Today around 2 billion people lack access to clean cooking and some 730 million remain without electricity – deficits which have far-reaching implications for health, economic opportunity and global development. Since 2010, 1.5 billion people have gained access to clean cooking and 1 billion to electricity, demonstrating that rapid progress is possible. Our new Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services Scenario (ACCESS) outlines a country-by-country pathway to universal access that draws on lessons about what has worked best in recent years. 

Universal clean cooking access is achieved in the ACCESS around 2040. Over 60% of households gaining access to clean cooking do so through the use of liquefied petroleum gas and a further 18% with the use of electricity. Bioethanol, biogas and solid biomass each account for around 4-6% of households that gain access, while natural gas plays a limited role in dense urban areas with planned infrastructure. The benefits of this transition by 2040 are immense: it cuts premature deaths due to household air pollution by almost two-thirds, significantly reduces the time spent cooking, and delivers net emissions reductions of 1.25 gigatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) annually. 

The global electricity access gap closes just after 2035. Over 45% of new connections are from grid extensions; 30% from mini-grids, which are a good match for dense, remote communities; and 25% from stand-alone systems, including solar home systems, which are the best option in areas where grid and mini-grid expansion is unlikely to be feasible in the near term. By 2040, newly connected users add 270 terawatt-hours (TWh) to global electricity demand, contributing up to 45% of the total increase in residential electricity demand in some regions. This is met largely by hydropower, natural gas, and solar photovoltaics (PV), with solar powering most mini-grids and nearly all stand-alone systems. 

Closing the access gap worldwide requires USD 4 billion each year for clean cooking from now until 2040, and around USD 23 billion each year for electricity until 2035. While it is encouraging that private sector involvement is expanding, public and concessional financing remains vital to attract capital to underserved segments, especially in riskier markets where public finances are constrained. 

Expanding energy access can support productivity improvements in agriculture and local industry, helping to drive broader economic and energy demand growth. However, the speed at which energy demand increases once access has been gained may be constrained by the cost of energy, the affordability of new equipment and appliances, grid reliability, and the availability of maintenance services.