Kenya Energy Outlook

Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.

 

Stated Policies

Africa Case

CAAGR 2018-40

 

2000

2018

2030

2040

2030

2040

STEPS

AC

GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)

76

177

358

627

453

1 176

5.9%

9.0%

Population (million)

31

51

66

79

66

79

2.0%

2.0%

  • with electricity access
  • 8%

    75%

    100%

    100%

    100%

    100%

    1.3%

    1.3%

  • with access to clean cooking
  • 3%

    15%

    46%

    70%

    100%

    100%

    7.2%

    9.0%

    CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)

    8

    16

    27

    40

    33

    60

    4.3%

    6.2%


    Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case

     

    Policy Key targets and measures

     

    Performance targets

    • National Electrification Strategy: achieve universal electricity service to all households and businesses by 2022 at acceptable quality of service levels.
    • Produce 100 000 barrels of oil per day from 2022 and develop 2 275 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030.

     

    Industrial development targets

    • Increase the contribution of the manufacturing sector share of GDP to 15% by 2022.
    • Develop domestic iron and steel industries by 2030.
    • Achieve middle-income status by 2030.

    Kenya primary energy demand and GDP in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya primary energy demand and GDP in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    In the AC, Kenya could supply an economy six-and half times larger than today using little more than twice its current energy consumption, if it were to move away from bioenergy and improve energy efficiency.

    Two-thirds of Kenya’s energy currently comes from bioenergy. This share shrinks to 15% by 2040 in the AC thanks to increased use of geothermal resources and oil.

    Kenya electricity generation by technology in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya electricity generation by technology in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya is one of the few countries to develop geothermal energy: by 2040, it accounts for almost 50% of Kenya’s power generation in the STEPS.

    The sevenfold increase in electricity demand in the AC relies on expansion of geothermal production (an increase to 4 GW) and new solar PV and gas capacity.

    Electricity final energy consumption in Kenya by scenario, 2018-2040

    Openexpand

    Fossil fuel final energy consumption in Kenya by scenario, 2018-2040

    Openexpand

    Oil remains by far the dominant fuel in end-use sectors, and its use triples in road transport in the AC, with five million additional vehicles being added to the fleet.

    Electricity demand reaches nearly 70 TWh in the AC, as light industry grows and as ownership of household appliances and cooling systems increases; efficiency standards avoid a further 8 TWh of demand.

    Senegal electricity access solutions by type in the Africa Case

    Kenya has seen one of the fastest increases in electrification rates within sub-Saharan Africa since 2013: by 2018, 75% of the population had access.

    Kenya aims to reach full access by 2022; the grid would be the principal least-cost solution for the majority of the population (mainly in the south) still lacking access.

    Kenya fuels and technologies used for cooking by scenario, 2018-2030

    Openexpand

    Today three-stone fires are still used for most cooking, fuelled mostly by charcoal in urban areas and by wood in rural areas. In the STEPS, government initiatives lead to 26% of the population having access to clean cooking by 2030.

    In the AC, everybody gains access to clean cooking by 2030. Most of the 25 million people otherwise without access in rural areas gain access primarily through improved and advanced cookstoves; LPG is the least-cost fuel for most of the urban population.


    Kenya oil demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya gas demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya coal demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

    Openexpand

    Kenya is not a notable oil and gas producer today, but it takes some steps to develop its relatively modest resources.

    Higher economic growth underpins strong growth in fossil fuel demand in the AC. Oil demand almost triples as it expands its share of the overall energy mix.


    Kenya cumulative investment needs, 2019-2040

    Openexpand

    Energy investment amounts to around $60 billion through to 2040 in the STEPS, with renewables and electricity networks accounting for half of this.

    Investments in renewables and electricity networks need to double in the AC.


    Kenya is on the cusp of reaching universal access to electricity. Concerted government policy could help reach this aim through grid and stand-alone connections in roughly equal measure.

    Kenya has made notable progress in deploying renewables in large part because it has successfully attracted the necessary private investment for renewables projects. Further development of these resources would help it meet demand growth.