By 2035, the fleet of EVs across all vehicle types except two/three-wheelers (2/3Ws) exceeds 450 million globally in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) – more than five times as many EVs as there were at the end of 2025. CO2 and fuel economy standards, especially for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs), are the main driver of rising EV sales outside of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). In China and a few other emerging markets, the competitive economics of EVs already support continued adoption in the CPS. Elsewhere, however, EV sales stall, particularly in regions with limited policy support or inadequate charging infrastructure.

In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), EV deployment follows a trajectory similar to in the CPS, but with higher growth, especially in regions outside Europe and China – EVs across all vehicle types increase by around six times, without counting two- and three-wheelers (2/3Ws). Overall, the majority of EV market expansion – from 21 million electric cars today to 55 million electric cars by 2035 – takes place in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), highlighting the critical role these economies will play in the coming decade. In this scenario, the stock of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) increases at an average rate of about 20% per year. More than 90% of these vehicles are electric cars, a share similar to that observed in 2025. In contrast, the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE) sees a significantly faster expansion of the EV fleet (excluding 2/3Ws) by 2035, reaching close to 800 million.

By 2035, the stock of electric 2/3Ws reaches around 200 million in the CPS and around 300 million in the STEPS, representing a fourfold increase compared to today’s levels. The CPS sees adoption of electric 2/3Ws grow particularly for commercial use cases, thanks to the competitive total cost of ownership. EVs account for around 22% of all vehicles on the road (including 2/3Ws) by 2035 in the CPS, and over 25% in the STEPS, with most of the difference between CPS and STEPS to come from buses and 2/3Ws. In the NZE Scenario, the corresponding share reaches around 45%, reflecting higher levels of policy ambition and technology deployment.

The share of the global EV stock located in China declines from 70% in 2025 to over 55% by 2035 in the CPS and around 50% in the STEPS, as adoption accelerates in other markets.

In terms of market share, electric 2/3Ws reach close to 60% in the STEPS. Although electric buses and electric LDVs had roughly similar EV stock shares in 2025, the sales share of electric buses grows more slowly, reaching close to 25% globally by 2035 in the STEPS. This slower growth reflects the challenges faced in electrifying intercity buses. In the CPS, around 10% of the global bus stock is electric in 2035, and in the STEPS, this share is slightly more than 15%. The NZE Scenario sees faster adoption of electric buses over the same period, reaching 40% of the bus stock.

Truck electrification continues to grow, across both medium and heavy freight trucks, supported by policy measures (such as emissions standards in the European Union) and cost-competitiveness, particularly in China. The rapid growth observed over recent years in China, driven by the technology’s cost-competitiveness in this vehicle segment, explains the higher overall share of electric trucks in the CPS compared with buses. Over the coming decade, China plays a larger role in global truck sales than in global bus sales. By 2035, electric trucks reach around 20% of truck sales globally in the CPS, while about 10% of the truck stock is electric. Electrification is faster in the STEPS, with the market share 3 percentage points higher, and the NZE Scenario assumes a substantially higher uptake of electric trucks by 2035, with a market share around two times higher than in the STEPS.

For some countries, the energy security benefits of reducing dependency on oil – and especially on oil imports – have been at the heart of EV policy support. China, for example, is the world’s largest importer of oil and home to the world’s largest stock of EVs. Ethiopia is another prime example, where the government decided in 2024 to ban the import of ICEVs to mitigate the country’s spending on oil imports – which topped USD 4 billion in 2022. Although it takes time for new EV sales to accumulate in the stock enough to make noticeable reductions in oil demand, the global fleet of EVs was responsible for displacing around 1.7 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) in 2025 – equivalent to Indonesia’s total oil demand in 2025. In China alone, EVs reduced oil demand by around 1 mb/d in 2025, which represents a reduction of around 15% compared to what road transport oil demand would have been if only ICEVs were on the road.

As soon as 2030, in both the CPS and STEPS, the oil displaced by EVs increases threefold to around 5 mb/d worldwide, bringing global oil demand for road transport down to around 44 mb/d. In the NZE Scenario, more than 7.5 mb/d of oil are displaced thanks to rapid EV adoption.

By 2035, EVs displace around 9 mb/d of diesel and gasoline in 2035 in the CPS. The oil displacement from EVs is about 1 mb/d higher in the STEPS, reaching around 10 mb/d in 2035. In both the CPS and STEPS, oil displacement in China reaches more than 4 mb/d in 2035, roughly 50% of the global total displacement. In the NZE Scenario, more than 15 mb/d of oil demand are avoided worldwide in 2035 due to EV deployment.

Electric LDVs were behind most of the oil displacement in 2025 (around 80%), though oil displacement due to the deployment of electric trucks in China represented more than 10%. In both the CPS and STEPS, LDVs are responsible for around 80% of the total oil displaced by EVs in 2035. Still, electric trucks and buses together displace around 1.3 mb/d in the CPS in 2035; in the STEPS, this is around 1.5 mb/d, and in the NZE Scenario, nearly 3.5 mb/d.

In 2025, the global fleet of EVs consumed around 250 TWh of electricity. As such, EVs accounted for about 1% of final electricity demand worldwide last year. As the stock of EVs grows more than fourfold by 2035 in the CPS, electricity demand increases around sixfold, exceeding 1 500 TWh. Around 85% of the increase in electricity demand for EVs in this scenario comes from the China and Europe.

