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Global coal demand growth slows

Global coal demand grew by 1.2% in 2024 in energy terms, rising by around 67 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) (or in physical terms by 1.4% or 123 million tonnes). The growth rate has been declining since the strong rebound in 2021 following the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in many countries.

The electricity sector continues to drive coal demand, accounting for two-thirds of global consumption. In 2024, global coal power generation grew by nearly 1% to 10 700 TWh, a new high. A key driver was record temperatures, which pushed up electricity demand for cooling (especially with intense heatwaves in China and India). The estimated effect of higher temperatures on coal demand in 2024 covers the entire annual increase in coal use. While coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, its share in the electricity mix is falling: its current share (35%) is the lowest since the IEA was founded in 1974.

Consumption of metallurgical coal fell by around 0.5% in 2024, driven mainly by the decline in global steel production. However, overall coal demand for non‑power uses grew very slightly, driven by the growth and strong performance of coal-intensive sectors such as nickel mining in Indonesia and chemical production in China.

Developing Asia leads increasing coal demand

The share of global coal demand consumed in Developing Asia rose again in 2024, reaching nearly four fifths, up from below two fifths in 2000. In China, coal demand grew by 1.2% (43 Mtce) in 2024, reaching a new all-time high. The country now consumes nearly 40% more coal than the rest of the world combined, largely for power generation. Over one-third of all the coal consumed globally is burned by power plants in China. China’s influence in global coal market trends is unparalleled by any country for any type of fuel, with China’s share of global coal consumption now standing at 58%.

In 2024, electricity demand in China was very strong, rising by 7% (or over 550 TWh). Despite huge solar PV and wind capacity additions in recent years – as well as a recovery in hydropower output in the first half of the year due to higher rainfall, plus increases in nuclear, biomass and gas power generation – there was still a gap between the additional electricity demand and supply. Coal generation filled this gap, increasing by 1.2%. Coal consumption in China’s iron and steel sector – larger than total coal consumption in any country except India – shrank by around 2%, as steel production declined by 1.7%. Cement production declined by around 9.5%, and we estimate a similar decline in the sector’s coal consumption. However, strong growth in coal used for chemicals and other products partially offset the wider drop in non-power coal consumption.

Coal demand in advanced economies, 1974-2024

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Change in coal demand in emerging markets and developing economies, 2023-2024

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In India, the world’s second-largest coal consumer, demand grew by around 5.5% or 40 Mtce in 2024, also reaching a new all-time high. Strong economic growth pushed up coal consumption in both the power and industry sectors. Coal power generation – which makes up nearly three-quarters of coal demand in India – grew by 5% in 2024 mirroring growth in electricity demand. Steel production grew by 6.3% in 2024. Coal-based sponge iron production increased by 10% and hot metal production increased by 4.4%, boosting industrial coal use.

In Southeast Asia – which in 2023 became the third-largest coal consuming region in the world, overtaking the United States – coal consumption continued to grow in 2024, rising by almost 8% (25 Mtce). The increase was mainly driven by three countries. In Indonesia, use by metallurgical industries – in particular, nickel producers – was the main growth driver. In the Philippines and Viet Nam, coal power generation was the main driver.

In advanced economies, coal demand has halved from the peak seen in 2007 and 2024 saw another decline. In the United States, coal consumption fell by 4% (around 10 Mtce), though this is a significant slowdown compared with the 17% drop recorded in 2023. Total electricity demand, which switched from decline in 2023 to growth in 2024, was the main driver of this trend; in the United States, coal is used almost exclusively for power generation.

In the European Union, coal demand continued its decline as an increasing number of countries closed coal power plants. The United Kingdom, where the world’s first coal power plant was set up in 1882, joined the list of countries without coal power capacity in September 2024. EU coal power generation fell 15% in 2024 and  total coal demand fell by over 10% or 21 Mtce.

In 2024, global coal-based electricity generation grew by 90 TWh, while generation from wind, solar PV and nuclear grew 770 TWh. We estimate that without the increase in output from these three technologies in 2024, the increase of global coal demand would have been nearly two times higher.