Cite report
IEA (2026), Energy Technology Perspectives 2026, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2026, Licence: CC BY 4.0
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Energy technology manufacturing and trade
Recent trends
Global investment in manufacturing capacity for six clean energy technologies – solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), electrolysers and heat pumps – dropped below USD 200 billion in 2024, down from nearly USD 220 billion in 2023. This downwards trend is estimated to have continued in 2025, mainly due to weaker solar PV and wind manufacturing investment in China. The United States and the European Union are estimated to have accounted for around 30% of global manufacturing investment combined in 2025, up from 15% in 2023, marginally increasing global supply chain diversification.
Global market size for selected clean energy technology manufacturing by country/region, 2020-2025
OpenAfter dipping in 2024, global trade in clean energy technologies recovered in 2025, with gross imports for relevant product categories reaching an all-time high in the second quarter. This is despite prices for several technologies falling; solar PV module prices have fallen around 50% since 2023 with those for battery packs falling by 30%. China maintains an out-sized role in international trade in clean energy technologies, with its gross exports exceeding USD 165 billion in 2025 (50% of the global total excluding intra-EU trade). This is equivalent to around 15% of its trade surplus across all goods, which was approaching USD 1.2 trillion in 2025.
Higher tariffs and duties on clean energy technologies in the United States have contributed to significant increases in domestic production as a share of demand: 40 and 25 percentage points during 2023-2025 for solar PV modules and battery cells respectively. Production tax credits still in place in 2025 and shifting trade patterns offset around half of the estimated increase in average costs across imports and domestic production. In other major importing regions, average costs of batteries are estimated to have fallen due to lower global commodity prices.
The manufacturing project pipeline has contracted across most clean energy technologies since 2024. The capacity of announced projects that have been completed or cancelled since the last review exceeds that of newly announced projects. This reflects well-supplied markets for several clean energy technologies, notably for solar PV and batteries, and uncertainty about the pace of future deployment.
Global manufacturing project pipelines for selected clean energy technologies by edition of Energy Technology Perspectives, 2030
OpenIndustry margins have tightened across the board. Solar PV manufacturers have seen margins collapse under intense price competition, notably in China, with the top ten firms posting USD 4.5 billion in losses in 2024. Western wind producers, which incurred losses in 2022-23, are beginning to recover, while profits at Chinese wind firms are being squeezed by falling prices. Chinese battery makers remain profitable on average thanks to a small number of high performers, but those outside China are struggling to maintain positive margins.
Profit margins of companies producing battery technologies by country of company headquarters, 2015-2025
OpenOutlook
Due to a large overhang of manufacturing capacity for several clean energy technologies – notably solar PV and batteries – the investment in manufacturing capacity needed to keep pace with global demand in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) over the next decade is just 40% of the historic peak in 2023. Despite recent increases in tariffs and duties in some countries, trade remains central to meeting rising demand, with the value of global net trade over the next decade rising to more than double that of 2024.
China’s net exports of clean energy technologies more than double to 2035 in the STEPS, at which point they approach the projected value of total crude oil export revenues from all OPEC members in 2026. Despite this, several countries reduce their dependence on Chinese imports in relative terms at certain steps in the value chain – particularly downstream. EU net imports of battery cells from China drop from around half of domestic demand levels in 2025 to around a quarter by 2035. Dependency on Chinese cathode imports jumps from around 15% to 45% over the same period; for anodes it remains at today’s elevated levels of around 75%.
China remains by far the largest producer of solar PV modules and components in the STEPS, though its market share declines somewhat. It supplies over 70% of projected global module demand in 2030 (compared with 80% in 2024) and more than 80% of upstream wafer and polysilicon (90% in 2024). India sees the biggest increase in global market share, rising from 4% in 2024 to 10% in 2030 and 12% in 2035, and becomes a net exporter by 2030. The policies in place in the United States lead to near-self-sufficiency for modules by 2030.
Net trade in clean energy technologies and fossil fuels and in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024 and 2035
OpenSeveral emerging economies are playing a growing role in the global wind supply chain. Nacelle and blade exports account for about 20% of India’s production in 2035, mainly serving Asia Pacific and European markets. Brazil is projected to export 10% of its nacelle production and 30% of blade production to other Latin American countries. North Africa, particularly Morocco, is emerging as a blade manufacturing hub, supplying around 5% of EU wind imports by 2035.
The share of domestic electric vehicle (EV) demand met by imports in the European Union remains below one-third in the STEPS, with China supplying around 70% of these imports in 2035, up from 60% in 2024, despite countervailing duties (or equivalent measures) being maintained. The North American car market remains virtually closed to Chinese imports due to even higher tariff and duty rates. The US project pipeline for battery cell manufacturing is sufficient to supply local demand through to 2030 in view of weaker projected demand.