Trucks and Buses

Countries and regions making notable progress in decarbonising trucks and buses include the following: 

• China continues to lead on deployment of electric buses and trucks, with more than 60% of global electric bus sales and over 70% of global electric truck sales in 2023. 
• In May 2024, the European Union adopted ambitious CO₂ standards for most new trucks and coaches (90% emissions reduction by 2040) and urban buses (100% zero-emission sales by 2035).
• In March 2024, the United States released the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy, which sets out a phased approach to establishing charging and refuelling infrastructure for zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. The same month the US Environmental Protection Agency finalised new GHG emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles.
• Cities across Latin America, such as Bogota and Santiago, had deployed nearly 6 500 electric buses in aggregate at the end of 2023.
  

In 2022, emissions from trucks rebounded to around their pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. Current trends suggest that bus and truck emissions will exceed historic highs in 2023, and that emissions will then continue to increase in the coming years, unless ambitious policy change is introduced.  

Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), will be needed to enable the 15% reduction in emissions needed by 2030 to put the sector on a trajectory compatible with the NZE Scenario. To achieve this, more countries will need to adopt, strengthen and harmonise HDV fuel economy standards. 

The share of energy from biofuels in the road sector increases from less than 5% today to 10% by 2030 in the NZE Scenario. Yet even as biofuels continue to penetrate the gasoline and diesel fuel pools, zero-emission buses and trucks will need to be rapidly deployed, as further increasing the share of biofuels sustainably will become difficult. Urban electric transit buses, in particular, are already technically viable and cost-competitive in many contexts, largely due to the efficiency advantages of electrified powertrains over traditional internal combustion engines (ICE), meaning they also reduce overall energy consumption.  

Where practical, logistical improvements and modal shift to rail or ship can help reduce overall energy demand, but fuel shifts – and above all, a focus on direct electrification – are still needed to meet remaining energy demand. In the NZE Scenario, electricity, which currently accounts for less than 0.5% of sectoral energy, and hydrogen (which today has a negligible share), increase to around 6% and over 1% of sectoral energy respectively, by the end of this decade. 

Globally, almost 50 000 electric buses were sold in 2023, equating to 3% of total bus sales and bringing the global stock to approximately 635 000 in total. Several European countries (such as Belgium, Norway and Switzerland) and China achieved sales shares above 50% in 2023, and more than one-fifth of bus sales were electric in Canada, Chile, Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Sweden. Cities across Latin America, such as Bogota and Santiago, have deployed nearly 6 500 electric buses to date.

Sales of electric trucks increased 35% in 2023 compared to 2022, meaning that total sales of electric trucks surpassed electric buses for the first time, at around 54 000. China is the leading market for electric trucks, accounting for 70% of global sales in 2023, down from 85% in 2022. In Europe, electric truck sales increased almost threefold in 2023 to reach more than 10 000 (>1.5% sales share). The United States also saw a threefold increase, though electric truck sales reached just 1 200, less than 0.1% of total truck sales.

The sales share of ICE powertrains in the HDV sector falls from almost 98% in 2022 to just over 50% by 2030 in the NZE Scenario. The remainder is made up of battery electric (32%), plug-in hybrid (7%), hybrid (4%), and fuel cell electric (3%) vehicles. At a fleet level, zero-emission buses comprise almost 25% of the total stock and zero-emission trucks more than 10% in 2030.

To date, buses have been the most amenable category of HDV to electrification; however, as manufacturers scale up production and battery technology improves in terms of cost, energy density and durability, the availability of electric truck models is also increasing. CALSTART, a United States-based non-profit think-tank focusing on transport policy and technology, provides details on current and announced models through their Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool.

The market is particularly dynamic in China, where zero-emission truck and bus manufacturers are developing and commercialising new models to satisfy domestic and international demand.

