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Global Energy and Climate Model Understanding GEC Model scenarios
Overview The IEA’s medium- to long-term outlook publications – including the World Energy Outlook (WEO) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) – use a scenario approach relying on the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model to examine future energy trends.Each scenario has the same starting point and is based on the latest data for energy supply and demand, markets, technology costs and policies, as well as the same pathways for future population and economic growth.The energy system described and explored in each scenario evolves in a distinctive pathway that delivers energy services with a different mix of technologies and…
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Gas Market Report, Q2-2026 Executive summary
The Middle East conflict has disrupted gas market fundamentals and is changing the medium-term outlook The war in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through energy markets. The easing of fundamentals in international natural gas markets in early 2026 was abruptly disrupted by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of March, which has created unprecedented uncertainty.The crisis has profoundly distorted short-term market fundamentals and is altering the medium-term outlook for natural gas. The loss, for the time being, of almost 20% of global LNG supply has caused strong price volatility, driving…
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Global Energy and Climate Model Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
The 2025 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) does not include the Announced Pledges Scenario. Our assessment of the new round of NDCs due this year, generally the period to 2035, will follow once there is a more complete picture of these pledges.The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), introduced in 2021, illustrates the extent to which announced ambitions and targets can deliver the emissions reductions needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. In the WEO-2024, the APS includes all recent major national announcements as of the end of August 2024, both 2030 targets and longer-term net zero…
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Coal Mid-Year Update 2025 Trade
Global coal trade reached an all-time high in 2024 Global coal trade reached a new all-time high in 2024, with total volumes estimated to be 1.55 Bt, surpassing the 1.5 Bt mark for the first time. Thermal coal trade rose by 28 Mt to reach 1 180 Mt. This growth was primarily driven by strong import demand in Asia, especially from China. The country experienced growth in imports, with coal imports reaching new highs. Imports increased by 14% up to 548 Mt, resulting in total annual imports surpassing 500 Mt for the first time. This volume is more than…
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Global Energy Review 2025 Coal
Global coal demand growth slows Global coal demand grew by 1.2% in 2024 in energy terms, rising by around 67 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) (or in physical terms by 1.4% or 123 million tonnes). The growth rate has been declining since the strong rebound in 2021 following the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in many countries.The electricity sector continues to drive coal demand, accounting for two-thirds of global consumption. In 2024, global coal power generation grew by nearly 1% to 10 700 TWh, a new high. A key driver was record temperatures, which pushed up electricity demand for…
- Key findings
- Global trends
- Oil
- Natural gas
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+ 3 pages
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Alexandre Gouy
Research Assistant.
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Global EV Outlook 2026 Outlook for electric mobility
Vehicle outlook by mode By 2035, the fleet of EVs across all vehicle types except two/three-wheelers (2/3Ws) exceeds 450 million globally in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) – more than five times as many EVs as there were at the end of 2025. CO2 and fuel economy standards, especially for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs), are the main driver of rising EV sales outside of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). In China and a few other emerging markets, the competitive economics of EVs already support continued adoption in the CPS. Elsewhere, however, EV sales stall, particularly…
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Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency for Business Turning the opportunity into reality
Across sectors, the evidence consistently shows that the value of energy efficiency extends far beyond energy savings, often matching or even exceeding them.A key challenge is that much of this value is not systematically captured in investment decisions. Business cases are often built on energy savings alone, overlooking gains in productivity, resource efficiency, product quality, brand reputation and workforce health. Reflecting these wider benefits can significantly strengthen investment cases and improve how efficiency projects compete for capital.This report draws on available evidence to highlight these broader benefits and why they matter in practice. The steps below show how…
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Malisol Ohirko
IFNEC Policy Advisor.
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Financing the Modernisation of Power Systems Beyond Coal Executive summary
The role of coal in power systems is evolving This report assesses the potential applications, limitations and relevance of transition credits in Southeast Asia. Coal is the largest source of power generation worldwide and the largest source of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. All Southeast Asian countries with coal in their power generation mix have adopted commitments to reduce coal-fired generation or emissions targets that imply a significant decline in coal consumption in the coming decades. To meet these targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has long emphasised that a range of strategies can be deployed to reduce coal…
