Deployment of clean energy technologies, materials and fuels

Outlook

Many clean energy technologies are increasingly cost-competitive and growing strongly. Their aggregate market value has grown 20% on average per year since 2015 to reach nearly USD 1.2 trillion. Some 80% of global solar PV and wind generation now occurs at lower levelised costs than for coal or gas. Battery prices have dropped 75% since 2015, pushing electric car sales to around 25% share in 2025. Deployment increases in all IEA scenarios: in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), their global market value nearly doubles to around USD 2 trillion in 2035, greater than the oil market in 2025. In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), their market value approaches USD 3 trillion, and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario), more than USD 5 trillion.

Global and regional market of selected clean energy technologies by scenario, 2015-2025 and 2035

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Global and regional market of selected clean energy technologies by region and scenario, 2015-2025 and 2035

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The market for near-zero emissions materials remains almost non-existent, due to the limited availability of cost-competitive technologies at scale, insufficient policy support and low consumer willingness to absorb cost premiums. Yet momentum is building: 105 Mt of near-zero emissions steel production capacity has been announced since 2020 (equal to around 5% of global production today), roughly double the conventional capacity additions, though only 5% has taken final investment decision (FID). A strong policy push is needed for a large market for near-zero emissions materials: in the NZE Scenario, it reaches USD 500 billion in 2035, far higher than in the STEPS (USD 20 billion) and CPS (USD 5 billion).

Near-zero emissions steel announced and committed demand by region, 2020-2025

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Near-zero emissions steel announced capacity production by region, 2020-2025

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The market for low-emissions fuels grew by an average of 7% annually in the past decade, reaching around USD 215 billion in 2025, but remains small, equal to less than 10% of the market for oil-based transport fuels in 2025. Growth opportunities exist: the market value for low-emissions fuels increases significantly in the STEPS and the CPS to around USD 390 billion in 2035. Higher deployment requires stronger policy support to overcome cost premiums; the market for low-emissions fuels grows fivefold by 2035 in the NZE Scenario.

Low-emissions fuels market size by fuel, region and scenario, 2015, 2025 and 2035

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Low-emissions fuels market size by region and scenario, 2015, 2025 and 2035

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The deployment outlook hinges on manufacturing and enabling infrastructure. Investment in production assets for clean energy technologies, near-zero emissions materials and low-emissions fuels is around USD 245 billion today, about three times more than 5 years ago. Investments in infrastructure, primarily electricity grids, total around USD 430 billion, about 40% more than in 2020. While average annual investment in production assets in 2031-35 falls by 60% in the STEPS compared to today, average annual investment in grids is about 60% higher.

Average annual investments in production assets by technology category, 2020 and 2025, and in the Stated Policies Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, 2031-2035

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Average annual investments in enabling infrastructure by technology category, 2020 and 2025, and in the Stated Policies Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, 2031-2035

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