Wind turbine

Why is wind power important?

Onshore wind is a proven, mature technology with an extensive global supply chain. Onshore wind has evolved over the last five years to maximise electricity produced per megawatt capacity installed to unlock more sites with lower wind speeds. Wind turbines have become bigger with taller hub heights, and larger rotor diameters. Offshore wind is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years as deploying turbines at sea takes advantage of stronger winds.

What is the role of wind power in clean energy transitions?

Wind and solar are the predominant sources of power generation in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, but annual wind capacity additions until 2030 need to increase significantly to be on track with the Net Zero pathway.

Where do we need to go?

Reaching the levels of annual wind electricity generation foreseen in the Net Zero Scenario will require increased support for both onshore and offshore farms. Efforts should be focused on facilitating permitting, gaining public support, supporting the identification of suitable sites, decreasing costs and reducing project development timelines.

Onshore wind is a proven, mature technology with an extensive global supply chain. Onshore wind has evolved over the last five years to maximise electricity produced per megawatt capacity installed to unlock more sites with lower wind speeds. Wind turbines have become bigger with taller hub heights, and larger rotor diameters. Offshore wind is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years as deploying turbines at sea takes advantage of stronger winds.

Wind and solar are the predominant sources of power generation in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, but annual wind capacity additions until 2030 need to increase significantly to be on track with the Net Zero pathway.

Reaching the levels of annual wind electricity generation foreseen in the Net Zero Scenario will require increased support for both onshore and offshore farms. Efforts should be focused on facilitating permitting, gaining public support, supporting the identification of suitable sites, decreasing costs and reducing project development timelines.

Latest findings

Wind has one of the greatest potentials to increase countries' renewable capacity growth

Solar PV and wind additions are forecast to more than double by 2028 compared with 2022, continuously breaking records over the forecast period to reach almost 710 GW. In our accelerated case, onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV together have the largest upside potential.

Simplifying permitting and adapting auction designs would lead to higher auction subscriptions, and thus faster deployment of utility-scale solar PV and wind power plants, as would higher investment in transmission and distribution grids. in 2025, wind surpasses nuclear electricity generation.

Renewable capacity growth by technology, main and accelerated cases, 2005-2028

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Following two consecutive years of decline, onshore wind capacity additions are on course to rebound by 70% in 2023 to 107 GW, an all-time record amount

This is mainly due to the commissioning of delayed projects in China following last year’s Covid-19 restrictions. Faster expansion is also expected in Europe and the United States as a result of supply chain challenges pushing project commissioning from 2022 into 2023. On the other hand, offshore wind growth is not expected to match the record expansion it achieved two years ago due to the low volume of projects under construction outside of China.

Net onshore wind electricity capacity additions by country or region, 2022-2024

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Offshore wind has a remarkable potential

As a part of its Offshore Wind Outlook 2019, the IEA initiated new geospatial analysis to assess the technical potential of offshore wind by country. Its study showed that the best close-to-shore offshore wind sites globally could provide almost 36 000 TWh of electricity per year, which is very close to the global electricity demand projected for 2040. However, several challenges will have to be overcome for this enormous potential to be successfully exploited. Government policies will continue to be critical in determining to the future of offshore wind.

Offshore wind technical potential and electricity demand, 2018

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Tracking Wind Electricity

More efforts needed

In 2022 wind electricity generation increased by a record 265 TWh (up 14%), reaching more than 2 100 TWh. This was the second highest growth among all renewable power technologies, behind solar PV. However, to get on track with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which envisages approximately 7 400 TWh of wind electricity generation in 2030, the average annual generation growth rate needs to increase to about 17%. Achieving this will require increasing annual capacity additions from about 75 GW in 2022 to 350 GW in 2030. Far greater policy and private-sector efforts are needed to achieve this level of capacity growth, with the most important areas for improvement being facilitating permitting for onshore wind and cost reductions for offshore wind. 

