Unpacking the IEA Global EV Outlook 2022: The India Story

The ‘Forum for Decarbonising Transport’ (an initiative of NITI Aayog and WRI India), in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), is organizing a webinar on ‘Unpacking the IEA Global EV Outlook 2022: The India Story’ on Friday, 29th July 2022 from 4:00-5:30 pm IST under the NDC- Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA).

The webinar brings together government and industry leaders, and EV experts to highlight the key findings of IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook, and to discuss some of the advances and challenges in India’s ambitious trajectory to become a global leader in the sector.

Key Questions:

• What are the roadblocks in achieving India’s target of 30% EV sales by 2030?
• How can India strengthen its local manufacturing capabilities
• How can the policy landscape be improved to catalyze EV adoption?
• What partnerships are needed to optimally tap the growing market opportunities?
• What are the key developments expected over the next year?

Keynote: Sudhendu Sinha, Adviser (Infrastructure Connectivity – Transport and Electric Mobility), NITI AAYOG

Presentation: Dr Elizabeth Connelly, Energy Technology and Transport Analyst, IEA

Panel Discussion

Moderator: Araceli Fernandez Pales, Head of Technology Innovation Unit, IEA

Speakers:

• Mr. Randheer Singh, Director-Electric Mobility, NITI Aayog
• Mr. Mahesh Babu, CEO, Switch Mobility
• Dr. Prabhjot Kaur, Founder and CEO, Esmito Solutions
• Mr. Dattatreya Gaur, MD & CEO, Bosch Global Software Technologies (TBC)
• Mr. Vivekananda Hallekere, CEO & Co-Founder, Bounce
• Mr. Pawan Mulukutla, Director, Integrated Transport, Electric Mobility and Hydrogen, WRI India

Government and industry experts discussed opportunities and challenges for the electrification of transport in India at a 29 July 2022 webinar, “Unpacking the IEA Global Electric Vehicle (EV) Outlook 2022: The India Story’’. The webinar was organised by the “Forum for Decarbonising Transport’’, an initiative of NITI Aayog and WRI India, in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the NDC - Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA). It was based on one of IEA’s flagship publications, the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook (GEVO), released in May 2022.

The panel discussion was moderated by Araceli Fernandez Pales, Head of IEA’s Technology Innovation Unit, and included Vivekananda Hallekere, CEO and Co-Founder of Bounce, Dr. Rashi Gupta, Founder and Managing Director of Vision Mechatronics, Dattatreya Gaur, CEO of Bosch Global Software Technologies, Pawan Mulukutla, Director (Integrated Transport, Electric Mobility and Hydrogen) at WRI India and Randheer Singh, Director, E-Mobility programme at NITI Aayog.

Dr Elizabeth Connelly, Energy Technology and Transport Analyst in the Energy Technology Policy Division of the IEA presented a global overview of GEVO 2022 before doing a deep dive on India-specific findings from the publication. In 2021, 10% of cars sold globally were electric, with China accounting for half the sales. The driving forces for strong growth in EVs have been:

• positive regulatory environments, particularly in Europe;
• increasing market maturity in markets like China, which saw a decrease in national EV subsidies; and
• increasingly strong ambition by automakers as they introduce new and updated EV models.

Asia, especially China, Vietnam, and India, continued to dominate the electric 2/3 wheeler market segment in 2021. 

NITI Aayog’s Joseph Teja, in his keynote address, highlighted that strong policies, such as extending FAME 2 to 2024, increasing subsidies for e-2 wheelers by 50%, proposed battery swapping policy, and revised guidelines on EV charging infrastructure have led to an increase in 2-wheeler EV sales such that 43% of the FAME 2 target has been achieved from 3.5% a year earlier.  He said India’s long-term commitment to EVs was driven by factors such as India’s updated NDC commitment of net zero by 2070 and developmental and economic objectives to increase the number of green jobs and attract clean sustainable investments. As per the IEA’s Stated Policy Scenario (STEPS), which reflects current policy frameworks, EV sales across all modes (including 2/3 wheelers) are expected to account for more than 30% of the overall Indian market in 2030. In line with ongoing trends, the share of e-2/3 wheelers alone increases to 50% in STEPS by 2030 and almost 60% when considering India’s electrification ambitions. Electrifying trucks is a challenge in all scenarios and kickstarting the electric truck market is a key recommendation of GEVO 2022.

Another main recommendation of GEVO 2022 is to focus on expanding EV infrastructure and smart grids. During the panel discussion, Vivekananda Hallekere of Bounce said India should focus on building a charging network that is flexible and adaptable to new battery technology, and ensuring that EV prices (particularly e-2/3 wheeler segments) continue to fall, given the price sensitive nature of Indian consumers. Hallekere stressed the need for innovation on removable batteries and for building battery swapping networks with flexible technologies, given that battery chemistry is always changing. Dr. Rashi Gupta of Vision Mechatronics mentioned that while looking at repurposing and reusing batteries, India also needs to focus on having a standardised system to maintain battery quality, especially since the quality of materials becomes critical in standardising the second life of batteries.

For larger EVs, Pawan Mulukutla of WRI noted the particular importance of e-bus deployment, with the opportunity for cities to work together to develop stable technology and infrastructure. Dattatreya Gaur of Bosch Global Software Technologies said the potential for electrifying trucks is quite big in India, but would require the development of new technologies like hydrogen which is not dependent on battery storage. He said the Draft Hydrogen Policy by the Government of India as a good first step.

The panel also discussed the importance of policy frameworks. Randheer Singh of NITI Aayog said that policies such as the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles (FAME) scheme and those announced by 22 state governments provide fiscal and non-fiscal benefits that will promote the growth of private road transport. He suggested the need for bilateral and multilateral strategic cooperation frameworks to secure EV supply chain. Given the price sensitive nature of the Indian consumer, Singh also discussed the need for international finance to create a green infrastructure asset class at the state level through instruments such as blended finance and ESG. He mentioned other policy measures, including the Draft Battery Policy and the creation of a unique identification number for the repurposing of batteries as the first steps towards creating an efficient EV ecosystem. Hallekere noted that subsidies, while effective, are not a long-term solution but merely boosters. Without subsidies, the price of 2-wheeler EVs in India are much higher than internal combustion engine vehicles, and EV vehicle ownership will only increase if they are cost competitive. This could be also be achieved by decoupling the battery from the EV, increasing people’s access to loans and other measures to improve accessibility.