• The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is an exploratory scenario, designed to reflect the prevailing direction of travel for the energy system based on a detailed reading of country-specific energy, climate and related industrial policies that have been adopted or put forward, even if not yet codified in law. It reflects the state of technology and market conditions but does not include aspirational goals. 

• Total final consumption grows 1% annually to 2035 in the STEPS, with India and other emerging market and developing economies leading demand growth. It increases more slowly than in the past decade as efficiency gains accelerate to 2.2% per year, driven by the increasing electrification of end-uses. 

• Oil demand peaks at 102 million barrels per day (mb/d) around 2030 before gradually declining. Global electric car sales share rises from over 20% today to over 50% by 2035, despite lower electric vehicle (EV) sales in the United States in this Outlook. In 2035, over 840 million EVs displace 10 mb/d of oil, mainly in Asia and Europe. Oil use for petrochemicals and aviation continues to increase to 2035 and 2050. Natural gas demand increases nearly 1% annually to 2035, supported by abundant supply and major liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansions in the United States and Qatar, then levels off. Coal demand peaks before 2030 as declines in China outweigh increases in India and Southeast Asia. 

• From the 2030s, renewables in aggregate meet all additional global energy demand as they provide increasing amounts of generation in a rapidly expanding power sector. The renewables share in electricity generation rises from one-third today to over half by 2035 and two-thirds by 2050, led by solar and wind power with support from batteries. Grid upgrades and dispatchable sources are critical to maintain security. Nuclear output grows 40% to 2035, maintaining a 9% share of electricity generation. 

• The world moves firmly into the Age of Electricity in the STEPS, with electricity use rising four-times faster than overall energy demand to 2035. In advanced economies, EVs and data centres push up electricity demand. In emerging market and developing economies, rising incomes boost demand for appliances and air conditioners. 

• Dynamism in the electricity sector is not matched by the rise of low-emissions fuels: liquid biofuels and biogases do well in some markets, but new fuels generally struggle to gain market share and remain heavily dependent on policy support to compete. 

• Energy-sector CO2 emissions peak near term at just over 38 gigatonne (Gt), falling to 35 Gt by the mid-2030s and below 30 Gt by 2050 – a level last seen in 2005 – driven mainly by reduced coal use in China’s power sector. Emissions from end-use sectors flatten but do not decline significantly. Europe sees one of the largest percentage drops. By 2100, the global temperature is projected to rise by 2.5 °C. 

Where the energy system reaches new highs and where it falls away.