In the STEPS, electricity demand for EVs reaches 1 700 TWh in 2035, about 10% higher than in the CPS in that year. Growth in this scenario is driven by rising consumption from electric trucks and higher EV adoption in more markets. In the NZE Scenario, electricity demand for EVs surpasses 3 000 TWh globally over the same period.

Globally, electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) remain the largest consumers of electricity for road transport through 2035 in all scenarios. However, the LDV share of road electricity demand falls from around 65% in 2025 to more than 60% by 2035 in the STEPS. In China, LDVs accounted for roughly 45% of demand from EVs in 2025, and this share reaches 50% in 2035, illustrating the country’s widespread adoption of EVs across different vehicle segments in both scenarios. In the United States, nearly all demand from EVs came from LDVs in 2025, and this share is maintained in the CPS, but falls to around 85% in the STEPS by 2035, as electricity use from electric trucks and buses grows. In Europe, increasing deployment of electric medium and heavy freight trucks pushes their share of electricity demand from EVs from around 5% in 2025 to around 20% by 2035 in both scenarios.

In both China and Europe, the share of electricity consumed by EVs reached around 1.5% of total electricity demand in 2025. By 2035, Europe’s EV electricity demand share exceeds China’s, as electricity consumption for other sectors, such as industry and buildings, grows more quickly in China. Globally, EVs represent about 5% of electricity demand by 2035 in the STEPS, compared to 4% in the CPS and around 7% in the NZE Scenario.

From 2015 to 2025, direct emissions from the road transport sector increased by almost 10% as vehicle activity (kilometres driven) increased by nearly 25%. This global increase in road transport emissions was driven by more than 35% growth in vehicle activity in EMDEs. At the same time, despite road activity growing over 10% in advanced economies, tailpipe emissions actually fell slightly in those economies, thanks to vehicle efficiency improvements and growing EV adoption. Battery electric vehicles are one of two vehicle technologies1 available today that produce zero tailpipe emissions; plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions when driving in electric mode.

As vehicle efficiency continues to improve in regions with fuel economy and/or CO2 standards, the average CO2 intensity of driving is falling. In advanced economies, where a number of countries have enforceable standards in place governing future improvements – such as in Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea and the United Kingdom – CO2 emissions from road transport fall by 10% from 2025 to 2035 in the CPS, despite activity growing by more than 5%. In China, where there are also fuel economy standards in place and where electric car sales are increasingly market driven, direct road transport emissions fall by over a third from 2025 to 2035 in the CPS, while activity grows around 35%. Across EMDEs other than China, fuel economy and CO2 standards are less common, and road transport emissions grow more than 30% over the next decade in the CPS, driving global road transport emissions up by over 2% by 2035.

In the STEPS, EV deployment and vehicle efficiency improvements proceed somewhat faster globally than in the CPS. As a result, road transport emissions in 2035 are about 4% lower in the STEPS. Road tailpipe emissions in EMDEs outside of China still grow over the next decade in this scenario, increasing around 25% compared to 2025.

In the NZE Scenario, road transport emissions fall significantly by 2035, in both advanced and emerging economies. Globally, road transport emissions in 2035 are around 40% lower in the NZE Scenario than in the policy-based exploratory scenarios.

Although EVs produce no tailpipe emissions when powered by electricity, there are still emissions associated with generating that electricity. Well-to-wheel emissions impacts can therefore be used to determine the net impact of EV adoption. This accounts for emissions savings from the displacement of fossil fuel demand for ICEVs and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), as well as the emissions generated by the electricity to power EVs.

In 2025, the stock of EVs was responsible for avoiding net emissions of 190 Mt CO2‑equivalent (CO2-eq) – similar to the energy-related emissions of Spain. More than half of the current emissions savings are attributable to EV deployment in China, despite more than half of China’s electricity generation coming from unabated coal. Around 40% of the net GHG emissions savings from 2025 were from EV deployment in advanced economies.

Over the next 10 years, growing EV adoption in the CPS results in the cumulative avoidance of approximately 7 Gt CO2‑eq globally, with over 1.2 Gt CO2‑eq avoided in 2035 alone. For reference, Japan’s total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2024 were 1 Gt. In the STEPS, net emissions reductions reach 1.4 Gt CO2‑eq in 2035 (15% greater than in the CPS), but over the decade to 2035, an additional 600 Mt CO2-eq emissions are avoided compared to in the CPS. This is partly because the global average emissions intensity of electricity generation decreases more quickly in the STEPS than in the CPS, and is over 10% lower than in the CPS in 2035.

In the NZE Scenario, EVs contribute to cumulative net GHG emissions savings of 13 Gt CO2-eq from 2025-2035, 80% higher than the emissions savings in the CPS and about 70% higher than in the STEPS. The higher levels of EV adoption in the NZE Scenario are amplified by lower emissions associated with electricity generation: the global average emissions intensity of electricity generation in 2035 in the NZE Scenario is 70% lower than in the STEPS.

The electrification of cars is the main driver of emissions reductions across all scenarios. However, in the NZE Scenario heavy-duty electric vehicles, including trucks and buses, are responsible for avoiding over 2 Gt CO2-eq over the next decade – more than 15% of the cumulative emissions savings from EVs. In the CPS and STEPS, electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) avoid 0.9 Gt CO2-eq and 1.1 Gt CO2-eq, respectively.