Oil Market Report - November 2025

• World oil demand growth rebounded to 920 kb/d in 3Q25, mainly due to stronger deliveries in China. The third-quarter increase was more than double 2Q25’s 430 kb/d y-o-y expansion, as the macroeconomic picture broadly improved on easing trade tensions. Worldwide 2025 gains of 790 kb/d y-o-y are led by the United States, China and Nigeria, up by about 120 kb/d y-o-y each. Global growth will maintain this rate in 2026, at 770 kb/d y-o-y.

• The relentless upturn in global oil supply paused in October at 108.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ leading a 440 kb/d monthly decline. Global oil supply was nevertheless up by a massive 6.2 mb/d since January, with gains divided evenly between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+. World oil supply is set to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.

• A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and 510 kb/d next year, to 83.6 mb/d and 84.1 mb/d, respectively.

• Global observed oil inventories surged by 77.7 mb, or 2.6 mb/d, in September reaching the highest level since July 2021. Oil on water was up by a hefty 80 mb, while OECD stocks rose by a modest 5 mb and non-OECD drew by 7 mb. Over the first nine months of the year, observable inventories have risen by 313 mb, or 1.15 mb/d on average. Preliminary October data showed global stocks increased further, led by additional gains in oil on water.

• North Sea Dated crude fell by around $3/bbl m-o-m to $65/bbl in October. This was the grade’s fourth consecutive monthly decline amid concerns about weak fundamentals and looming oversupply. Dated barely held above $60/bbl mid-month – a four-year low – before rebounding by $5/bbl on the view that Washington’s sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil may curtail Russian oil flows. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $62/bbl.

Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards. At the same time, the risks to the forecast remain plentiful, with the economic repercussions of the recent tariff turmoil and the US federal government shutdown still uncertain, and the impacts of new sanctions on Russia yet to become clear. North Sea Dated crude oil prices slumped by $3.26/bbl in October, their fourth consecutive monthly decline, to average $64.64/bbl, and were trading at around $62/bbl at the time of writing.

The relentless rise in global oil supply briefly reversed course in October, falling by 440 kb/d m-o-m to 108.2 mb/d, as a raft of planned field maintenance and unscheduled outages curbed output. Nevertheless, total output was a massive 6.2 mb/d above January, albeit the low point for the year due to seasonal weather related shut-ins. World oil supply is now projected to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025 to an annual average of 106.3 mb/d – and by another 2.5 mb/d in 2026 to 108.7 mb/d. In a shift from the recent past, this year’s increase is almost evenly divided between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers. Saudi Arabia boosted supply by close to 1.5 mb/d from January through October, in line with its higher quota. By contrast, Russian production is up by only 120 kb/d over the same period, with growth stymied by sanctions and a challenging operating environment.

Russia’s oil industry has come under more severe pressure after the United States and the United Kingdom sanctioned the two largest Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce and internationally market about half of the country’s crude. The latest sanctions come into effect on 21 November, but so far Russian exports have continued largely unabated, even as volumes have piled up on water as buyers evaluate compliance risks and possible workarounds.

Indeed, following an 80 mb increase in oil on water in September, preliminary October data indicate a further 92 mb build, mostly of crude. Sanctioned barrels account for around 32% of the 194 mb rise in crude on water over the past two months. Surging long-haul shipments from producers in the Americas to markets East of Suez and the sharp rise in Middle East loadings also add to the flotilla of stocks. By contrast, stocks on land, with the exception of Chinese crude oil and US gas liquids, remain low across key pricing hubs. Middle distillate markets appear particularly tight with limited potential for relief. Depleted product stocks and a spate of unscheduled refinery outages lifted European and Asian refining margins to two-year highs, while US Mid-continent margins doubled in a matter of days following a refinery outage.

Worldwide oil demand growth was revised higher by 170 kb/d in 3Q25 to 920 kb/d y-o-y, largely due to stronger deliveries in China. This contributed to minor upward revisions to our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts, which are still below 800 kb/d for both years. Petrochemical feedstocks remain the bedrock of global gains, but so far this year the sector has significantly underperformed expectations. In 4Q25, global oil consumption growth is expected to ease relative to 3Q25 while crude supply is on course to rebound further, adding to market balances that look increasingly askew.