Renewable electricity

Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to decline 11% in 2026, ending 21 consecutive years of record-breaking annual expansion, but are still at the second-highest level ever registered. This contraction results mainly from a deceleration in People’s Republic of China’s (hereafter, “China”) solar PV deployment, which has been the engine of global PV expansion, making up 60% of additions worldwide since 2023. Chinese solar PV additions were almost 55% lower in the first nine months of 2026 than in the same period in 2025, reflecting weakening project economics with the government shifting its support framework from fixed remuneration to competitive auctions in June 2025.

China’s wind capacity additions are expected to slow in 2026, but much less sharply than solar PV, as the commissioning of large-scale projects partly cushions the impact of recent policy reforms. Faster wind deployment in Europe and the United States offsets China’s slowdown, leaving global wind capacity additions broadly unchanged from 2025.

Global annual renewable capacity additions in 2026-2031 are expected to average almost 800 GW/yr in the main case forecast, 57% above the 2020-2025 average. Following the decline in 2026, China’s annual capacity additions recover gradually, but remain 13% below the 2025 level in 2031. In July 2026, China released its 15th Five‑Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, setting an indicative cumulative target of at least 2 800 GW of wind and solar PV (AC) capacity by 2030. This implies around 190 GW of combined annual deployment of wind and solar PV (in alternating current [AC]) through 2030. Nevertheless, the main case expects China to exceed these policy targets by almost 30%, continuing its established trend of surpassing the ambitions of previous Five‑Year Plans.

Outside of China, annual renewable capacity additions are forecast to increase 27% between 2025 and 2031, mainly in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) as strong policy momentum and growing energy security concerns accelerate deployment. Led by solar PV, annual renewable capacity additions across India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Eurasia are projected to match those of advanced economies over the forecast period for the first time.

India’s robust growth continues to benefit from a decade of proactive policy support that has partly cushioned the electricity sector from the impacts of the energy crisis. In both the ASEAN and sub-Saharan African markets, dual drivers underpin growth: Two policy responses underpin growth: first, some governments introduced more ambitious renewable energy targets following the Middle East crisis; second, others adopted measures to accelerate the implementation of previously announced targets. In addition, consumers increasingly adopt decentralised rooftop solar PV systems to mitigate the impacts of daily load shedding and grid unreliability.

In advanced economies, renewable capacity additions plateau following strong acceleration since 2021 as grid integration, financing and permitting challenges mount. In Europe, annual renewable capacity additions are forecast to average around 100 GW over 2026-2031, remaining consistent with 2025. In the United States average renewable capacity additions are slightly higher compared with the 2025 level to accommodate rapidly growing electricity demand, mainly from data centres. Meanwhile, Asia‑Pacific annual capacity trends show gradual acceleration relative to 2025 – particularly in Korea and Japan – owing to a series of policy improvements and market reforms.

Renewable power capacity is projected to expand over 4 770 GW between 2026 and 2031, making up over 80% of total global power capacity additions. This expansion over the forecast period marks a 57% acceleration compared with 2020-2025.

Solar PV remains the key growth driver, accounting for three-quarters of global renewable capacity expansion to 2031. Utility-scale solar PV capacity is forecast to expand 2 075 GW during 2026-2031, while distributed applications – residential, commercial, industrial and off-grid systems – are set to grow an additional 1 530 GW.

Low generation costs relative to other renewable and conventional technologies, combined with robust policy support, make solar PV economically attractive for developers, businesses and consumers alike. Furthermore, faster permitting and broader social acceptance have made solar PV the preferred technology for many utility-scale developers, even for situations in which alternatives such as onshore wind cost less. Distributed solar PV is also expanding rapidly as consumers across an increasing number of locations deploy self-consumption systems to reduce electricity bills and/or enhance electricity service reliability.

China’s declining share of global renewable capacity growth is shifting market focus to India, the second-largest contributor to global expansion. China accounted for over 60% of global renewable capacity expansion in 2025; however, its share is projected to moderate to 53% over the forecast period. By contrast, India’s renewable capacity expansion between 2026 and 2031 is expected to be 2.6 times greater than in the previous six-year period, almost doubling its contribution to global growth to nearly 8.5%.

