Renewable transport

Renewable energy consumption in transport is forecast to increase from 5.5 EJ in 2025 to nearly 9 EJ in 2031, covering 6% of global transport energy demand. Growth is driven by countries looking to strengthen energy security, reduce fossil fuel import dependence, meet emissions reduction targets, and create economic development opportunities through greater renewable energy deployment in transport.  

Renewable electricity accounts for 45% of this increase, driven by greater deployment of electric vehicles, with one-quarter of new car sales in 2025 electric vehicles alone, and forecasted increases in the share of renewables in electricity generation. Regionally, China drives this growth, with continued deployment of light-duty passenger electric vehicles and medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks, and development of domestic battery supply chains, followed by Europe, with increasing availability of electric vehicles.

Liquid biofuels in road transport account for an additional 35% of this growth as overall fuel demand increases and mandates in several regions. Blending mandates and rising transport fuel consumption underpin this expansion. Leading ethanol growth are Brazil (40%) and India (25%), while the United States (65%) and Indonesia (15%) lead renewable diesel growth, and Indonesia (70%) and Brazil (20%) lead biodiesel expansion.1

Liquid biofuels in marine and aviation transport make up an additional 10% of this growth. Growth in marine transport is driven primarily by the European Union’s long-term emission reduction targets under the FuelEU Maritime regulations. In aviation transport, biojet fuel2 growth is driven by Europe, owing to long-term sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates in the United Kingdom and the European Union, followed by the United States due to federal and state-level policies and incentives.

Biomethane, renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels make up the remaining 10% of renewable energy growth in transport. Biomethane growth is driven by India, with expansion of gas-powered vehicles and off-take agreements, the United States, with credit-generating opportunities under federal and state-level low-carbon fuel standards and several European countries as distribution infrastructure continues to grow. Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuel growth is driven by the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”), Korea, and Europe.

The current conflict in the Middle East has disrupted oil supplies, prices and key shipping routes, increasing attention on domestically produced sustainable fuels. As a response, governments in North America, South America and Asia Pacific are accelerating new and previously announced liquid biofuel mandates and policy measures to reduce exposure to oil market volatility and improve transport fuel affordability in the short, medium and long term.

These market and policy shifts raise total liquid biofuel demand growth to 2030 by 40% (16 billion litres per year or 272 thousand barrels per day [kb/d]) compared with last year’s forecast. Ethanol accounts for 50% of the upward revision, driven by India achieving E20 blending five years ahead of schedule, adjustments to US federal ethanol waivers and higher US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) fuel obligations. Renewable diesel provides a further 30%, also supported by higher US RFS fuel obligations. Biodiesel and marine biodiesel account for the remainder, reflecting efforts to reduce fossil fuel import dependence in Southeast Asia and the continued implementation of the EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulations.

Total liquid biofuel demand in transport climbs nearly 30% on a volumetric basis, from 198 billion litres (3 401 kb/d or 5 EJ) in 2025 to 251 billion litres (4 331 kb/d or 6.6 EJ) in 2031. Liquid biofuels in road transport make up nearly 85% of this increase, as ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel consumption all continue to grow. Increases to mandates in Brazil, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Thailand, and higher renewable fuel volume obligations under the US RFS drive much of this growth. GHG intensity reduction requirements for transport fuels in Canada and Europe continue to expand demand as liquid biofuel blending remains a key pathway to meet regulatory obligations.

Aviation and maritime transport make up the remaining roughly 15%. Demand for SAF continues to grow, driven primarily by the ReFuelEU Aviation regulations, requiring a 6% SAF blend in jet fuel by 2030, and the United Kingdom’s SAF mandate, requiring 10% SAF blending by 2030. Mandates, supply-side obligations, and indicative and emissions-reduction based targets in several other countries such as Brazil, Japan, Singapore, India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Korea also drive demand globally. Meanwhile, demand for marine biodiesel stems primarily from the EU FuelEU Maritime regulations, requiring ships to reduce well-to-wake emission intensity, and followed by demand in Asia Pacific as the region services ships headed for Europe. 

With announced targets, mandates and supporting policies fully implemented, global liquid biofuel demand could increase to 333 billion litres (5 740 kb/d or 9.0 EJ), nearly 35% more than in the main case. One-third of the additional growth stems from continued support for higher ethanol blends in the United States, Brazil and India. Biodiesel and renewable diesel each contribute roughly 20%, owing to continued US RFS support for biodiesel and renewable diesel, and to higher biodiesel blending in Southeast Asia. Remaining growth results from the implementation of SAF mandates in several regions, such as the United Kingdom, the European Union, Brazil, India, Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, and from potential implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (voting was delayed from 2025 to December 2026).

Accelerated growth in liquid biofuels would keep progress aligned with the COP30 Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels - a global agreement endorsed by 32 countries to increase deployment of sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels by four times by 2035. However, achieving additional growth would require further policy, regulatory and financial support across the liquid biofuel supply chain in many regions such as ensuring adequate supply of sustainable and affordable feedstocks, development of new and emerging production pathways, amendments to regulations to continuously incentivise improvements to existing liquid biofuels while ensuring market access for new fuels and technologies, and short-, medium-, and long-term demand drivers such as public procurement, mandates and targets. 

In the main case, feedstock demand rises 30% between 2025 and 2031, from 650 million tonnes per year to more than 850 million tonnes per year. Sugars and starches provide more than four-fifths of the increase, driven by rising ethanol demand, mainly in Brazil, India and the United States. Vegetable oils, waste oils and fats, and other feedstocks meet remaining growth in global feedstock demand, but oil-based feedstocks record the fastest increase over the forecast period. Oil-based feedstocks expand fastest, driven by renewable diesel and biojet fuel support in North America; higher biodiesel blending and biojet production in Asia Pacific; Brazil’s biodiesel mandate; and European SAF and maritime requirements.

In the accelerated case, feedstock demand rises a further 15% above the main case, reaching 1 gigatonne per year by 2031. Sugar and starch use still grows the most, although this share declines to 65% as demand for vegetable oils, waste oils and fats rises as countries expand biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel production to meet road transport mandates, SAF targets, CORSIA requirements and, if adopted, the IMO Net-Zero Framework. Intensifying competition for these feedstocks, particularly vegetable oils, is likely to increase the need for new supply sources and conversion pathways such as alcohol-to-jet, using established ethanol supply chains, and Fischer-Tropsch using non-traditional feedstocks such as low-grade wood residues.

Liquid biofuels can deliver substantial emissions reductions across transport, but performance varies by feedstock, production process and supply chain. Robust sustainability frameworks are therefore essential to verify lifecycle GHG savings and limit adverse land, water and biodiversity impacts.

Performance-based standards and GHG thresholds already cover around 80% of global liquid biofuel demand. However, countries without domestic frameworks may struggle to demonstrate environmental benefits, manage unintended environmental impacts, and meet emerging trade requirements, weakening investor confidence in projects and access to global markets. Adapting established performance-based systems to national conditions and international requirements can provide clearer investment signals, support exports, and help ensure sustainable growth.