The potential low-emissions hydrogen production from announced projects that could be available by 2030 has declined compared to in Global Hydrogen Review 2024. With only five years to 2030, and taking into account typical development cycles, which stretch from three to six years, realising the full pipeline of projects seems very difficult. In addition, we estimate that half of the announced projects face deferred start dates compared to the commercial operation date announced by developers. Delays are particularly acute among electrolyser projects, many of which had announced very ambitious timelines for a technology that had not previously been deployed at large scale. In comparison, large-scale CCUS projects have been operating for several years. More than half of potential electrolyser capacity is now set to slip past target operational dates, while 20% of CCUS capacity is similarly deferred.

This delay in project delivery raises questions about the volume of low-emissions hydrogen production that can feasibly be in operation by 2030. To evaluate announced projects, we have developed a methodology based on the status, size, location and target end-use sector of the projects, to assess the likelihood of 2030 operation. Projects that are under construction or at FID comprise more than 3 Mtpa of production that can be deemed almost certain (equalling more than 4 Mtpa when also considering operational projects). An additional 6 Mtpa has strong potential to be operative by 2030, but unlocking this volume will depend on closing the cost gap with unabated fossil fuel-based hydrogen through targeted subsidies, stimulating demand in existing industrial applications, and scaling up supporting infrastructure such as CO₂ transport and storage networks and hydrogen pipelines. A further 7 Mtpa has moderate potential but will require intensified policy efforts to secure offtake in emerging sectors (such as steelmaking, maritime shipping and aviation), and to provide concessional finance to projects under development in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), where regulatory frameworks remain nascent and access to capital is particularly challenging.

However, more than half of the potential production in the pipeline has low potential or is uncertain to be operative by 2030. Almost half of these projects are very large electrolysis developments in EMDEs that may have access to low-cost renewable electricity but face high barriers to development due to the lack of regulatory readiness, clear offtake frameworks and reliable financing channels. Even with rapid improvements to these conditions, the sheer scale of some announced projects makes it unlikely they will be commissioned before 2030, meaning that realistic operational timelines stretch into 2035–2040.

This likelihood assessment also helps to evaluate the likelihood of achieving government targets. Based solely on currently operating projects, China has already reached the lower end of its target of producing 100–200 ktpa of renewable hydrogen by 2025. The European Union’s project pipeline could technically deliver around 6 Mtpa by 2030, which is lower than its Hydrogen Strategy target, and just under 2 Mtpa are operational, almost certain or have strong potential to be available by 2030. A similar situation can be observed in the United Kingdom, with a total pipeline that accounts for close to 60% of its target, but with only around 25% having strong potential to be operative by 2030. Other countries with ambitious targets, such as India, Namibia and Oman, risk falling far short of their announced ambitions. In these cases, projects that are operational, almost certain or have a very strong potential to be available by 2030 account for less than 20% of their target. With the right incentives and policy settings, market development can be accelerated, but the short period of time until 2030 makes the achievement of some stated ambitions very unlikely. This juncture calls for governments to recalibrate hydrogen production targets to align with sectoral maturity, at the same time as maintaining and strengthening regulatory frameworks, financial incentives and demand-creation measures, to ensure that anticipated low-emissions volumes materialise.