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World Energy Outlook 2025 Implications of CPS and STEPS
Between continuity and change By 2035, energy demand in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) is around 35 exajoules (EJ) higher than in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), a difference roughly equivalent to the current annual energy demand of the Middle East. All the extra energy required in the CPS compared to the STEPS comes from oil, natural gas and coal. In the absence of renewed geopolitical disruptions, markets for oil and natural gas appear well supplied in the coming years. But production from existing oil fields declines at a rate of 8% per year, if no investment is made, so it…
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Paolo Frankl
Head of the Renewable Energy Division.
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Teresa Ribera Rodríguez
Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition. Teresa Ribera Rodríguez has served as Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition at the European Commission since December 2024. Her previous government roles include Spain's Minister of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge and State Secretary for Climate Change. Ms Ribera Rodríguez has also held senior roles at environment and sustainable development organisations around the world.
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Oil 2025 Executive summary
Turbulent times in oil markets Heightened geopolitical risks, unresolved trade tensions, and policy shifts have added myriad uncertainties to the oil market outlook. Since the start of the year, major economic forecasters have cut their outlooks for world GDP growth in 2025 by roughly half a percentage point to around 2.8% and see a below-trend pace of about 3% annually for the remainder of the decade, with knock-on implications for oil demand. With conflicts in the Middle East region at risk of intensifying and trade negotiations ongoing, uncertainties surrounding our forecasts are substantial. At the same time…
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Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 Policy mechanisms for diversified mineral supplies
Increasing cost pressures in operations outside dominant producers pose risks to diversification and sustainability efforts Supply chains for key energy minerals are highly concentrated, creating strong incentives for policymakers to build more secure and resilient supply chains through greater diversification. This concentration is often underpinned by network efforts, lower costs, and, in many cases, by relatively energy- and emissions-intensive processes. Capital expenditures for mining and refining in regions outside the dominant player are typically 50% higher than those within the top producing country. These producers also often face higher all-in sustaining costs, making it difficult to remain profitable…
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Key Questions on Energy and AI Executive summary
The AI and energy nexus continues to evolve rapidly The largest technology companies are contributing to a surge in data centre investment, as their capital expenditure exceeded USD 400 billion in 2025 – and is expected to jump by another 75% in 2026. Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production. Many jurisdictions are seeing project pipelines accelerate dramatically, although not all projects will come to fruition. Those that are moving forward are doing so at pace: the IEA’s unique satellite-based tracking shows that “artificial intelligence (AI) factories…
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Peter Zeniewski
Senior Energy Analyst. Dr. Peter Zeniewski is a Senior Energy Analyst at the IEA. His main area of focus is the outlook for natural gas and LNG – covering long-term assessments of supply, demand, trade, investment and pricing. He has also led projects on energy affordability, biogases, India’s energy outlook, and emissions from oil and gas supply. Prior to joining the IEA, Peter was a Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Edinburgh and held positions at the European Commission and Wood Mackenzie. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Oxford.
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Global Methane Tracker 2026 Understanding methane emissions
Atmospheric methane concentrations continue to rise Methane (CH4) is the second-most harmful greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2), trapping outgoing heat and warming the atmosphere through a process known as radiative forcing. Though it lingers in the atmosphere for far less time (12 years, compared with centuries for CO2), methane absorbs substantially more energy while it does. Cutting methane emissions therefore promises significant near-term climate benefits. Methane carries other hazards, too: it contributes to the formation of ground-level (tropospheric) ozone, a harmful pollutant, and methane leaks can also pose explosion risks.Atmospheric methane concentrations today are 2…
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Policy options to accelerate distributed solar PV in Ukraine Policy options and implications
Overview of policy instruments for distributed solar PV deployment Globally, government policies and incentives have been the main driver for distributed PV deployment. These instruments can be differentiated between 1) policies targeting investment costs and 2) policies focusing on consumption and the sale of electricity.Policies targeting investment costs usually take the form of direct financial incentives that aim to reduce initial investment costs and make distributed PV systems more affordable for consumers. They include:Grants and rebates: a fixed subsidy, usually with a one-time payment.Tax credits: amounts taxpayers can subtract from taxes, usually based on a percentage…
