Global coal production reached a record 9.15 Bt in 2024, driven primarily by strong output in China, India and Indonesia. Domestic coal is the largest source of energy supply in both China and India making coal production central to their energy security strategies. After shortages in 2021, both countries boosted production, a push that lasted a few years to reach an all-time high in 2024. China remained the largest producer, maintaining output at 4 666 Mt. Although Shanxi, traditionally the largest coal producing province, reduced production by 7% to 1 273 Mt due to safety-related constraints, national volumes were sustained by strong growth in Inner Mongolia (up 90 Mt) and Xinjiang (up 78 Mt).

India increased production by 7% to reach 1 082 Mt, around three-quarters of which is produced by Coal India Limited (CIL), which remains the main driver of national output. CIL output grew 4%, or 29 Mt. However, the largest gains came from captive and commercial mines, which expanded 31%, producing an additional 44 Mt. Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL), the second largest producer in India, experienced a decline of 2.5 Mt.

Indonesia, the world’s third-largest producer, increased output by 8% to 836 Mt, supported by high domestic demand and increasing export volumes, particularly to China. In Australia, production increased around 3% to 475 Mt, despite heavy rainfalls in the beginning of the year. The United States saw a 11% drop, mainly due to a halt in the stock building in 2024. Mongolia’s production jumped by 21% as Chinese import demand strengthened. South African production increased by 1%, as power outages impacted growth of domestic coal demand.

In 2025, we expect global coal production to rise slightly to 9.2 Bt, setting a new record. This increase is once again led by China and India, with China’s output growing by 6% year-on-year during the first six months of the year. However, the same period in 2024 marked a low base due to the production cuts in Shanxi. The province is expected to regain its position as China’s top coal-producing region in 2025. As a result, output for the full year is expected to rise by 3%, reaching 4.8 Bt. That said, the overall growth masks signs of softening demand, which have led to elevated stock levels in several regions and persistently low international coal prices. India’s production in 2025 will grow by another 3% to 1.11 Bt, with the biggest increase coming from captive and commercial mines.

Indonesia experienced an estimated 8% decrease in production during the first half of the year, primarily due to low international market prices, particularly in China. Adverse weather conditions also disrupted mining operations. For the entire year, production is expected to decline by 10%, reaching 755 Mt. In the United States, coal output rose an estimated 8% in the first half of 2025, though growth is expected to moderate in the second half. Full-year production is forecast to reach 477 Mt. Australia’s production, which was impacted by mine accidents and adverse weather conditions, will fall by 5% to 434 Mt. Russia’s coal production is expected to decrease slightly in 2025. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to ongoing sanctions. In 2024, more than half of Russian coal producers reported losses, prompting the government to introduce rail transport subsidies in May 2025 to support the sector.

European producers will see continued declines. The Republic of Türkiye’s (hereafter “Türkiye”) production is decreasing by 10%, and Poland’s by 4%. Although Germany’s lignite output is slightly up in the first half of 2025, full-year output is expected to decline by 3% as more renewable generation comes online in the second half of the year. Mongolia’s production will drop by 5% to 99 Mt. South African production is expected to grow by 3%, while Colombia’s output will fall sharply by 20%.

As things stand today, with abundant stocks and low prices, and expectations of coal demand gradually reducing through 2026, global coal production is projected to decline by 1.4% in 2026, falling to 9.1 Bt. This would mark the first annual decrease since the recent peak, driven by weakening demand, high stock levels, and policy shifts in major markets. However, despite the decline, production will remain above the 9 Bt threshold, highlighting coal’s ongoing role in the global energy mix.

China’s output is expected to fall by 1% to 4.76 Bt, while Indian production will continue to grow at 3%, reaching 1.15 Bt. Indonesia will reduce production at 721Mt, as continued inventory pressure and reduced export demand will not be offset by stronger domestic demand from the power sector. In the United States, production is projected to decline by 9% to 434 Mt.The situation in Russia is uncertain because it is suffering serious losses amid the Western sanctions and low prices despite receiving government support. Australia will see another 1% drop in production, bringing output to 447 Mt.

The European Union’s decline in coal production will continue, with output falling 13% down to 209 Mt, with the largest reductions occurring in Germany and Poland. Mongolia’s production will rebound 3% to 102 Mt. Kazakhstan is projected to maintain production close to 110 Mt, while South Africa is expected to see an increase of 3% up to 247 Mt. Meanwhile, Colombia’s production is set to decline further, reaching 59 Mt.