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Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 Executive summary
…but increasingly with the rising use of electricity. However, the medium-term growth prospects remain bright: their market value grows significantly in both the CPS and the STEPS, from around USD 215 billion in 2025 to about USD 390 billion in 2035, equivalent to about 20% of the combined market for diesel and gasoline used in transport. Around 60% of this growth comes from the expansion of relatively mature biofuels such as biomethane, bioethanol and biodiesel. Increased use of fuels that are more costly and still at low levels of market penetration, such as sustainable aviation fuels and other hydrogen…
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Sheltering From Oil Shocks Introduction and context
…with both producers and consumers feeling the strain. Oil prices have risen sharply since the conflict began. While Brent has drawn most attention, benchmarks for Middle Eastern crudes and refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, have increased even more. Many consumers around the world are still bruised from past price increases during the global energy crisis of 2021-2023, which pushed energy affordability to the forefront of energy policy priorities. A succession of turbulent years for the global economy and the energy sector has also depleted the fiscal means for governments to respond to a new crisis.The resumption…
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Sheltering From Oil Shocks Road transport fuels
…commute distance, car occupancy and average fuel consumption of the car. In most countries the impact is felt mainly on gasoline demand; however, in countries and regions such as Korea, India, and Europe, diesel use is also affected. The effects of working from home also vary by season, largely because of how air conditioning is used in cars. As a result, remote work helps conserve more oil during the warmer months.Impact: Commuting accounts for between 5% and 30% of car activity across regions. As not all jobs are suitable for working from home, at the national level, three additional…
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Global EV Outlook 2026 Trends in other EV modes
…electric, as momentum continued to build thanks to operational cost advantages as well as declining battery costs. As highlighted in the Global EV Outlook 2025, battery electric HFTs in China have already reached total cost of ownership (TCO) parity with diesel trucks in certain cases after 5 years of ownership. Strong policy measures from the government further incentivised growth: the renewed scrappage scheme offered owners up to around USD 20 000 to replace older trucks (i.e. trucks compliant with China IV emissions standards or earlier pollutant emissions standards) with cleaner trucks – either new energy vehicles or conventional trucks that meet China VI emissions standards…
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Global Energy Review 2025 Natural gas
…regulations and market dynamics. In the Middle East, oil-to-gas switching in the power sector continued in 2024. In road transport, the rapid scaling up of natural gas-powered trucks in China – with record sales in 2024 – contributed to lower diesel demand there. The use of LNG as a bunkering fuel is also expected to increase amid more stringent emissions regulations for shipping. Gas demand grew across regions Natural gas demand in emerging market and developing economies in Asia expanded by around 6% in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of incremental global gas demand. This strong increase was primarily…
- Key findings
- Global trends
- Oil
- Natural gas
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand
…5 mb/d by 2030 Expanding EV adoption continues to reduce oil demand, with oil displacement growing by 30% to over 1.3 mb/d in 2024 – equivalent to Japan’s entire transport sector oil demand today. By the end of the decade, EVs are set to displace over 5 mb/d of diesel and gasoline in the STEPS, and China’s EVs to account for half of displaced oil.Electric LDVs drive most of the oil displacement, accounting for 80% today and around 77% by 2030. The relative impact of LDVs becomes smaller over time as technology developments and…
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Global Hydrogen Review 2025 Demand
…investment decision (FID), more than 2 Mtpa is expected to be consumed in refineries and industrial facilities by 2030. This could be complemented by additional supply provided by merchant projects.In road transport, heavy trucks remain the only fast-growing market for fuel cell electric vehicles, despite their higher total costs of ownership when compared to battery electric or diesel trucks. China remains the leader, with almost 95% of the world’s fuel cell commercial vehicles stock.In shipping, the fleet of ships able to use hydrogen-based fuels is growing and offtake agreement activity has increased, but concerns about supply…
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Sustainable Transport Policy for Armenia: A Roadmap Sustainable transport in Armenia
…transport sector Energy demand growth in Armenia’s transport sector is driven by increasing road activity, which is fuelled predominantly by natural gas. In 2023, natural gas accounted for half of Armenia’s total energy demand, followed by petrol (20%), diesel (14%) and liquid petroleum gas (13%). Natural gas is the dominant fuel in Armenia’s road transport sector, powering more than 70% of vehicles nationwide – and an even greater share in Yerevan. Most run on compressed natural gas (CNG), though some are designed to run on liquified natural gas (LNG). There are about 380 CNG filling stations across Armenia…
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Red Diesel Replacement competition - Phase 2
Phase 2 of the Red Diesel Replacement (RDR) competition funds projects to demonstrate an end-to-end low-carbon solution to replace red diesel-using technologies on construction and mining or quarrying sites. This is designed to accelerate deployment of such technologies across UK industry, contributing to achieving net zero by 2050. The public capital mobilised is roughly half of the public funding
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Red Diesel Replacement Programme
The Red Diesel Replacement (RDR) programme funded by the UK government provides innovation funding for the development and demonstration of low carbon fuel and system alternatives to red diesel for the construction, and mining and quarrying sectors to support the decarbonisation of these sectors, which have the entitlement to use red diesel and rebated fuels revoked as of April 2022.The RDR is part of the GBP 1 billion Net Zero Innovation portfolio and provides grants in 2 phases. Phase 1 rolled out in 2021 provided funding for the development of component technologies for distribution, storage and energy delivery systems…