Global Energy Review 2020

The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions
GER2020 Abstract cover

Annexes

Methodological note

This release is based on data for the first quarter of 2020 (Q1) from numerous sources, using data available as of mid-April 2020. Data is available for around two-third of global primary energy demand.

In general, the data collected includes the latest monthly IEA country data submissions through end-February and end-March when available; other statistical releases from national administrations around the world; and IEA estimates where official data is missing.

Oil demand data by country issues from the recent market data compiled for the latest monthly IEA Oil Market Report, published on 16 April 2020.

Gas demand data has been collected for around half of global gas demand. Data includes information from the EIA for the United States, transmission system operators in Europe, CQPGX for China, PPAC for India, KOGAS for Korea and LNG import data as a proxy for gas demand in several additional countries.

Coal demand data is derived principally from coal power generation information, with available data covering around two-third of global coal demand.

Data collected for renewable energy production in 2020 was combined with 2019 renewable energy capacity additions in over 100 countries.

Daily, weekly and monthly electricity demand and generation data was compiled from several sources, such as the United States EIA hourly data, ENTSO-E hourly data for Europe, latest monthly submission for OECD countries, National Load Dispatch Centre daily data for India, as well as China and Brazil. Collected electricity demand and generation data covers around three-quarters of global electricity demand.

As a result of possible differences in data collection methodologies and data definitions, real-time and daily data may not match the methodologies used for monthly, quarterly or annual data.

Assessment of the change in electricity demand by sector was based on a detailed load curve matching methodology that tracked changes to the profile of electricity use by sector in certain regions, and then adjusted the shares of electricity demand by sector to match the observed load curve during certain weeks of 2020. Total load curves were normalised to remove the weather effect from assessment of the impact by sector.

The impact of the pandemic on GDP due to the contraction of the sectoral outputs is based on a variety of sources. For countries available1, sectoral and economy-wide impacts were derived from OECD analysis: "Evaluating the initial impact of Covid-19 containment measures on economic activity", 27 March 2020. Data for China, India, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom were complemented by the following reports from: CEBR (2020); INSEE (2020); INSTAT (2020); Dorn et al. (2020); and ADB (2020).

The set of countries mentioned above account for a combined share of more than 80% of global GDP. To calculate the world average, the contraction on annual GDP growth for the rest of the world is assumed at 2% per month of containment measures.

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References
  1. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.