23 May 2025 15:00—16:00
Critical Minerals
A new frontier for global energy security
Critical minerals are essential for a range of today’s energy technologies and for the broader economy. For example, lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance. Rare earth elements are essential for the permanent magnets used in wind turbines and EV motors.
Electricity networks need a huge amount of aluminium and copper, the latter of which is the cornerstone of all electricity-related technologies. As demand for these materials grows strongly, their strategic importance has also increased – and policy makers have made ensuring secure and resilient mineral supply chains a major priority.
Key findings
Diversification is the cornerstone of energy security, yet critical minerals are moving in the opposite direction
Critical mineral markets have become more concentrated, not less, particularly when it comes to refining and processing. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements, the average market share of the top three refining nations rose to 86% in 2024 from around 82% in 2020, with almost all supply growth coming from the single top supplier: Indonesia for nickel, and China for all others.
While policy makers have woken up to the challenges, based on today’s policy settings and investment trends, the average share of the top three suppliers is projected to decline only marginally over the next decade, effectively returning to the concentration levels seen in 2020.
While policy makers have woken up to the challenges, based on today’s policy settings and investment trends, the average share of the top three suppliers is projected to decline only marginally over the next decade, effectively returning to the concentration levels seen in 2020.
Geographical distribution of refined material production for key minerals in the base case
OpenDespite narrowing supply gaps for some minerals, risks remain
Demand growth for key energy minerals has been strong in recent years. However, major supply increases – led by China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – have put downward pressure on prices, especially for battery metals.
Yet looking at supply and demand balances over the next decade, there are also risks. Investment momentum in critical minerals has weakened: spending grew by just 5% in 2024, down from an increase of 14% in 2023. Exploration activity plateaued in 2024, marking a pause in the upward trend seen since 2020, and start-up funding showed signs of a slowdown.
Yet looking at supply and demand balances over the next decade, there are also risks. Investment momentum in critical minerals has weakened: spending grew by just 5% in 2024, down from an increase of 14% in 2023. Exploration activity plateaued in 2024, marking a pause in the upward trend seen since 2020, and start-up funding showed signs of a slowdown.
Investment in critical minerals mining, 2021-2024
OpenScaling up recycling could dramatically reduce critical mineral mining needs
New policies and facilities to support the recycling of critical minerals could significantly reduce potential strains on supply as demand increases, IEA analysis shows.
The growth in new mining supply for critical minerals could be brought down by between 25% and 40% by mid-century by scaling up recycling. In a scenario in which countries around the world deliver on all announced national pledges on energy and climate, recycling reduces new mine development needs by 40% for copper and cobalt, and by 25% for lithium and nickel by 2050.
The growth in new mining supply for critical minerals could be brought down by between 25% and 40% by mid-century by scaling up recycling. In a scenario in which countries around the world deliver on all announced national pledges on energy and climate, recycling reduces new mine development needs by 40% for copper and cobalt, and by 25% for lithium and nickel by 2050.
Copper: mining requirements in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2020-2050
OpenIEA's work
Since the IEA published its landmark report on critical minerals in 2021 and received new ministerial mandates from Member governments in March 2022, the Agency has significantly expanded and deepened its work on critical minerals to support policy makers. The IEA began publishing its annual analysis of markets in 2023, when it also hosted a global summit on critical minerals with participants from almost 50 countries.
In late 2024, the IEA held a first-of-its-kind emergency preparedness exercise with governments as part of its expanding Critical Minerals Security Programme, which builds on the Agency’s longstanding experience in safeguarding energy market security. Critical minerals were also a major focus at the Summit on the Future of Energy Security that the IEA co-hosted with the UK government in April 2025.
The 2025 edition of the IEA’s annual Global Critical Minerals Outlook – which includes a detailed assessment of the latest market and investment trends, along with their implications for critical minerals security – also featured new analysis of a broader range of 20 energy-related strategic minerals that play vital roles in the high-tech, aerospace and advanced manufacturing sectors.
Critical minerals have been fully integrated into the IEA’s Global Energy and Climate Model. That means that in addition to the IEA’s annual outlooks on critical minerals, projections for demand and supply are regularly updated and reflected across IEA publications, including the World Energy Outlook and Global EV Outlook. And they are available through the IEA's Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an online tool that allows users to easily access and navigate the latest data.
