Biogases

Global production of biogases (both biogas and its purified stream, biomethane) reached 1 785 petajoules (PJ) in 2025, of which 78% was biogas. Production continues to increase in most countries/regions, with global output forecast to grow 18% over 2026-2031 in the main case and 35% in the accelerated case.

Biomethane production drives this growth, with output projected to almost double between 2025 and 2031. Its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure and end-use equipment supports a wider range of applications. In contrast, biogas production is expected to fall 2% over the forecast period.

Production of biogases continues to expand, backed by a widening range of regulatory frameworks and their introduction in a growing number of countries. Policy support aims to meet the key objectives of 1) enhancing energy security by providing a domestic energy source that diversifies supply and reduces fuel import dependence; 2) decarbonising the energy system, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors; 3) mitigating methane emissions from livestock and organic waste; 4) fostering rural economic development; and 5) improving waste management practices.

In 2025, the European Union accounted for nearly 38% of global biogas and biomethane production, and this share rises to 44% when the United Kingdom is included. For biomethane alone, EU production represented 38% of global output, and the United States was responsible for an additional 38%.

The cases of India and the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) illustrate the time required for biomethane markets to develop. Although both countries began introducing dedicated support policies in 2017 and 2018, market growth remained limited for several years. However, recent production trends indicate that the sector has expanded beyond initial development and is showing meaningful market growth, with biomethane production projected to increase almost ninefold in India by 2031 and to double in China. Elsewhere, including in Brazil and Canada, governments are now beginning to put comparable policy frameworks in place. While these markets are at an earlier stage of development and their growth trajectory remains more uncertain, biomethane production is nevertheless projected to more than double by 2031.

Growth in several mature markets is slowing down after years of record-level expansion. In Germany and Denmark, ongoing regulatory changes have created uncertainty and are weighing on investment in new projects. In the United States, growth is shifting from transport towards thermal applications, which typically offer less predictable revenue streams. This slowdown in mature markets is partly offset by growth in some emerging markets, including large new markets (e.g. India, China and Brazil) as well as smaller ones in a number of European countries and in Southeast Asia.

Developing efficient feedstock supply chains at scale remains a key challenge to accelerate biogas and biomethane market growth. Recent IEA geospatial analysis finds that waste and residues could sustainably produce more than 810 bcme1 (around 29 exajoules [EJ]) of biogases annually – enough to meet almost 20% of global natural gas demand in 2024. While feedstock availability is substantial, unlocking this potential requires supply chains for feedstock collection, aggregation and storage at scale, the development of stable feedstock markets and closer integration of biogas and biomethane production with agricultural activities.

Managing and valorising digestate, the main co-product of anaerobic digestion, also remains a critical challenge. Technology development is focused on reducing production costs by improving processability and increasing yields from cellulosic materials, and by standardising plant designs. At the same time, project developers are pursuing economies of scale by constructing larger, more efficient plants.

In the period 2020-2025, EU biomethane production has increased 19% per year on average, reaching 4.2 bcme (151 PJ) in 2025, while biogas has remained broadly stable at just below 15 bcme (534 PJ). The United Kingdom adds 2 bcme (75 PJ) of biogas and 0.8 bcme (28 PJ) of biomethane to production in the European region. Overall, market dynamics vary considerably among countries, with growth falling into three main categories: dynamic; emerging; and slow/stagnating.

EU biogas and biomethane production is forecast to exceed 780 PJ/yr by 2030, corresponding to around 62% of the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm of biomethane by 2030, if biogas and biomethane are considered together as per the European Commission’s revised REPowerEU tracking. Growth is expected to continue as the sector develops in more emerging European countries, given that feedstock potential remains largely untapped in most of them.

The United States has experienced remarkable exponential growth over the last decade, especially in biomethane – also called renewable natural gas (RNG) – primarily for road transport use. RNG consumption has risen almost 3.5-fold in the last five years, accelerating since 2022. RNG production in 2025 is estimated at around 145 PJ, making the United States the world’s largest producer country and accounting for 38% of global production.

State low-carbon fuel standards and the federal RFS, complemented by financial support in the form of tax credits, provide generous support and stable revenues, which have driven market expansion. As a result, RNG made up 94% of the fuel share in natural gas vehicle fleets in 2025 (up to 99% in California), indicating a high degree of technical saturation in transport sector use.