ASEAN, MENA and sub-Saharan Africa are collectively tripling their pace of renewable capacity growth over the next six years, primarily installing solar PV systems. Driven by the rapid implementation of ambitious targets across many ASEAN countries following the recent energy crisis, the ASEAN region is projected to have the highest annual solar PV additions by 2031, surpassing Latin America, MENA and sub-Saharan Africa over the forecast period.

Annual renewable capacity additions in Latin America remain above historical levels despite declining from their 2026 peak, driven by slower growth in Brazil while Mexico, Chile and Colombia remain broadly stable. Meanwhile, in the MENA region, Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate its renewable expansion fivefold between 2026 and 2031, followed by the United Arab Emirates, marking a structural step-change in the region’s energy market. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth remains led by South Africa and Nigeria, which account for almost half of  the region’s new capacity.

Globally, renewable electricity growth remains broadly in line with last year’s forecast.1 The small upward revision of 2%, or just 75 GW, reflects recent policy, regulatory and market developments since October 2025. China’s forecast is reduced by the largest margin, nearly 116 GW. However, more positive outlooks in ASEAN, India, the United States, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America offset the slowdown in China. The largest upward revision in percentage terms is for sub-Saharan Africa, where solar PV increasingly provides an alternative for millions of consumers to secure electricity service during rolling blackouts.

China: The downward revision stems from solar PV additions falling more than over 50% year-on-year during January-September as the shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions eroded the profitability of utility-scale and distributed projects. Onshore wind, by contrast, held broadly at last year's record level and has been revised upwards, supported by policies favouring large-scale megabase projects and by capture prices almost 40% above solar PV’s.

Upward revisions to hydropower and concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) reflect measures to ease system integration, including accelerated pumped-storage approvals and more ambitious CSP targets announced in December 2025. Offshore wind has been revised downwards due to cost increases following the shift to competitive auctions and limited provincial-level support, while bioenergy uptake has slowed since 2024 amid weaker waste-to-energy growth.

European Union: Like last year, we are revising our forecast for distributed solar PV and offshore wind downwards, while utility-scale solar PV goes up to reflect higher auction volumes or award rates in Germany, Italy, Poland and France. The distributed solar PV outlook is revised downwards for all major EU markets due to a roll-back in support (i.e. the discontinuation of net metering in the Netherlands; EEG2027 feed-in tariff and net-billing cuts in Germany; lower subsidies and gross metering in Poland; and the phaseout of renovation rebates in Italy).

For offshore wind, forecasts have been revised down in Europe primarily because of failed or repeatedly delayed tenders in Germany, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands. For instance, Germany's August 2025 round drew zero bids; the Netherlands' 2025 Nederwiek I-A tender received no applications; and Belgium's contracts for difference (CfD) auction was deferred from Q4 2024 towards end-2026. However, several countries are revising their offshore wind auction designs to attract bidders. For instance, following Denmark’s failed 3‑GW tender in December 2024, the government redesigned the auction and awarded 1.8 GW across two sites, with bids of EUR 67.42/MWh and EUR 72.50/MWh. As both projects are expected to be commissioned beyond the forecast period, they are not included in this forecast.

United States: The solar PV forecast has been revised 45% upwards because the pipeline is larger than expected for financed utility-scale projects qualifying for tax credits before the phase-out in 2027. Rapidly rising electricity demand from data centres further strengthens the outlook, as solar PV technologies can bring new generation online very quickly while supply-chain constraints continue to delay gas turbine availability. The federal court decision restoring the 5% cost-based safe harbour as an alternative to the physical work test provides a smaller additional boost, reopening a faster route for some wind and large solar projects to qualify for the 30% investment tax credit (ITC)/production tax credit (PTC) ahead of the 4 July deadline.

