This chapter explores the benefits of heat pumps and their potential application in Moldova. It discusses different heat pump types and potential applications, then dives into the benefits of heat pumps in terms of energy efficiency, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, economic development and EU accession. The chapter then discusses the status of heat pumps in Moldova and their potential, addressing the applications for which they are most suited in the Moldovan context.

Heat pumps have been widely recognised as a key technology for decarbonising heating in buildings, industry and district heating systems. Global and European scenarios, from the International Energy Agency to the European Commission, acknowledge their key role in transitioning from fossil fuel-based heating systems. The IEA identifies heat pumps as the “central technology” for decarbonising heating in buildings.

To understand their benefits, a brief overview of their operation is required. Heat pumps are different than combustion heating technologies. Instead of burning a fuel such as natural gas or biomass pellets and using the heat of combustion to provide space and water heating, a heat pump uses electricity to run a vapour compression cycle that transports heat from a colder source (ambient heat) to a warmer sink. For example, the heat pump extracts heat from the cold outside air to supply warm air inside a building. If providing cooling, the heat pump works in the opposite direction: it extracts heat from the warm inside air and transports it to the outside. This process is made possible using a refrigerant, whose properties let it expand and condense at lower temperatures than air or water.

The world’s most common heat pumps use ambient air as a heat source. Air-source heat pumps can provide heating either via air (air-to-air heat pumps) or water (air-to-water heat pumps). Air-to-air heat pumps are common in the United States, Canada, the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), Australia, Norway and Sweden, where they typically supply heating (and cooling) through ductwork or by installing multiple units in various rooms of a building.

Air-to-water heat pumps – also known as hydronic heat pumps – use a water-based distribution system to provide warm water to radiators. These are most common in countries that historically have gas-based hydronic heating systems, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, the United Kingdom as well as parts of France and Italy.

Heat pumps also use the ground as a heat source. These devices are called geothermal or ground-source heat pumps and require the drilling of deep holes or digging of trenches in the ground where piping is inserted. Bodies of water, such as lakes and rivers, also can be used as a heat source for heat pumps, as is increasingly the case of large-scale heat pumps used for district heating. Waste heat also is a growing source of heat and is found in certain industrial heat pumps.

Heat pumps are widely used to provide space heating and domestic hot water in individual buildings, multi-family residential and large commercial buildings, among other typologies. Air-to-water and geothermal devices achieve this via a heat distribution system, such as radiators or underfloor heating. Air-to-air systems use forced air, sometimes with a ducted heat distribution system that transfers warm air from the heat pump output throughout the building. In reverse mode, these systems also provide cooling and are commonly known as air conditioners. Buildings are by far the most common application of heat pumps today: around 2 million were sold in Europe in 2024, chiefly for this purpose.

Examples of heat pumps in multi-family residential buildings exist across Europe. In Milan (Italy), a 120-kW air-to-water heat pump provides heating, hot water and air filtration to 21 apartments, while in Lourdes (France), three low-temperature air-to-water heat pumps service 197 apartments with R32, a low-GWP refrigerant. In Turek (Poland), a geothermal heat pump constructed in 2022 provides heating and hot water to 24 apartments. More examples of heat pumps in multi-family buildings can be found on the website of the IEA’s Technology Collaboration Programme on Heat Pumping Technologies.

Industrial heat pumps provide low-temperature process heat. This has applications for hot water and steam generation in many sectors, such as food and drink, as well as the paper, textile and chemicals industries. Industrial heat pumps can reach temperatures up to 165°C – or even higher if coupled with a waste heat source. Many European countries provide subsidies for industrial heat pumps.

Recent examples of industrial heat pumps in Europe include a device producing heat at 140°C for drying paper pulp in France, while BASF recently received government funding to construct an industrial heat pump that will use waste heat to produce 500 000 tonnes of steam per year.

In district heating networks, heat pumps supply central heat at low temperatures that is then distributed through the network to provide space and water heating to buildings. Heat pumps can replace central fossil fuel heating plants in existing district heating networks, increasing the efficiency of the full system and significantly lowering its carbon emissions. They also can serve as the heating source in newly constructed networks.

Sweden’s district heating networks run largely on heat pumps that use seawater as a heat source. In Cologne, a 150 MW heat pump was commissioned in December 2024, running on the Rhein river and supplying district heat to around 50 000 households.

Given the state of Moldova’s networks, however, deploying heat pumps for district heating presents significant technical challenges. Such systems typically provide low-temperature heat – thus requiring significant upgrades to Moldova’s thermal network as well as more energy-efficient buildings fitted with equipment (e.g. radiators and heat distribution mechanisms) that can operate at lower temperatures. A significant modernisation of Moldova’s district heating infrastructure is therefore essential.