Uptake in thermal applications remains slower than in transport but is gaining increased attention from policymakers and gas utilities, as developers seek to diversify beyond transport into utility procurement, corporate gas supply and industrial heat. Legislative support is expanding: 37 states have enacted measures to promote RNG use in residential and commercial sectors, including mandatory or voluntary blending targets and cost-recovery mechanisms for utilities.

Overall, the United States remains one of the world’s most dynamic RNG markets, but the 2025-2026 policy environment is steering the sector towards more demanding higher-quality projects with robust feedstock access, low carbon intensity and diversified offtake.

China, India and Brazil share several features in their biogas market development. All three are large economies with emerging green gas sectors, supported by ambitious public policies that have been strengthened over the last three years. At the same time, they face similar challenges, including limited gas infrastructure and the need to establish robust feedstock supply chains. Despite these constraints, national and international investment is flowing into all three countries, supporting the development of dynamic project pipelines.

India

The Indian government has been implementing a series of policies to support the production of biomethane (also called compressed biogas [CBG] in its compressed form) since 2018 and more intensively over the last three years. In 2026, the government released a Unified Scheme for Compressed Biogas that integrates different programmes across the CBG supply chain and provides robust support for the next ten years. The comprehensive regulatory framework includes support for feedstock aggregation, incentives for digestate co-product valorisation and measures to facilitate CBG distribution through the gas grid.

Most CBG produced in India is used in the transport sector, supported by rapid expansion of the compressed natural gas [CNG] vehicle fleet. Domestic use of CBG, also included in India’s CBG blending obligation, is expected to rise as injection into city gas grids increases as networks are extended.

The announcement of new projects, now consolidated in the central Gobardhan registry, shows promising accelerated growth in upcoming years.

China

As part of its strategy to develop industrial scale plants, China’s 14th Five‑Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (2021-2025) called for the construction of large demonstration plants in regions with strong agricultural and livestock resources.

More recently, the new 15th Five‑Year Plan (FYP) framework for 2026-2030 includes biomass as an energy source to be developed according to local conditions, pivoting from using biogas for power generation to producing gas (biomethane) and heat.

While biogases are still used mainly in buildings and for power generation (88% of consumption), industry sector demand for biogas and bio-natural gas (BNG) is rising, for both energy and chemical applications. Export-oriented Chinese industries are increasingly demanding biomethane as a way to shrink their carbon footprint and reduce pressure from new trading measures such as the European CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism).

China’s biogas and BNG output is expected to accelerate as newly installed capacity comes online over the forecast period. In the main-case forecast, combined biogas and biomethane production rises 14% over 2026-2031, and biomethane output alone is projected to double.

Brazil

Building on its extensive experience in biofuel development, Brazil has included biomethane in its national Fuel of the Future strategy, creating one of the most advanced policy frameworks outside of Europe.

The country’s main policy instrument is a decarbonisation obligation based on biomethane use starting in 2026, requiring natural gas producers and importers to reduce the emissions of their gas by including a share of biomethane in their supply or by purchasing biomethane certificates.

In the main-case forecast, combined production of biogas and biomethane is expected to grow 53% by 2031. Biomethane alone could rise from below 14 PJ in 2025 to over 41 PJ in 2031 in our main case, and to over 62 PJ in the accelerated case with faster market response.

Southeast Asia remains one of the world's most promising biogas regions owing to its large agricultural base, extensive livestock production, food processing industries and, importantly, its large palm oil sector. Feedstock potential for producing biogases is estimated at almost 65 bcme (around 2 300 PJ).

Overall, Southeast Asian countries showed combined production of almost 80 PJ of biogas and biomethane in 2025. However, the model is transitioning from traditional biogas towards biomethane-led decarbonisation, with Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia emerging as the most relevant markets.

At the same time, a new wave of liquefied biomethane or bio-liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is emerging in Southeast Asia. These investments are being spurred by growing demand for low-emissions fuels in maritime shipping, opportunities to export biomethane to Singapore and the potential to displace natural gas imports in domestic markets.

While the outlook is promising, these markets remain at an early stage of development, and the pace of growth will depend on, among other factors, the implementation of supportive policies across the region.

Recent regulatory frameworks aiming to decarbonise the maritime sector, such as FuelEU Maritime in the European Union, are creating new opportunities for biomethane use, in the form of bio-LNG.

Liquefied biomethane can be used as a drop-in fuel in LNG-fuelled and dual-fuel vessels that can switch between LNG and conventional fuel oils, and shipping companies can take advantage of existing LNG tanks and bunkering infrastructure, avoiding major changes, and benefit from the operational expertise already established for methane as a maritime fuel.