India: While the renewable capacity outlook has been revised upwards from last year, trends vary across technologies. Solar PV underpins stronger growth, supported by rapid recent deployment, a large pipeline of awarded projects and expanding uptake of rooftop systems backed by policy support. Pumped-storage hydropower is also gaining momentum thanks to more efficient administrative processes and an expanding project pipeline. In contrast, onshore wind is losing ground amid weaker deployment, limited auction volumes and increasing competition from solar PV paired with storage.

ASEAN: Across the upward-revised ASEAN markets, distributed solar PV leads growth, followed by utility-scale, owing to improved market access (through direct and virtual power purchase agreements [PPAs], and clearer PPA frameworks); new or expanded support schemes (net-billing feed-in tariffs [FiTs], and higher net-metering caps and rooftop quotas); and strong auction results and subscriptions. Robust commercial and industrial projects and data-centre demand reinforce the trend. In addition, the forecast for off-grid solar PV has been revised upwards because consumers are increasingly installing rooftop solar systems outside of policy schemes to improve their electricity service.

Sub-Saharan Africa: A 42‑GW rise in distributed PV uptake over the forecast period, including rooftop and off-grid systems, has boosted the total solar forecast upwards by nearly 36 GW, while utility-scale was downgraded by nearly 7 GW due to a lack financing and grid infrastructure challenges. Based on recent trade data, the largest forecast revision is for off-grid solar PV systems.

Middle East and North Africa: The forecast remains broadly unchanged, as stronger corporate demand, project expansions and higher targets offset slower renewable hydrogen development and project delays linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

In 2023, nearly 200 countries at COP28 pledged to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, including an objective to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. In the main case, current policies, market developments and cost trends boost cumulative renewable energy capacity to around 9 710 GW by 2030, a 2.6-fold increase from 2022, in line with last year’s forecast. While this growth marks significant progress, it remains below the level required to meet the tripling target.

Based on this trajectory, the world would reach the tripling milestone only around 2032, highlighting persistent ambition and implementation gaps. Based on the main-case trajectory, the world would reach the tripling milestone only around 2032, highlighting persistent ambition and implementation gaps. In the accelerated case, renewable capacity growth is around 20% higher by 2030, bringing the world to 90% of the COP28 goal (or a 2.8-fold increase from 2022) and enabling it to reach the tripling target in 2031. The accelerated case assumes that governments rapidly address key challenges related to policy design, grid integration, permitting and financing, allowing substantially faster deployment and bringing the target within reach.

1. Expand and improve auction and revenue-stabilisation schemes

   Comprehensive, predictable procurement programmes are the most common requirement in all accelerated cases. Many countries would need higher auction volumes, more regular auction schedules and improved contract designs, for instance including price indexation, to increase revenue certainty and expand the pipeline of bankable projects. This implies the wider use of contracts for difference (CfDs), long-term procurement frameworks and support mechanisms that better reflect market conditions, particularly for technologies facing increasing merchant-price exposure. In countries such as Denmark, India, the Philippines, Romania, South Africa and the United Kingdom, more effective auction frameworks and support schemes could unlock additional accelerated-case growth by increasing the share of awarded projects reaching financial close and moving into the construction phase.

2. Accelerate grid infrastructure development and connection reforms

   Grid constraints emerge as one of the most important barriers in most accelerated cases. Faster construction of transmission and distribution infrastructure, shorter connection timelines, queue management reforms and better grid planning are necessary to enable more solar PV and wind projects to be connected and operated. Such measures could unlock additional growth in the accelerated case, particularly in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, India, the Netherlands, Serbia, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. Without faster network expansion, increased renewable energy deployment could mean greater curtailment, longer delays and weaker project economics.

3. Scale up storage capacity and system flexibility

   As renewable energy penetration rises, storage and system flexibility become increasingly important in the accelerated case. Many countries identify batteries, pumped-storage hydropower, long-duration storage, demand response and flexible electricity consumption as critical enablers to manage system integration, reduce curtailment and improve capture prices. Stronger policy support for storage and flexibility could therefore unlock additional renewable energy growth in the accelerated case, particularly in Australia, Chile, China, India, Italy, Spain and several European markets.

