Senegal Energy Outlook

Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.

 

Stated Policies

Africa Case

CAAGR 2018-40

 

2000

2018

2030

2040

2030

2040

STEPS

AC

GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)

27

60

154

237

176

370

6.5%

8.7%

Population (million)

10

16

22

28

22

28

2.5%

2.5%

  • with electricity access
  • 31%

    69%

    100%

    100%

    100%

    100%

    1.7%

    1.7%

  • with access to clean cooking
  • 32%

    30%

    47%

    52%

    100%

    100%

    2.6%

    5.7%

    CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

    4

    9

    19

    30

    19

    32

    5.7%

    5.9%


    Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case

     

    Policy Key targets and measures

     

    Performance targets

    • Start producing 100 000 barrels of oil per day from 2022.
    • Achieve 200 GWh hydropower production in electricity generation output.
    • Reach universal access to electricity by 2025, with 95% of rural connections provided by the grid.

    Industrial development targets

    • The overall goal of Le Plan Sénégal Emergent 2023 is to achieve, through structural transformation of the economy, strong, inclusive and sustainable growth for the well-being of the people and reach middle-income status by 2035.

    Senegal primary energy demand and GDP in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

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    Senegal primary energy demand and GDP in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

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    Senegal’s economy could grow six-times larger in the AC while limiting growth in energy demand to three-times its current level by utilising new gas resources and boosting the use of renewables in power.

    In the AC, gas meets a growing share of energy demand while traditional use of biomass starts to decline in rural areas.

    Senegal electricity generation by technology in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

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    Senegal electricity generation by technology in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

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    Electricity demand increases sharply in both scenarios, while the power mix changes, with gas playing an increasingly important role and investments in wind and other renewables bringing more diversification.

    Plans to phase out heavy fuel oil in the AC hinge on successful implementation of new gas-to-power plans.

    Electricity final energy consumption in Senegal by scenario, 2018-2040

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    Fossil fuel final energy consumption in Senegal by scenario, 2018-2040

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    Senegal’s stock of two/three-wheelers is set to grow strongly in both scenarios and its electrification would help to free oil for other productive uses.

    In the AC, cement production could more than double to 2040, although the availability of fuels, including domestic gas, will be critical for this and for wider future industrial development.

    Senegal electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

    Thanks to successful access policies, almost 70% of the population is connected today; with adoption of a comprehensive integrated plan full access is achieved by 2025.

    The grid represents the least-cost option for the majority of the population currently without electricity access today, with decentralised solutions reaching the most remote populations.

    Senegal fuels and technologies used for cooking by scenario, 2018-2030

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    LPG is used for cooking by almost 30% of the population today, one of the highest shares in sub-Saharan Africa. It is expected to remain the main clean cooking fuel in 2030.

    In the AC, LPG is the least-cost option in both rural and urban areas for more than 70% of the population currently still lacking access.


    Senegal gas demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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    Senegal coal demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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    Senegal oil demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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    Senegal is not a fossil fuel producer today, but major gas discoveries are expected to change the picture and to lead to gas production of 9.5 bcm in 2040 in the STEPS.

    The greater availability of gas helps displace oil use in power generation in domestic markets while also bringing considerable export revenues.

    Senegal cumulative investment needs, 2019-2040

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    Energy investment needs amount to $33 billion through to 2040 in the STEPS, mainly to unlock the potential for gas, expand power networks and increase electricity access.

    The AC sees this level of investment increase by a third, with more emphasis on gas and renewable generation.


    Implementing a robust and transparent framework for resource management and design of local content rules would help Senegal to make the most of its natural resources.

    The development of natural gas strategies that cover the entire value chain, including end-uses (gas-to-power or gas-to-industry), would help Senegal to maximise the benefits of its natural gas.

    Senegal’s power sector would be strengthened by continued diversified investment in power, including renewables and natural gas, while phasing out heavy fuel oil.