Moldova’s heavy reliance on combined heat and power (CHP) plants for district heating provides additional options. Researchers have analysed the possibility of using heat pumps to preheat water for district heating in the city of Balti, for example, finding that this improves energy efficiency and reduces CO₂ emissions. Industry suggests that large-scale industrial heat pumps could be used to increase efficiency, reduce natural gas consumption and lower the greenhouse gas emissions of existing CHP plants. These heat pumps could run on waste heat, water sources or another suitable energy source depending on location.

Moldova’s NECP also includes measures for integrating heat pumps into district heating networks, with a particular focus on ground-source, water-to-water and waste heat recovery heat pumps. The NECP aims to integrate 7 MW of heat pumps into the country’s two main heat utilities, CET Nord and Termoelectrica.

A key advantage of heat pumps is their efficiency compared to conventional heating technologies. The newest models of combustion heating devices are typically around 95% efficient: for every 100 units of fuel they consume, they produce 95 units of heat. Typical heat pumps achieve a coefficient of performance of 3-4: for every 100 units of electricity they consume, they provide around 300-400 units of heat.

This means that replacing a fossil fuel heating system with a heat pump will result in around 80% energy savings at device level. Heat pumps are eligible for many energy efficiency obligation schemes in European countries and help contribute to national and European targets for energy efficiency.

Moldova’s growing expansion of wind and solar power also creates opportunities for a more efficient energy system based on heat pumps. This is because heat pumps can integrate effectively with a power system based on variable renewables, providing an important source of flexibility during times of low – and high – production. Using heat pumps flexibly also can contribute to grid reliability as the share of variable renewables increases.

Heat pumps typically result in lower greenhouse gas emissions than their fossil fuel counterparts. The ambient heat used by a heat pump is a renewable, emissions-free source of energy. While the electricity used to run the heat pump can be associated with emissions, the pump’s efficiency means that each unit of heat produced will require fewer emissions. Even when electricity grids are based heavily on fossil fuels, the use of efficient heat pumps can ultimately reduce emissions.

As such, using heat pumps is likely to rapidly lower any country’s greenhouse gas emissions, especially while simultaneously decarbonising the electricity supply. In Moldova, replacing a gas boiler with a heat pump would likely decrease emissions by half, while replacing a biomass pellet stove would reduce them roughly fourfold (considering the country’s carbon-intense electricity grid, which averaged around 400 kg CO₂eq/MWh from 2018-2023). While majority of the greenhouse gas emissions from pellet stoves can be considered carbon-neutral (see shaded area in the figure below), this depends on activity in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Since 2021, Moldova’s LULUCF sector has shifted from a carbon sink to a carbon source. If this trend continues, expanding biomass-based heating solutions would likely increase emissions. 

Heat pumps produce no local emissions during operation, resulting in lower air pollution compared with fossil fuel heating devices. In contrast, biomass combustion is a significant source of pollution in Moldova: some 12.5% of fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) is linked to burning fuelwood and coal for space and water heating. Any pollution associated with the lifecycle of heat pumps is produced either during their manufacture or in the production of the electricity used to power them. It should also be noted that many heat pump models also use fluorinated gases as refrigerants – potent greenhouse gases that pose their own climate risks. Proper handling and disposal can minimise their effects, however, and alternative refrigerants are available as substitutes.

Lowering the use of fossil fuels in heating is essential to addressing energy security risks, especially in countries that rely heavily on fossil fuel imports, such as Moldova. Heat pumps can help rapidly shift Moldova’s heating demand away from natural gas, a risk especially prominent since the vast majority of natural gas is used in households for home heating. Phasing out coal for heating will also greatly contribute to improved air quality, as well as energy security.

Switching to heat pumps may increase risks of other energy security concerns, however, including strained electricity supply, grid bottlenecks or power outages. We can roughly estimate that replacing natural gas and coal for space and water heating in buildings (about 8.55 PJ of energy) with heat pumps operating at a seasonal coefficient of performance (COP) of 3 would increase electricity demand by around 2.85 PJ. This is equivalent to about 10% of Moldova’s total electricity demand in 2022 (25.6 PJ) and 20% of building electricity demand (11.4 PJ).

This risk can be pronounced during colder months, when heating demand reaches its peak, heat pump performance declines, and the power grid comes under increasing pressure. Cold-climate heat pumps can be a solution, maintaining high performance even at temperatures as low as -25°C. Efficient buildings, coupled with demand-side flexibility, can help ensure the electricity grid operates normally during these peak periods.

Another important benefit of heat pumps is economic development and job creation. The IEA foresees the global heat pump work force increasing almost threefold, to 1.3 million workers by 2030 – led in particular by demand for heat pump installers. A current shortage of qualified installers is believed to have created bottlenecks in the heat pump supply chain, ultimately driving up prices. Training a skilled work force will be essential for Moldova and could open new avenues for job growth. Moldova could also bolster its economy by investing in heat pump manufacturing, securing local jobs and potentially targeting the European Union as an export market, where demand is expected to grow significantly.

