Average wholesale electricity prices in the first half of 2025 rose year-on-year in various regions, including Europe, the United States and Japan, amid higher gas prices. By contrast, countries such as India and Australia saw lower wholesale prices compared to the previous year in the face of varying demand and generation trends, among other factors. At the same time, a number of markets continued to observe an increase in the occurrence of negative electricity prices. A detailed discussion of negative electricity prices and their drivers can be found in our Electricity 2025 report. 

In the European Union, wholesale electricity prices averaged around USD 90/MWh in the first half of 2025, about 30% higher compared to the same period in 2024. During H1 2025, natural gas prices were on average about 20% above the levels observed through 2024. The cost of carbon allowances under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) increased from an average of about EUR 65 per tonne of CO₂ (t CO₂) in H1 2024 to around EUR 70/t CO₂ in H1 2025. At the same time, lower year-on-year electricity generation from wind and hydropower during this period boosted fossil-fired generation, which further contributed to higher power prices. Latest futures prices in the European Union average USD 80/MWh for 2026, indicating a decline of around 15% compared to 2025.

Negative prices are becoming more common in many markets across Europe. The share of hours with negative prices on the wholesale market reached 8-9% in the first half of the year in countries such as Germany, Netherlands and Spain – up from 4-5% in 2024.

Germany saw an increase in wholesale electricity prices in H1 2025 (+37%), with average prices slightly below USD 100/MWh. In addition to the higher gas prices compared to 2024, the significant reduction in wind power generation due to less favourable weather conditions also contributed to the price rise. To meet demand, Germany had to rely more on gas- and coal-fired power generation, which put upward pressure on power prices. German futures contracts for 2026 indicate a similar price level to 2025. The premium over French prices remains, reaching an average USD 30-40/MWh during the summer period.

In France, average wholesale electricity prices rose around 45% y-o-y in H1 2025 to USD 73/MWh. A colder winter contrasted with comparatively mild conditions in 2024, which led to higher heating use, raising electricity demand. While hydropower declined in the first six months of 2025 following a strong performance in H1 2024, nuclear output continued to grow, helping to moderate price rises. French futures for 2026 indicate stable price levels similar to those in 2025.

In the United Kingdom, wholesale electricity prices rose by 40% y-o-y in H1 2025, averaging just under USD 115/MWh. The UK’s electricity system, where gas-fired power generation makes up around 30% of total generation, was particularly affected by colder weather and reduced wind output in early 2025. This led to an increase in the use of gas-fired plants to meet demand, contributing to the rise in wholesale prices. UK futures prices for 2026 indicate about 10% lower prices on average compared to 2025.

Electricity prices in the Nordics remained the lowest in Europe, falling by more than 20% y‑o‑y in H1 2025 to an average of about USD 40/MWh. This decline was primarily due to an increase in wind power generation in the region and higher hydropower output, which together boosted electricity supply. A slight fall in demand also contributed to lower wholesale prices. Futures prices indicate a stable outlook for 2026, with average prices remaining close to current levels.

In the United States, wholesale electricity prices rose by around 40% y-o-y in H1 2025, averaging around USD 48/MWh. However, this increase was from a low base, as prices in H1 2024 were the lowest for a first half of the year since 2020. Rising natural gas prices exerted upward pressure on US wholesale electricity prices, where gas-fired output makes about 40% of total electricity generation. Colder winter conditions and instances of extreme weather in several regions also contributed to higher prices by raising heating-related electricity usage. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook price projections for 2026 indicate similar price levels to 2025.

In Japan, wholesale electricity prices were up by about 15% y-o-y in H1 2025, averaging USD 76/MWh. The rise in LNG prices increased generation costs, applying upward pressure on wholesale prices. Warmer than average temperatures in the spring and early summer heatwaves, combined with a cold winter, also contributed to higher electricity prices. Futures prices indicate a rise in wholesale electricity prices in 2026, to an average of USD 87/MWh.

In the first half of 2025, Australian average wholesale electricity prices fell by 6% y-o-y to USD 68/MWh. This is despite periods of extreme weather, including heatwaves in the southeast of the country. Two key factors that contributed to lower prices were a decline in the number of high-priced hours and an increase in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. In Q1 2025, the number of 30-minute intervals in which the wholesale electricity price exceeded AUD 5 000/MWh fell to 11, down from 26 in Q1 2024. Grid-scale solar and wind set prices in 15% of intervals in Q1 2025, up from 10% of intervals in Q1 2024, contributing to a lower average wholesale electricity price. Battery output also rose, by 86%, as new storage capacity came online, helping to mitigate against high-priced events by displacing more expensive gas and coal generation during peak demand. Futures prices for 2026 are similar to the price levels observed in H1 2025.

In India, electricity prices fell by about 15% y-o-y in the first half of 2025, averaging USD 51/MWh. Despite this decline, prices remain above pre-2022 levels. A drop in seaborne thermal coal prices to a four-year low eased input costs for coal-fired generation. On the supply-side, increased availability from thermal and renewable capacity additions strengthened market liquidity and exerted downward pressure on prices. Robust output from low-emissions sources in May, combined with unseasonal rains that increased hydropower output, contributed to near-zero prices during several time periods on 25 May.

Electricity prices for energy-intensive industries continued to vary significantly across regions. After declining since their 2022 peak, they are expected to rise year-on-year in 2025 in the European Union, driven by higher wholesale price levels. The average EU price this year is expected to be roughly twice that in the United States and about 50% higher than in China. By comparison, in 2019, prices in the European Union were approximately 50% higher than in the United States and 20% higher than in China.