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Ukraine’s Energy Security
A pre-winter assessment As Ukraine enters its fourth winter of war, ensuring that residents retain reliable access to heat and power is of the utmost importance. While Ukraine made strong strides in rebuilding and strengthening the resilience of its energy system this past spring and summer, the situation remains fragile, and the risk of huge disruptions and widespread destabilisation remains – particularly as Russia expands the scope and sophistication of its attacks.This analysis builds on the IEA’s September 2024 report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter. It provides an update on the latest developments through October…
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Unlocking Ukraine’s Hydrogen Opportunity: A Roadmap
…went from having a large capacity surplus before the war to a power deficit in 2024 due to Russia’s attacks. This has focused attention on energy security and restoring the reliability of supply. Hydrogen demand from conventional applications in refining and ammonia has also plunged, falling 80%, with most of these assets in southern Ukraine, where the frontline and occupied areas are located. Overall economic damage from the war has been extensive, with reconstruction costs previously estimated by the World Bank at more than USD 0.5 trillion – three times Ukraine’s GDP.Reconstruction offers an opportunity to build…
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Policy options to accelerate distributed solar PV in Ukraine
Accelerating distributed solar PV and battery energy storage deployment will support Ukraine in establishing energy security.In the year following the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, available dispatchable power generation capacity halved from roughly 38 GW to 19 GW. After severe attacks in spring 2024, capacity declined further, down to 12 GW. Towards the end of 2024 Ukraine was able to restore 3 GW and has worked to restore and add additional capacity throughout 2025, despite ongoing attacks.Distributed solar PV has played a key role, providing cost effective and rapid increases in electricity generation capacity, contributing…
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Oil Market Report - September 2025
…Brent futures falling by about $2/bbl m-o-m to $67/bbl. Geopolitical concerns intensified amid dwindling hopes for a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. However, the prospect of looming oversupply dampened any positive price impetus, as investor sentiment towards oil remained strongly bearish. Pushed and pulled Oil markets are being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances. China continues to stockpile crude oil…
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Sustainable Transport for Georgia: A Roadmap
The International Energy Agency (IEA) developed this Sustainable Transport Policy for Georgia roadmap under the European Union-funded five-year EU4Energy programme, which supports evidence-based energy policy and data capabilities in Eastern Partnership countries, including Georgia.The roadmap supports sustainable transport planning at national and city levels, summarising legislation, planning documents, and research on passenger and freight transport. Key metrics include accessibility, safety, convenience, equity, energy efficiency, emissions reduction, congestion and service reliability. Policies and targets are proposed to help Georgia meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledges.The government of…
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Oil Market Report - November 2025
…5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and…
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Oil Market Report - March 2025
…around $70/bbl. Shifting sands Benchmark crude oil prices fell in February and early March as concerns mounted over the outlook for the economy and global oil demand growth amid escalating trade tensions and as OPEC+ announced it would start unwinding production cuts in April. Against this backdrop, discussions started on the potential for an initial ceasefire and an eventual peace deal in Ukraine. ICE Brent futures declined by $11/bbl over the past eight weeks, trading near three-year lows around $70/bbl at the time of writing.The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated ove...
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Ramping up Heat Pumps in Moldova: A Roadmap
Buildings account for more than half of Moldova’s final energy consumption, with three-quarters of that used for space and water heating. At the same time, Moldova lacks domestic hydrocarbon resources and imports more than 80% of its primary energy. Heat pump technology offers Moldova an effective means of accelerating the transition in building heating.The recent expansion of Moldova’s solar and wind capacity also means that heat pumps can now play a greater role in cutting greenhouse gas emissions and lowering local air pollution. Finally, Moldovan’s 2024 referendum, endorsing the goal of European Union membership, underscores…
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Oil Market Report - December 2025
…mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb…
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Oil Market Report - June 2025
…3 mb/d and 83.7 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins in May were at their highest levels since 1Q24. However, the rally in crude prices in early June squeezed profitability levels as gasoline, naphtha and fuel oil cracks weakened.Russian crude and product exports fell by 230 kb/d m-o-m to 7.3 mb/d in May, down 380 kb/d y-o-y. As oil prices slid, revenues declined by $480 million m-o-m to $12.6 billion, a plunge of $4.0 billion y-o-y. May’s crude export revenues hit their lowest…