Moldova defines energy poverty as a situation in which the consumer lacks access to modern energy sources and technologies, or has insufficient purchasing power for energy sources, or lacks thermal comfort at home. The NECP reiterates targets from Moldova’s 2022 national development strategy (European Moldova 2030) for reducing energy poverty, notably aiming to lower absolute poverty levels at least 50% by 2030.

In Moldova, rural households face a heavier energy cost burden than urban ones, spending around 11.8% of disposable income compared to 9.6%. This leaves rural households more vulnerable to price shocks. Meanwhile, Moldovan households with district heating tend to see lower incidences of energy poverty (2% to 5% of the population) compared to those with individual heating systems such as natural gas or biomass (10% to 17%).

Heat pumps can help reduce energy poverty by efficiently using electricity in individual applications, as well as in district heating networks, both of which tend to be associated with lower rates of energy poverty. As will be discussed, reducing energy poverty with heat pumps is contingent on rebalancing energy prices and ensuring that heat pump performance is optimal.

Moldova began open accession negotiations with the European Union in December 2023. Its successful referendum in November 2024 underscores the country’s dedication to joining the bloc. Outlining an effective path to decarbonise its energy use is a prerequisite, and heat pumps can help in this regard as well as help Moldova meet its commitments under the Energy Community Treaty. A forward-looking approach to heat pump manufacturing can also help strengthen Moldova’s status as an accession candidate whose energy sector plans align with those of the European Union.

Despite a growing interest from policy makers, heat pumps remain an uncommon technology in Moldova. Data on Moldovan heat pump usage is scarce and there is currently no entity responsible for collecting figures on heat pump sales. Where they exist, heat pumps are used primarily for building space heating. The lack of a domestic heat pump industry or a corps of trained installers means that installations are expensive – further limiting consumer demand.

There is limited data on the number of heat pumps sold and installed in Moldova. Estimates of the market can be made by analysing heat pump imports to the country. Moldova imported heat pumps valued at around USD 5 million in 2023, roughly the same as in 2022. The share of imports from the European Union rose slightly to 48%, and was driven by France (16%), Germany (8%) and Sweden (7%). China supplied 39% of Moldova’s heat pumps in 2023, down from 42% in the previous year. 

Compared to other European countries, the value of Moldova’s heat pump imports is low: Romania imported heat pumps valued at USD 48 million in 2023, Bulgaria at USD 18 million and Hungary at USD 56 million. Europe’s established markets also import vastly more heat pumps per capita than Moldova, as well as meeting much of their demand with local production.

Notable barriers exist to heat pump adoption in Moldova. Many of these are common to other countries, even those with established heat pump markets and higher levels of consumer awareness of the technology. Nevertheless, overcoming these barriers will be critical for expanding heat pump adoption in Moldova.

• Upfront cost of technology and installation. Heat pump technology is expensive compared to existing heating technologies such as biomass stoves and natural gas boilers. A lack of industry experience and scale means that installations also are costly.
• Low energy efficiency performance of buildings. Moldova’s existing building stock suffers from low performance. This could lead to poor heat pump performance, high costs and significant strain on the already-weak electric grid.
• Reliance on biomass. Especially in rural areas, Moldovans rely heavily on biomass systems for heating. Biomass is low-cost, domestically sourced and thus considered more reliable than fossil fuels. However, the use of biomass causes ecological problems and degrades local air quality, with harmful effects on public health. Moreover, the country’s land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector has become a net emitter of greenhouse gases since 2021, further undermining the case for expanding biomass-based heating. Yet for better or for worse, biomass also continues to play a role in helping Moldova meet its renewable energy targets.
• Lack of public information and consumer demand. Public awareness of heat pumps is low, while many citizens are reluctant to abandon traditional heating systems or are concerned about maintenance costs. This results in weak consumer demand, which in turn discourages industry investment in manufacturing and the training of technicians.
• High levels of energy poverty. Energy poverty is a major concern of the government. A divide persists between rural areas, which rely heavily on biomass, and urban centres, where district heating is more common. This highlights the need for energy policy that considers the energy poverty dimension.
• Weak electricity infrastructure. Moldova’s transmission and distribution systems are overdue for an upgrade. Adding an additional electrical load will make this investment more pressing. Relying on an electrical source of heating without an established grid infrastructure could pose significant risks.
• Lack of trained engineers for installation and for maintenance. A shortage of a trained technicians drives up installation costs and adds to the hassle factor for consumers, particularly when technical issues arise and qualified technicians are unavailable.

The following chapters will examine potential solutions to these barriers. In many cases, addressing one barrier – such as low energy performance of buildings – can ease pressure on others, including a strained electricity infrastructure. By addressing these vulnerabilities early, Moldova has an opportunity to scale up its heat pump market sustainably while supporting its citizens through the transition.