Since 2020, more than 50 new policies have been introduced around the world, as more countries recognise the potential role of biogas and biomethane in the transition to sustainable energy systems. Several key factors are driving this surge. First is the growing importance of energy security following the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent geopolitical developments. Second is the need to accelerate decarbonisation in hard-to-abate sectors, together with growing emphasis on methane emissions reductions. Third, countries are paying more attention to the circular economy concept, recognising that biogas production can help revalorise organic waste and residues. Finally, as rural areas are losing population in many regions, biogas and biomethane development can contribute to rural economic growth.

This represents a 4% increase in 2030 from last year’s forecast. Net growth will come from biomethane owing to its versatility and the opportunity to use natural gas grids and equipment, which could make it possible to displace fossil fuels for hard-to-electrify uses with minimum infrastructure investment. However, direct biogas use, mainly for electricity or combined heat and power (CHP) generation, remains a relevant growth driver in regions with limited gas pipeline infrastructure (e.g. Brazil, India and China).

EU production of biogases in 2024 increased 3%. Growth was modest in biogas (1% year on year), but significantly higher for biomethane (14% year on year).

The production of biogas, used primarily for electricity and CHP generation, is highly concentrated in Germany (53% of EU production). Biomethane production is on the rise in most European countries, with Germany (29% of EU production), France, Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands collectively accounting for 93% of EU production. The United Kingdom is also significant, with production equivalent to an additional 23% of the EU total.

Several countries are working on their regulations to attract further investment. France’s new blending mandate for biomethane grid injection will be in force in 2026, while the Netherlands is developing one. Ireland has set a national blending mandate for heating.

Use in the transport sector continues to grow, especially where targets are based on fuels’ GHG performance, making biomethane more competitive, such as in Germany. On the other hand, creating a unified European market for trading green certificates remains a key demand. The new Union Database, expected to be operational for biogases in 2025, will facilitate the tracking of proof of sustainability (PoS) certificates required under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED).

Germany, the world’s largest biogas and biomethane market, with a combined production of 329 PJ in 2024, has remained quite stable since 2017, unlike fast-growing markets such as France, Italy and Denmark. Emerging producing countries, for instance Ireland, Spain and Poland, are slowly scaling up their output. Overall, achieving the EU 35-bcm target by 2030 will require a marked acceleration in growth across both mature and emerging markets. Combined biogas and biomethane forecasted growth between 2025 and 2030 is expected at 34%.

Biomethane (also called renewable natural gas) production in the United States is at around 136 PJ. Its market is one of the most dynamic ones, accelerating since 2022 especially.

The use of renewable natural gas (RNG) in transportation has been the key driver of RNG supply growth in the past five years, with average year-on-year increases of 28%. This rise was made possible by the combination of three types of stackable incentives: federal tax credits, renewable identification numbers (RINs) in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and carbon credits from state-level low-carbon fuel standard programmes, particularly in California.

Although transportation accounts for almost 60% of US RNG consumption, the market is expanding into non-transportation uses, leveraging its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure. Legislative support is growing, with four states having enacted measures to promote RNG in residential and commercial sectors, gas utilities are increasingly involved, and industrial customers are also turning to RNG to meet their voluntary ESG goals and offer “green” products to their clients.

Combined biogas and biomethane production is set to accelerate, growing 1.6 times by 2030 compared to the 2023 level. While biogas made up about 50% of output in 2023, 95% of new plants coming online are producing RNG.

The People's Republic of China (hereafter, "China") has a long-standing tradition of biogas production in farm household small-scale digesters. However, the number of active units has been declining over time, and government support shifted towards larger industrial-scale projects, with new policies in place since 2015.

China continued growth in the production of biogases in 2024, but several signals indicate acceleration. For instance, some state-owned energy and gas companies have recently commissioned bio-natural gas (BNG) plants. Foreign companies are also building new plants in China.

Regarding biogas, its main use today is for power generation (69% of biogases produced, if household production is excluded). According to installed capacity, power generation from biogas is accelerating growth (22% increase between 2022 and 2023).

Demand for biogas and BNG in the industry sector, for both energy and chemical uses, is rising. The first biomethane purchase agreements (BPAs) involving Chinese providers were signed in 2024. Additionally, industry stakeholders are considering using biomethane to produce low-emissions hydrogen and methanol.

In our main case forecast, combined biogas and biomethane production rises 23% between 2025 and 2030. When only medium- and large-scale projects are considered, growth is significantly stronger (around 80%).

In recent years, India has rolled out robust policy measures to promote industrial biogas and compressed biogas (CBG) plant development, including a CBG blending mandate into transport and domestic piped natural gas starting in FY 2025-2026.

Despite slower-than-expected growth, the pipeline for new projects is expanding quickly. Most registered plants are small-scale community facilities, but some large and very large plants are also planned. Furthermore, investment interest is rising among major companies, both national and foreign.

Main case expected growth for biogas and CBG combined is 21% between 2024 and 2030, around 20 PJ higher than last year’s forecast for 2030. The forecast includes a decrease in production from small household facilities in rural areas, used for residential heating and cooking, as they are being progressively abandoned.