The Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC Model) uses macro drivers, techno-economic inputs and policies as input data to design and calculate the scenarios. The values for the different data categories and scenarios used in the GEC Model 2025 can be downloaded here.

In particular more details regarding power generation technology costs for the Current Policies Scenario, the Stated Policies Scenario and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario can be downloaded in excel format, including detailed projections at the 2050 horizon regarding overnight capital costs, annual O&M costs, efficiencies and other contributors to electricity costs at regional and country-level for over 25 power plant types.

The GEC supply modelling relies on estimates of the remaining technically recoverable resource, rather than the (often more widely quoted) numbers for proven reserves. Resource estimates are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty, as well as the distinction in the analysis between conventional and unconventional resource types.

Overall, the remaining technical recoverable resources of fossil fuels remain similar to those in the World Energy Outlook 2024. All fuels are at a level sufficient to meet the projections of global energy demand growth to 2050 in all scenarios. Remaining technically recoverable resources of US tight oil (crude plus condensate) total more than 210 billion barrels. Natural gas resource numbers remain broadly similar to those of last year. Most of the remaining technically recoverable resources lie in the Eurasia, the Middle East and the United States.

World coal resources are made up of various types of coal: around 80% is steam and coking coal and the remainder is lignite. Close to 85% of coal resources are located in Asia and North America.

Overall, the gradual depletion of resources (at a pace that varies by scenario) means that operators have to develop more difficult and complex reservoirs. This tends to push up production costs over time, although this effect is offset by the assumed continuous adoption of new, more efficient production technologies and practices.

Major contributors to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) include: overnight capital costs; capacity factor that describes the average output over the year relative to the maximum rated capacity (typical values provided); cost of fuel inputs; plus operation and maintenance. Economic lifetime assumptions are 25 years for solar PV, and onshore and offshore wind.

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions reflect market data and survey information provided through the Cost of Capital Observatory, with a range of 4-7% for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind and 5-8% for offshore wind. A standard WACC was assumed for nuclear power, coal- and gas-fired power plants (8-9% based on the stage of economic development).

The value-adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) is a metric for competitiveness for power generation technologies, incorporating information on both costs and the value provided to the system. Based on the LCOE, estimates of energy, capacity and flexibility value are incorporated to provide a more complete metric of competitiveness for power generation technologies. The method is explained in the detailed GEC Model documentation.

Fuel, CO₂ and O&M costs vary by scenario and reflect the average over the ten years following the indicated date in the projections.

Solar PV and wind costs do not include the cost of energy storage technologies, such as utility-scale batteries.

The capital costs for nuclear power represent the “nth-of-a-kind” costs for new reactor designs, with substantial cost reductions from the first-of-a-kind projects.

All costs represent fully installed/delivered technologies, not solely the equipment cost, unless otherwise noted. Installed/delivered costs include engineering, procurement and construction costs to install the equipment. Some illustrative examples include the following:

• Iron-based steel production costs display a range considering technology and regional differences and differentiate between conventional and innovative production routes. Conventional routes are unabated blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) and direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF). The innovative routes are BF-BOFs with CCUS, DRI-EAF with CCUS, and 100% electrolytic hydrogen-based DRI-EAF.

• Vehicle costs reflect production costs, not retail prices, to better reflect the cost declines in total cost of manufacturing. Historical values in 2024 have been used for the global average battery pack size. In hybrid cars, the future cost increase is driven by regional fuel economy and emissions standards.

• Electrolyser costs reflect a projected weighted average of installed electrolyser technologies (excluding China, where the modelled costs are lower), including inverters.

• Fuel cell costs are based on stack manufacturing costs only, not installed/delivered costs. The costs provided are for automotive fuel-cell stacks for trucks.

• Utility-scale stationary battery costs reflect the average installed costs of all battery systems rated to provide maximum power output for a four-hour period.

The GEC Model also integrates innovative technologies and individual technology designs that are not yet available on the market at scale by characterising their maturity and expected time of market introduction. For each sector and technology area, new project announcements and important technological developments are tracked in databases that are regularly published.

The modelled scenarios are informed by such detailed technology tracking process. For technology development progress and the time to bring new technologies to markets, the scenarios assume different pace of progress as the support and degree of international cooperation on clean energy innovation increases with the ambition in decarbonisation.

The following databases are particularly relevant for the definition of the different scenarios:

• Clean innovative technologies tracking:

- Clean Technology Guide: interactive database that tracks the technology readiness level (TRL) of nearly 600 individual technology designs and components across the whole energy system that contribute to achieving the goal of net-zero emissions. The guide is updated every year.

- Clean Energy Demonstration Projects Database: launched in 2022 and updated every year, this provides more detailed tracking of the location, status, capacity, timing and funding, of over 500 demonstration projects across the energy sector.

- Clean Energy Market Monitor: launched in 2024, this report aims at providing a timely, high-level overview of key clean energy technology deployment for a selected group of technologies, and assessing the implications for energy markets.

• Hydrogen Production Projects Database: covers all projects commissioned worldwide since 2000 to produce hydrogen for energy or climate-change-mitigation purposes.

• Global EV Outlook: annual publication that identifies and discusses recent policy and market developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support of the members of the Clean Energy Ministerial Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).

- Global EV Data Explorer: Data behind the Global EV Outlook

- Global EV Policy Explorer: highlights current as well as announced key policies and measures that support the deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) and zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by region and country.