Progress is being made globally on developing standards for megawatt-scale chargers, with the aim of achieving maximum interoperability for electric HDVs. In 2023, the European Union and United States produced a set of recommendations for charging infrastructure, including the harmonisation of standards between the two regions. In essence, this provided recognition of the adoption of the megawatt charging system (MCS) – which allows charging capacity up to 3.75 MW – by international standardisation organisations such as SAE International and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

In order to decarbonise trucks via electrification, extensive upgrades to the associated grid infrastructure will also be needed, as well as additional renewable electricity supply. Co-ordinated and sustained investment is needed so that the potentially high costs and long lead times do not hamper progress.

Alternatives to fast charging, such as battery swapping and electric road systems, can already compete favourably in terms of capital and operating costs. China, where as many as half of electric heavy-duty trucks sold in 2023 were enabled with battery swapping technology, leads the way in battery swapping. Electric road systems have significantly progressed in countries including Sweden, France, Germany, Italy, Israel and the United States. In 2023, Sweden became the first country in the world to commit to turning a highway into a permanently electrified road.

Over 70% of HDVs sold in 2022 were covered by fuel economy or vehicle efficiency regulations, up from 60% in 2017, but down from a peak of 80% in 2020 as a result of sales increasing in countries with no such policies.  

In the European Union, an emissions trading scheme for transport, revised CO₂ standards for HDVs and the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation will aid heavy-duty ZEV deployment. In particular, the new CO₂ standards require a 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2040 compared to 2019 and 100% zero-emission urban bus sales from 2035.

In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency finalised GHG standards for HDVs for model years 2028-2032, which aims to reduce emissions from trucks and heavy buses by 25-60% in 2032 compared to 2026. At a state level the Advanced Clean Fleets and Advanced Clean Trucks programmes further promote ZEVs.

Though many countries are setting ambitious targets, advanced economies could follow the lead of the European Union, United States, and China, and introduce combinations of regulation and incentives to tackle HDV CO₂ emissions. Recent reports by CALSTART and the ICCT provide further details on ZEV policies in the HDV sector.

Collaboration across leading markets on heavy-duty ZEV infrastructure is critical for encouraging these vehicles’ innovation, accelerating their production and facilitating their adoption. It is also essential for establishing the interoperability of electric vehicle chargers.

As of mid-2024, 36 countries – accounting for just over 25% of HDV sales – have endorsed the Global Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles. Six countries signed the MoU in 2023 with a further three signing in the first quarter of 2024. Its ambition is for 30% of new truck and bus sales to be ZEVs by 2030 and 100% by 2040, adding to the push for ZEV deployment in the HDV sector.

Launched in 2022, EV100+ signatories have committed to only procure ZEVs by 2030 and then fully transition their fleet of vehicles over 7.5 t to zero-emission by 2040; founding members include IKEA and Unilever. The Fleet Electrification Coalition is using the power of demand aggregation to reduce the costs and barriers to widespread adoption of electric trucks, including vehicle purchase and infrastructure rollout. Similarly, the First Movers Coalition is committed to sustainable purchasing, driving adoption of ZEVs in transport. Finally, the European Clean Trucking Alliance push for stronger sustainable trucking policy.

Elsewhere, manufacturers, fleet operators, infrastructure providers, and others have signed CALSTART’s Drive to Zero pledge. This pledge commits to enabling and accelerating the growth of ZEVs with the “vision that zero-emission technology will be commercially viable by 2025 and dominate by 2040 in specific vehicle segments.” Truck and bus manufacturers are also recognising the need to kickstart investment in charging infrastructure, with one recent example being Milence, the independent joint venture established by Traton, Volvo, and Daimler in 2022, which aims to deploy more than 1 700 fast (300 to 350 kW) and ultra-fast (1 MW) charging points across Europe.

Of the largest HDV OEMs, 21 have made commitments to ZEVs and carbon reductions, ranging from a 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions in driving operation by 2050, to 90% ZEV sales by 2040, and including five commitments to be free of fossil fuels by 2040. Many of these commitments focus on electrification.