China was responsible for half of global wind power capacity additions in 2022

Countries and regions making notable progress to advance wind electricity include: 

  • China continues to lead in terms of wind capacity additions, with 37 GW added in 2022, including 7 GW in offshore farms. The 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy, announced in 2022, provides ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment, which should drive further deployment in the coming years.  
  • The European Union is accelerating wind deployment in response to the energy crisis, with 13 GW added in 2022. New policies and targets proposed in the REPowerEU Plan and The Green Deal Industrial Plan are expected to be important drivers of wind power investment. 
  • The United States included generous new funding for wind power in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) introduced in 2022. Investment and production tax credits will boost capacity deployment in the medium term. In 2023, the first large-scale offshore wind farms on the American continent are expected to come online on the East Coast of the United States.  
  • The United Kingdom installed almost 3 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2022, more than the rest of the world combined, excluding China. In 2022, the first floating wind farm was contracted in a Contract-for-Difference auction. 

Generation increased by a record amount in 2022, but much faster growth is needed to get on the Net Zero Scenario trajectory

Wind power generation in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030

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The amount of electricity generated by wind increased by 265 TWh in 2022 (up 14%), the second largest growth of all power generation technologies. Wind remains the leading non-hydro renewable technology, generating over 2 100 TWh in 2022, more than all the others combined.  

China was responsible for almost 40% of wind generation growth in 2022, followed by the United States at 22%. Generation in the European Union rebounded in 2022, increasing 14% after unusually long periods of low wind conditions in 2021.  

Global wind capacity additions have decreased in the last two years, and in 2022 reached only two-thirds of the record level in 2020, which is expected to result in slower generation growth in 2023. 

Aligning with the wind power generation level of about 7 400 TWh in 2030 envisaged by the Net Zero Scenario calls for average expansion of approximately 17% per year during 2023-2030. Policy support for wind power is increasing in major markets such as China, India, the European Union and the United States, but much greater efforts are needed to get on a pathway consistent with the Net Zero Scenario. 

Onshore technology continues to dominate wind capacity growth, but offshore is increasing its share

Wind power capacity in the Net Zero Scenario, 2015-2030

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In 2022, of the total 900 GW of wind capacity installed, 93% was in onshore systems, with the remaining 7% in offshore wind farms. Onshore wind is a developed technology, present in 115 countries around the world, while offshore wind is at the early stage of expansion, with capacity present in just 20 countries. Offshore reach is expected to increase in the coming years as more countries are developing or planning to develop their first offshore wind farms. In 2022, 18% of total wind capacity growth of 74 GW was delivered by offshore technology. 

Global wind capacity additions in 2022 were 20% lower than in 2021, and 32% below the record 2020 growth. The slowdown resulted mostly from project commissioning delays in China related to lockdowns due to the Covid-19 pandemic and lower installations in the United States due to the phase-out of tax incentives. Wind capacity additions are expected to rebound in 2023 and further accelerate in the following years, driven by increased policy support in the United States and the European Union, and policy targets and high economic competitiveness in China. Offshore deployment is also expected to accelerate in existing markets, such as the European Union, the United Kingdom and China, as well as to enter new markets such as Japan, Chinese Taipei and the United States.  

Getting on track with annual wind electricity generation of about 7 400 TWh in 2030, as envisaged under the NZE Scenario, will require increased support for both onshore and offshore installations. Efforts should be focused on facilitating permitting, supporting the identification of suitable sites, decreasing costs and reducing project development timelines.  

Wind equipment manufacturing continues to expand slowly – an acceleration is needed to keep pace with expected demand under the Net Zero Scenario

Onshore wind power manufacturing capacity according to announced projects and in the Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2030

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Offshore wind power manufacturing capacity according to announced projects and in the Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2030

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In 2022, manufacturing capacity for the main wind power components (nacelles, towers and blades) remained mostly unchanged from the previous year at 110-120 GW. According to announced expansion plans, global production capabilities are expected to increase in line with anticipated demand in the next 3 years, resulting in approximately 120-140 GW of capacity. China is expected to remain the largest manufacturing hub for all main wind energy components in the medium term, with 60-80% share of global capacity.  

