Energy security and renewables

Between 2010 and 2025, the global renewable energy supply nearly doubled owing to rapid growth in the electricity, heat and transport sectors. Over the same period, however, the fossil fuel supply increased a further 18%, as renewable expansion was not sufficient to fully meet rising global energy demand. Fossil fuels therefore continue to make up most of the global energy supply.

Our analysis uses 2010 as the baseline, reflecting the start of large-scale deployment of modern renewable technologies, particularly solar PV and wind, while also capturing the continued expansion of renewable heat and biofuels.

Renewables have substantially reduced the amount of fossil fuels needed to meet growing energy demand. In 2025, their use avoided 41 EJ of fossil fuel consumption, broadly equivalent to India’s total energy supply.

Without the expansion of renewables since 2010, global fossil fuel demand in 2025 would have been around 8% higher, requiring an additional:

• 615 million tonnes of coal equivalent (mtce), accounting for 43% of avoided fossil fuel demand.

• 515 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, broadly equivalent to Europe’s annual gas consumption and representing 45% of the total.

• 2.4 million barrels of oil a day (mb/d), equivalent to nearly 3% of global oil demand and accounting for the remaining 12%.

Between 2010 and 2025, cumulative fossil fuel savings reached 275 EJ. Renewables avoided 116 EJ of coal and 120 EJ of natural gas demand between 2010 and 2025. These savings stemmed primarily from rapid expansion of renewable electricity, which increasingly displaced coal- and gas-fired generation. Oil savings were considerably lower at 39 EJ, reflecting the slower uptake of renewable alternatives for transport and other oil-dependent end uses.

As renewable energy deployment has expanded, avoided fossil fuel consumption has increased steadily. Absent the growing use of renewables since 2010, global natural gas demand would have been 11% higher in 2025 and coal demand 9% higher. The impact on oil demand was smaller, at around 3%. Renewables have therefore made their largest contribution to energy supply security in the power sector, where they directly reduce reliance on fossil fuel-based generation.

Almost 70% of the fossil fuel reduction resulting from the use of renewables between 2010 and 2025 occurred in the power sector, reflecting the rapid expansion of renewable electricity technologies. Renewable energy use in heat accounted for a further 24% of total savings.

In the power sector, renewables have reduced coal and natural gas demand by broadly similar volumes globally, although their relative contribution varies by region depending on the composition of the electricity mix. Fossil fuel savings in heat are more diversified, reflecting the wider range of fuels used in the sector: renewables have displaced comparable volumes of coal and oil, while natural gas savings have been larger. In transport, biofuels have primarily reduced demand for oil-based fuels.

Avoided fossil fuel demand has grown most quickly in the power sector, thanks to solar PV, wind and hydropower expansion. As a result, electricity generation accounts for an increasing share of the total fossil fuel savings delivered by renewables. Progress has been slower in heat and transport, as renewable energy uptake depends more heavily on the deployment of end-use technologies, supporting infrastructure and targeted policies.

Over 2010-2025, the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”) registered the largest fossil fuel savings with increased renewable energy uptake, reflecting the scale of its energy demand and the rapidity of its renewable energy expansion. The United States, the European Union and India also achieved significant savings, as higher renewable energy use reduced the need for additional fossil fuel supplies.

In most regions, the power sector accounted for the majority of fossil fuel savings, reflecting rapid renewable electricity expansion. A notable exception was India, where renewable heat produced a larger share of savings owing to the importance of industrial heat demand. Biofuels made a smaller contribution globally but accounted for a greater share of fossil fuel savings in the United States, Brazil and Indonesia.

As most fossil fuel savings are delivered in the power sector, the fuels displaced reflect the composition of regional electricity systems. In China, where coal dominates power generation, renewables have primarily reduced coal demand. In the United States and the European Union, where natural gas plays a larger role in the electricity mix, renewables have delivered greater natural gas savings.

India recorded the largest relative reductions in fossil fuel demand from renewable energy deployment. Without the expansion of renewables since 2010, fossil fuel demand would have been almost 14% higher in 2025. Meanwhile, it would have been roughly 13% greater in Latin America and 12% stronger in the European Union.

At the global level, renewables have reduced coal and natural gas demand by similar proportions. If the use of renewables had not risen considerably since 2010, coal demand would have been around 9% higher in 2025 and natural gas demand 11% stronger. However, relative impacts vary across regions according to energy system composition.

In China and India, renewables have had the largest relative impact on natural gas demand, reflecting the comparatively small role of gas in their energy mixes. In China, natural gas demand would have been around 32% higher without renewables, compared with 10% for coal. Nevertheless, coal accounted for the largest volume of avoided fossil fuel demand because of its dominant role in China’s energy supply.

In the European Union, renewables have had the greatest relative impact on coal demand, which would have been almost 27% higher in 2025. This reflects both the displacement of coal by renewables and the broader decline in coal consumption, which increases the relative contribution of avoided demand.