4. Streamline permitting and project approval processes

   Accelerating deployment also requires better project delivery, not just larger project pipelines. Many countries have already introduced permitting reforms, but faster implementation, shorter approval times, and renewable-acceleration areas or one-stop-shop processes are needed. Faster permitting is especially important for onshore wind, utility-scale solar PV and transmission projects, as administrative procedures continue to delay deployment. In the accelerated case, taking these measures could unlock additional renewable capacity growth, particularly in Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Korea, the Philippines, Poland and Viet Nam.

5. Strengthen corporate procurement and market-based demand

   As support schemes evolve and electricity demand from data centres and other large consumers grows, further expansion of corporate PPAs and direct procurement mechanisms could support accelerated deployment. Stronger corporate procurement frameworks can improve bankability, reduce reliance on government support and provide long-term demand signals for renewable investment. The accelerated case therefore assumes greater use of these mechanisms, particularly in Canada, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, the United States and Viet Nam.

6. Support distributed solar PV and consumer participation

   Several countries require stronger uptake of rooftop solar PV, energy communities, self-consumption and behind-the-meter storage. Policy measures include investment support, more attractive self-consumption frameworks, smart meters and greater exposure to more granular price signals, simplified connection procedures and better access to financing. Taken together, these measures could unlock the additional distributed solar PV growth envisaged in the accelerated case, particularly in Australia, Brazil, India, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan and Poland.

The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to expand from 33% in 2025 to 43% by 2031, primarily through rapid solar PV and wind expansion. Over the same period, wind and solar PV together account for over 80% of global electricity generation growth.

Rapid solar PV and wind deployment is reshaping the global renewable generation mix. Variable renewables overtook hydropower for the first time in 2024 and accounted for around 17% of global electricity generation in 2025, compared with hydropower’s 14%. By 2031, solar PV alone is expected to surpass hydropower, making up 16% of global generation, while wind generation rises to around 12%, broadly matching the hydropower contribution.

Renewable energy trends vary considerably across regions. In China, renewables are set to provide nearly half of electricity generation by 2031, up from 37% in 2025, with variable renewable energy (VRE) contributing to more than one-third. Although hydropower remains an important energy source, its share declines from 13% to 11% and it is overtaken by rises in both solar PV (from 11% to 20%) and wind (11% to 15%) during the forecast period, making solar PV the country's largest single renewable energy source.

At these levels, China is expected to exceed its 15th Five‑Year-Plan targets for non-fossil electricity generation and variable renewable generation in the power mix. In the United States, the renewable share increases from 24% to 32%, with solar PV nearly doubling from 8% to 14% and overtaking wind (11%) by 2031.

In Latin America, hydropower remains the dominant renewable energy source, although its share decreases from 40% to 35% by 2031. Nevertheless, the region maintains the world's highest renewable share at 68%, while solar PV becomes the main growth segment, expanding from 8% to 15% of generation to overtake wind.

In Asia Pacific excluding China, the renewable share rises from 24% to 34% by 2031. Solar PV makes up most of the increase, with its share doubling from 7% to 16% to surpass hydropower and become the region's largest renewable generation source, led by strong growth in India.

Europe retains the highest VRE penetration among major regions, as wind and solar PV together increase from 27% to 43% of generation by 2031. Both technologies individually exceed hydropower, with wind making up 23% of generation and solar PV 19%.

In sub-Saharan Africa, hydropower remains the largest renewable generation source, accounting for almost one-third of electricity supply in 2031. At the same time, solar PV and wind shares more than double from around 3% today to 11% for solar PV and 7% for wind.

Renewable generation also expands in the Middle East and North Africa, where the renewable share increases from 6% to 15%, led by solar PV. In Eurasia, the use of renewables rises more modestly from 19% to 23%, with hydropower remaining dominant at around 17% of electricity generation.