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Global Energy and Climate Model Understanding GEC Model scenarios
Overview The IEA’s medium- to long-term outlook publications – including the World Energy Outlook (WEO) and Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) – use a scenario approach relying on the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model to examine future energy trends.Each scenario has the same starting point and is based on the latest data for energy supply and demand, markets, technology costs and policies, as well as the same pathways for future population and economic growth.The energy system described and explored in each scenario evolves in a distinctive pathway that delivers energy services with a different mix of technologies and…
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Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as one of the most consequential technologies of our time. In recent years, the capabilities of AI systems have grown quickly due to improved computing power, a boom in data availability and breakthroughs in the design of AI models, leading to rapid adoption by both businesses and individuals. Though significant uncertainties remain, AI has the potential to transform the energy sector in the coming decade. It is set to drive a surge in electricity demand from data centres around the world while also unlocking significant opportunities to cut costs, enhance competitiveness and reduce emissions.To…
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China’s Official Energy Finance in Emerging and Developing Economies Case studies
China’s outbound energy engagement spans a wide range of technologies, financing structures and institutional actors. While aggregate trends reveal a system that is becoming more diversified, risk-sensitive and commercially oriented, the specific pathways through which Chinese capital supports energy transitions in EMDE become clearer when examined at the project level.The following case studies illustrate this diversity in practice, from large-scale renewable deployment and grid modernisation to industrial decarbonisation, equity participation in regional infrastructure platforms and upstream resource development. Together, they show how different parts of China’s official financing system interact with local conditions, how technical…
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Global Energy Review 2026 CO2 emissions
Energy sector emissions continued to rise in 2025, but regional trends varied markedly Global growth in energy-related CO2 emissions slowed in 2025, rising by around 0.4%, the slowest rate since 2021. Despite this slowdown, total energy-related CO2 emissions increased by around 145 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025, reaching a new high of nearly 38.4 billion tonnes (Gt), and 5% above 2019 levels. The increase coincided with record atmospheric CO2 concentrations of about 427 parts-per-million (ppm), roughly 2.4 ppm higher than in 2024 and around 50% above pre-industrial levels.Emissions from fuel combustion…
- Key findings
- Global trends
- Oil
- Natural gas
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+ 9 pages
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Global EV Outlook 2026 Outlook for electric mobility
Vehicle outlook by mode By 2035, the fleet of EVs across all vehicle types except two/three-wheelers (2/3Ws) exceeds 450 million globally in the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) – more than five times as many EVs as there were at the end of 2025. CO2 and fuel economy standards, especially for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs), are the main driver of rising EV sales outside of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”). In China and a few other emerging markets, the competitive economics of EVs already support continued adoption in the CPS. Elsewhere, however, EV sales stall, particularly…
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Industry
Industry
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Powering Ireland’s Energy Future Executive summary
Ireland faces strategic choices to align its energy, climate and socio-economic goals through 2035 Over the next decade, decision makers in Ireland will need to balance a range of trends and policy ambitions that have strong implications for the power sector. Ireland has set a range of policy goals spanning the next decade, from improving energy security by reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels, to meeting its climate targets, expanding its housing stock, and supporting the growth of digital infrastructure such as data centres. These ambitions all have strong links to the country's power sector, with implications…
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Financing the ASEAN Power Grid Executive summary
Southeast Asia’s electricity sector is on the cusp of major changes that underscore the case for regional integration Rapidly growing electricity demand alongside accelerating momentum behind renewables deployment will require major investment in grids across Southeast Asia. Electricity consumption in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region has increased ninefold since 1990 and is projected to continue to grow at annual rate of 3 to 4% through to 2040, considerably faster than the global average. ASEAN member states have committed to a massive expansion of new generation capacity to meet this demand. By 2040, total generation capacity is…
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Ramping up Heat Pumps in Moldova: A Roadmap Financing the transition
This chapter considers the economics of heat pumps versus gas boilers and biomass stoves. It explores the role of grants and subsidies and how these affect the lifetime cost of owning a heat pump compared to other heating technologies. Different policy options are then discussed, including potential avenues for multi-lateral policy support at both national and local levels. As previously mentioned, a main barrier to heat pump adoption is the high upfront cost relative to prevailing heating technologies. Governments can help to lower this hurdle through mechanisms such as upfront subsidies or grants and low-interest loans. Another way…
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Financing Clean Energy in Africa Clean energy investment landscape: setting the scene
Summary The IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2022 laid out a new scenario – the Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) – which sees the continent achieve by 2030, in full and on time, all of its energy and climate-related goals, including universal energy access and its NDCs.Realising the SAS requires mobilising over USD 200 billion annually by 2030, but energy investment has been declining in Africa and in 2022 was under USD 90 billion. Clean energy spending was a fraction of this at around USD 25 billion – only 2% of the global total despite the recent rise in global clean energy investment. This is far from what…
