowering local air pollution. Finally, Moldovan’s 2024 referendum, endorsing the goal of European Union membership, underscores the country’s commitment to European integration. Outlining an effective path to decarbonise energy use is a prerequisite for joining the bloc and heat pumps can play a central role in this.

Moldova faces several notable barriers to heat pump adoption – many of which mirror challenges seen in countries with more mature markets. These obstacles include the high upfront costs of heat pump technology and installation, alongside limited industry experience and scale. The country’s generally inefficient building stock risks blunting some of the benefits of heat pumps, since this can reduce energy cost savings and strain Moldova’s weak electricity grid. In rural areas, heavy reliance on low-cost, local biomass for heating poses significant risks to public health and the environment. Public awareness and demand for heat pumps remain low, with many consumers deterred by cost and maintenance concerns.

Additional challenges include high levels of energy poverty and a fragile electricity infrastructure, both of which must be addressed by any heating strategy. The thermal needs of urban and rural communities are also starkly different, so any heat pump rollout must account for this gap while avoiding increased hardship for vulnerable groups. Furthermore, there is a shortage of Moldovan technicians who have been trained in the installation and maintenance of heat pumps. All of these barriers are interconnected; addressing them early – guided by the policy recommendations in this roadmap – offers Moldova a strategic opportunity to accelerate progress. 

Our roadmap for scaling up heat pumps presents a phased strategy involving coordination across multiple ministries. Key policy actions scheduled to begin in 2025 for the Ministry of Energy (ENER) include developing a national heating and cooling strategy, clarifying the role of heat pumps in renewable energy targets, requiring local heating plans and updating the Renewable Energy Law. ENER also is tasked with adopting a long-term building renovation strategy and aligning the national energy performance rules with European Union directives. These early measures are critical to integrating heat pumps into Moldova’s broader decarbonisation framework.

Communication and capacity building should be prioritised from the outset, with ENER taking the lead on initiatives like public awareness campaigns, training for government officials, and stakeholder platforms to foster dialogue between citizens and industry. Responsibility for market-building actions is shared across agencies: tax and regulatory adjustments are handled by the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) while the Ministry of Environment) (ENVI is charged with encouraging electrification and discouraging the use of fossil fuels. Meanwhile, Ministry of Infrastructure and Regional Development (MIRD) and ENER should promote the expansion of domestic manufacturing and installer training. Such coordinated efforts can help lower barriers for both consumers and the heat pump industry.

Beginning in 2030, the roadmap’s focus shifts to regulatory measures. Moldova may wish to consider restrictions on fossil fuel heating systems in new and existing buildings, in line with the European Union’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). Longer-term measures include improved data collection by the National Bureau of Statistics and consideration of additional restrictions on biomass in urban areas. Overall, the timeline reflects a gradual tightening of regulations alongside increased financial support to foster an environment conducive to widespread heat pump adoption.

This roadmap takes stock of the current landscape, draws on the experience of other countries and offers policy recommendations to spark a discussion and advance heat pump adoption in Moldova – a process that is just getting underway. Decisions on policy priorities and ministerial responsibility are left to Moldova. This roadmap is intended to inform the broader discussion on heat pumps among Moldovan policy makers and experts seeking to accelerate heat pump adoption.