Realisation of announced projects would bring global wind manufacturing capacity to only about one-third of what is required in 2030 to meet demand envisaged in the NZE Scenario. A rapid increase in co-ordinated efforts from both government and private stakeholders is needed to accelerate wind power deployment and manufacturing capacity investments.  

Wind power technology development continues to focus on increasing productivity and lowering costs

Wind technology innovation is focused on increasing the productivity of turbines, especially in areas with low wind conditions, by developing turbines with longer blades and higher towers. However, the maximum height of onshore wind turbines is often restricted in certain regions for environmental and public acceptance reasons, which limits the scope of possible innovation.  

In the offshore wind segment, in contrast, there is no such size restriction; innovation is therefore focused on designing larger turbines, which allow reductions in the overall cost of power generation. In parallel, the development of cost-competitive and safe floating offshore wind turbines is accelerating. Floating wind farms could unblock the vast potential of ocean areas with a water depth too great for fixed turbines and they could be a vital energy transition tool. Deep, relatively near-shore areas in France, Japan, Korea, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the west coast of the United States are expected to be the first to see large-scale deployment of this technology. 

Policy support continues to be the main driver of wind power deployment

Policy support remains the principal driver of wind deployment in the majority of the world. Various types of policy are driving capacity growth, including auctions, feed-in tariffs, contracts for difference and renewable energy portfolio standards. The following important policy changes and targets affecting the growth of wind energy have been implemented in the past couple of years: 

  • China published its 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy in June 2022, which includes an ambitious target of 33% of electricity generation to come from renewables by 2025 (up from about 29% in 2021), including an 18% target for wind and solar technologies. 
  • In August 2022 the federal government of the United States introduced the IRA, which significantly expands support for renewable energy in the next ten years through tax credits and other measures. 
  • In May 2022 the European Commission proposed to increase the European Union’s renewable energy target for 2030 to 45% as part of the REPowerEU Plan. In February 2023 the Commission announced The Green Deal Industrial Plan, aiming to support the expansion of clean energy technology manufacturing, including wind power. In another positive development, in April 2023 nine European countries announced plans to significantly accelerate offshore wind deployment and increase installed power capacity from 30 GW in 2022 to over 120 GW by 2030 and over 300 GW by 2050. 
  • During COP26, held in November 2021, India announced new 2030 targets of 500 GW of total non-fossil power capacity and a 50% renewable electricity generation share (more than double the 22% share in 2020), as well as net zero emissions by 2070.  

Wind power investments increased in 2022 by 20%, rebounding after 2021 slowdown

Investment in wind generation increased by 20% in 2022, returning to growth after a slowdown in 2021, and leading to expectations of significant capacity deployment in 2023. Investment reached a record USD 185 billion, the second largest among all power generation technologies (behind solar PV), and this is expected to grow further in the coming years thanks to ambitious government targets, policy support and high competitiveness. 

Wind power is a part of all major renewable power collaboration programmes

Beyond global renewable energy initiatives that include wind (see Renewables page), there are numerous international organisations, collaboration programmes, groups and initiatives aimed at accelerating wind power growth around the world, including:  

  • The IEA Wind Energy Systems Technology Collaboration Programme, which provides an information platform for participating governments and industry leaders on co-operative R&D efforts to reduce the cost of wind energy technologies, increase transmission and power system flexibility, and raise social acceptance of wind energy projects.  

Private-sector activity remains a modest driver of wind power deployment

The main activity of the private sector in wind power deployment is entering into corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) – signing direct contracts with wind power plant operators for the purchase of generated electricity. In 2022 wind farms were responsible for 30% of all renewable capacity contracted in PPAs.  

Recommendations

Wind will grow faster than over the previous five years

Onshore wind additions increase in our main-case forecast, from 74 GW in 2021 to 109 GW in 2027. Onshore wind additions are climbing most quickly in countries that have stable policy frameworks providing long-term revenue certainty, policies that address permitting challenges and plans for timely grid expansion. However, just a small number of countries, including China, Germany and Spain, have so far made improvements in all three areas.