Global coal trade reached a new all-time high in 2024, with total volumes estimated to be 1.55 Bt, surpassing the 1.5 Bt mark for the first time. Thermal coal trade rose by 28 Mt to reach 1 180 Mt. This growth was primarily driven by strong import demand in Asia, especially from China. The country experienced growth in imports, with coal imports reaching new highs. Imports increased by 14% up to 548 Mt, resulting in total annual imports surpassing 500 Mt for the first time. This volume is more than double that of India, the second-largest importer. Viet Nam also emerged as a key importer in 2024, surpassing Chinese Taipei to join the top five. Imports into Viet Nam are estimated to have increased by 16%, supported by strong demand and stable domestic production.

In 2024, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports grew by 6%, reaching 549 Mt, largely driven by strong demand from China. Australia also recorded a modest increase, with exports rising by 3% to 209 Mt. Colombia’s thermal coal exports grew by 8%, reaching 59 Mt. In contrast, Russia’s thermal coal trade faced headwinds. Western sanctions, logistical disruptions, and declining profitability contributed to a significant decline in Russian thermal coal exports.

Global trade in metallurgical coal reached an all-time high of 369 Mt in 2024, supported by strong demand from key steel-producing countries in Asia. Australia, the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal, maintained stable export volumes at 153 Mt. Mongolia, the second-largest exporter, recorded a 5% increase, reaching 56 Mt, with all volumes directed to the Chinese market. The United States and Russia increased exports by 11% each to 52 Mt and to 49 Mt respectively. In contrast, Canada experienced a decline in export volumes during the year.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect global coal trade to decline, reversing the upward trend observed in 2024. This shift will be led by China, where a combination of sluggish coal demand, healthy domestic production and high stockpiles is expected to reduce coal import by around 76 Mt. In India, the continued expansion of domestic thermal coal production is expected to significantly outpace demand growth in 2025. As a result, India’s reliance on thermal coal imports is projected to decline to just over 150 Mt. Japan and Korea are expected to see higher output from their nuclear fleets, and tempered demand due to economic uncertainty. Both factors reduce their combined demand for coal until April by 8 Mt and, for the full year, this figure is set to increase to 14 Mt. Among the biggest importers, only Viet Nam is likely to increase purchases this year by 4%.

Global trade of thermal coal is likely to decrease to 1.1 Bt, which is a decline of 7%. Following the demand of its main markets, Indonesian exports, which have served as a swing thermal coal supply source for Asian markets, are projected to decline by at least 10%. Colombian exports are also expected to fall by 11 Mt due to sustained low prices, making production less economically viable. Conversely, South African exports are forecast to increase slightly. This growth is driven by rising European demand, as low wind power generation in the first half of the year led to greater reliance on coal-fired power generation.

Additionally, 2025 is set to mark a reversal in metallurgical coal export growth, with global volumes projected to decline by 7% to 345 Mt. This contraction reflects broader economic uncertainty, which is dampening steel demand and, consequently, the consumption of metallurgical coal. The decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, the world’s largest steel producer. As China remains the sole destination for Mongolian metallurgical coal exports, Mongolia’s shipments are expected to fall in response to reduced import requirements. Australia is also forecast to see a decline of 5 Mt, due to repeated weather-related disruptions. Russian and United States exports are projected to decrease by around 4 and 6 Mt, respectively.

We forecast the global coal trade to decrease for a second consecutive year in 2026, marking an unprecedented occurrence in this century according to IEA statistics. The main driver of the expected downturn is an ongoing reduction in China’s import demand. Chinese coal imports are forecast to fall by an additional 14 Mt, exerting significant downward pressure on global trade volumes, which are expected to decline to 1.42 Bt. The expected oversupply in 2025 is likely to further weigh on global coal import demand. India’s imports are set to decrease down to around 219 Mt, as domestic production continues to expand and displace imported volumes. Coal demand continues to decline structurally across Europe and in Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei, leading to a sustained reduction in import requirements. Once again, among the world’s six largest coal importers, only Viet Nam is expected to register an increase in imports. Viet Nam’s coal imports are projected to rise to around 64 Mt in 2026, supported by sustained demand growth from the power sector.

The most significant decrease in export volumes is projected for Indonesia, where thermal coal exports are forecast to fall by 35 Mt compared to 2025 levels. Russian exports are also expected to decline, with a reduction of 3 Mt year-on-year. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to the evolving impact of international sanctions and government support. Australian thermal coal exports are projected to decrease by a further 1 Mt in 2026. As a result, total global thermal coal exports are expected to decline by 4% to 1 053 Mt, marking a continued contraction in international coal trade.

Global metallurgical coal exports are projected to stabilise, reaching 351 Mt. Australia is anticipated to gain 5 Mt, while United States exports are expected to rise by 1 Mt. For other countries, however, we do not expect changes.