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Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity: A Roadmap
Ukraine’s energy sector has been severely affected by the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion. The power sector went from having a large capacity surplus before the war to a power deficit in 2024 due to Russia’s attacks. This has focused attention on energy security and restoring the reliability of supply. Hydrogen demand from conventional applications in refining and ammonia has also plunged, falling 80%, with most of these assets in southern Ukraine, where the frontline and occupied areas are located. Overall economic damage from the war has been extensive, with reconstruction costs previously estimated by the World…
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Ukraine’s Energy Security
…importance. While Ukraine made strong strides in rebuilding and strengthening the resilience of its energy system this past spring and summer, the situation remains fragile, and the risk of huge disruptions and widespread destabilisation remains – particularly as Russia expands the scope and sophistication of its attacks.This analysis builds on the IEA’s September 2024 report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter. It provides an update on the latest developments through October 2025 and proposes key actions that Ukraine and its partners can take to address urgent energy security vulnerabilities this winter and bolster longer-term energy resilience…
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Policy options to accelerate distributed solar PV in Ukraine
Accelerating distributed solar PV and battery energy storage deployment will support Ukraine in establishing energy security.In the year following the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, available dispatchable power generation capacity halved from roughly 38 GW to 19 GW. After severe attacks in spring 2024, capacity declined further, down to 12 GW. Towards the end of 2024 Ukraine was able to restore 3 GW and has worked to restore and add additional capacity throughout 2025, despite ongoing attacks.Distributed solar PV has played a key role, providing cost effective and rapid increases in electricity generation capacity, contributing…
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Gas Market Report, Q2-2025
…America. Underground storage facilities and reserve mechanisms provided crucial flexibility to the gas system and ensured stable and secure gas supplies over the 2024/25 heating season. In 2025, global gas demand growth is forecast to slow from the previous year amid tighter market conditions, while heightened macroeconomic uncertainties may also weigh on demand.Low gas storage levels and reduced piped gas exports from Russia to the European Union are expected to keep market fundamentals tight. Supported by higher storage injection needs, Europe’s LNG imports are forecast to increase in 2025 to near their all-time highs. In contrast…
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Gas Market Report, Q3-2025
…weighed on natural gas consumption, particularly in price-sensitive markets in Asia. Both China and India recorded demand declines in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to reach an all-time high in 2025, supported by stronger storage injections, higher domestic demand and lower piped gas supplies from Russia. In contrast, China’s LNG imports are forecast to fall amid weaker natural gas demand and strong competition from Europe for flexible LNG cargoes. Geopolitical tensions have continued to fuel price volatility, while adding to the…
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Oil Market Report - August 2025
…crude oil prices were largely unchanged in July, with North Sea Dated oscillating around $70/bbl as easing trade tensions and tighter sanctions against Russia were set against the outlook for a comfortably supplied market. By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3/bbl to $67/bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntary output cuts by September. Beneath the calm Oil prices have been caught in the crosshairs of fast-changing market dynamics. While new sanctions on Russia and Iran threaten to impact trade flows, weaker economic growth is poised to temper demand…
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Oil Market Report - September 2025
…Brent futures falling by about $2/bbl m-o-m to $67/bbl. Geopolitical concerns intensified amid dwindling hopes for a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the prospect of looming oversupply dampened any positive price impetus, as investor sentiment towards oil remained strongly bearish. Pushed and pulled Oil markets are being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances. China continues to stockpile crude oil…
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Oil Market Report - October 2025
…while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date. Stocking up The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the…
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Oil Market Report - November 2025
…5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and…
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Oil Market Report - December 2025
…mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb…
