Nigeria Energy Outlook

Analysis from Africa Energy Outlook 2019

Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand.

Stated Policies

Africa Case

CAAGR 2018-40

2000

2018

2030

2040

2030

2040

STEPS

AC

 GDP ($2018 billion, PPP)  392  1169  1636  2420  2258  3678 3.4% 5.3%
 Population (million)  122  196  263  329  263  329 2.4% 2.4%
• with electricity access 40% 60% 80% 85% 100% 100% 1.6% 2.3%
• with access to clean cooking 1% 10% 28% 38% 100% 100% 6.4% 11.2%
 CO2 emissions (Mt CO2)  37  83  134  191  181  257 3.8% 5.3%

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario and AC = Africa Case

 

Policy Key targets and measures
Performance targets
  • 20% (unconditional) to 45% (conditional) reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
  • Increase oil production to 2.5 mb/d and become a net exporter by 2020, and end gas flaring by 2030.
Industrial development targets
  • Dedicate at least 30% of the federal budget to capital expenditure.
  • Achieve GDP growth of 7% and create over 15 million jobs by 2020 and double manufacturing output to 20% of GDP by 2025.

Nigeria primary energy demand and GDP in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

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Nigeria primary energy demand and GDP in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

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Nigeria remains Africa’s largest economy: in the AC, supplying an economy three-times larger than today would require less energy demand if the energy mix were to be diversified.

In the AC, gas meets a growing share of energy demand, supported by the implementation of the government’s gas masterplan.


Nigeria electricity generation by technology in the Africa Case, 2010-2040

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Nigeria electricity generation by technology in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2010-2040

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Today, 80% of power generation comes from gas; most of the remainder comes from oil, with Nigeria the largest user of oil-fired back-up generators on the continent.

Natural gas remains the main source of power in the AC, although there is a shift towards solar PV as the country starts to exploit its large solar potential.

Electricity final energy consumption in Nigeria by scenario, 2018-2040

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Fossil fuel final energy consumption in Nigeria, 2018-2040 by scenario

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Nigeria is a major industrial producer and large chemical exporter. In the AC, it triples chemicals production by 2040 with new gas-based methanol and ammonia plants.

Nigeria has the second-largest vehicle stock in sub-Saharan Africa: the number of vehicles could grow from 14 to 37 million in the AC by 2040 with only two-times more oil consumption if more stringent fuel economy standards were introduced.

Weo2019 Nigeria

Provided that reliability and supply improve, the grid could become the optimal solution to provide almost 60% of people with access to electricity in each scenario.

In the AC, Nigeria achieves universal access by stepping up efforts to provide off-grid solutions to those populations that live far from a grid.

Nigeria fuels and technologies used for cooking by scenario, 2018-2030

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In the STEPS, there is progress on access to clean cooking services but almost three-quarters of the population still lack access in 2030.

In the AC, universal access is achieved through greater household access to gas networks and LPG in the main cities, and to improved cookstoves in rural areas.


Nigeria gas demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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Nigeria oil demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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Nigeria coal demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040

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Delayed reforms and growing competition in international oil markets means that it takes time for oil production to revive.

In both scenarios, gas demand grows strongly in the industry and power sectors, leading to action to increase production and reduce gas flaring.

Nigeria cumulative investment needs, 2019-2040

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Cumulative energy supply investment of $445 billion is needed in the STEPS, almost 80% of which goes to upstream oil and gas.

The AC requires a significant ramp up in power sector investment. Spending on electricity networks and renewables increases by 85% and 165% respectively, compared to STEPS.


Oil sector reforms would help to revive oil production while successful implementation of the gas masterplan would foster gas-to-power, industrial development and expansion of the gas network to industrial hubs.

Improved power sector management and governance would help to reduce outages and transmission losses. Failure to do so would impede industrial growth and would mean continued high levels of use of polluting back-up generation.

Reducing bioenergy use across all sectors would bring a number of benefits, not least because its use is strongly linked to deforestation and air pollution.